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Wednesday 16th May 2012

Confidence still “weak” despite good figures

by Alan Thornhill

Consumer confidence in Australia is still weak despite a big rate cut, higher family payments lower unemployment, moderate inflation  and higher wages.

Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, described a bare 0.8 per cent rise in the Westpac Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence as “a disappointing result” in these circumstances.

“It follows a surprise 0.5 per cent cut in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank and extensive media coverage that the unemployment rate had fallen from 5.2 to 4.9 per cent, Mr Evans said.

However he admitted that “other factors appear to have offset these positives.”

But another survey, published by the Roy Morgan produced a more positive result.

It showed Consumer Confidence had jumped 5.4 points to  its highest level for three months

The organisation said the biggest boost to confidence, reflected in its survey, had come from more people who now expect better times ahead.

Mr Evans noted  that home loan rates had fallen by an average of just 0.37 per cent and there had been “increasingly disturbing” news from Europe.

The Bureau of Statistics reported that home lending dropped by 0.3 per cent in March from the February level.

It also reported that hourly wage rates, measured on the Bureau’s wage price index, rose 0.9 per cent in the March quarter and 3.6 per cent in the 12 months to the end of March.

Prices, measured on the Consumer Price Index, rose by just 0.1 per cent in the same quarter and 1.6 per cent over the year.

The Bureau also reported today that, on original figures, the value of Australia’s imports fell to $18.8 billion in April from $20.8 billion in March.

However, worries over Europe increased overnight, Australian time, when Greek political leaders again failed to reach agreement on a new government for the country.

Fresh elections are now likely in Greece, probably next month.

And Greece might well be forced off the Euro.

 

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Wednesday 16th May 2012

Increased family payments to start now

by Alan Thornhill

Almost 1.7  low and middle income families will start receiving increased payments from today, to offset  the new carbon tax which starts on July 1.

Families Minister Jenny Macklin said about $325 million in household assistance will be going out to them.

Those on Family Tax Benefit Part A will start receiving Clean Energy Advance payments of up to $110 for each child.

Those on Family Tax Benefit Part B would get up to $69, Ms Macklin said.

“This payment will be paid straight into families’ bank accounts over the coming few weeks,” she added.

Pensioners, students and other eligible payment recipients would also get increases in their support payments before the end of June.

“And in July Australian workers will benefit from new tax cuts,” Ms Macklin said.

“Labor understands the pressures on working families – that’s why we’ve cut taxes, increased family payments and child care assistance and delivered Paid Parental Leave,” she added.

“And from next year we’ll be delivering even more to help families balance their budgets.

That would include:-

  • A new Schoolkids Bonus for more than 1.3 million families – $410 a year for each child in primary school and $820 a year for each child in secondary school to help with education costs and
  • A boost to Family Tax Benefit Part A for all 1.5 million eligible families – for families on the lowest incomes with two or more children an increase of $600 a year, and $300 a year for one child families.

Families can find out more byvisiting  the australia.gov.au/householdassistance  website or calling 13 24 68, Ms Macklin said.

 

 

 

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Wednesday 9th May 2012

He cooked the books:Abbott

by Alan Thornhill

Tony Abbott said the government had cooked the books to produce a “wafer thin” surplus of $1.5 billion.

“…even this surplus is a surplus based on cooked books,” the Opposition Leader told reporters.

“… the Treasurer has artificially moved spending out of next year into this year and into the year after, “ Mr Abbott added.

“… and he’s artificially moved spending off-budget that should be on-budget.

“So, this is a cooked books surplus based on fiddled figures and, yet again, no one should take this government seriously,” the Opposition Leader said.

“…what this government has actually delivered is the four biggest deficits in Australian history,” Mr Abbott said.

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Tuesday 8th May 2012

A bid for your vote

by Alan Thornhill

The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, made a powerful bid to reverse the Federal government’s sagging electoral fortunes, with the budget he has just delivered.

It was based on the government’s promise to spread the benefits of the mining boom.

“The government will deliver a new Benefits of the Boom package,” Mr Swan said.

Much of what is in that package had already been made public.

A new school kids’ bonus, for example

That’s $420 a year for primary school students and  $820 for each child in high school.

Increases in Family Benefits and Pensions.

And a tripling of the tax free threshold from July 1 this year, delivering tax cuts to all earning up to $80,000 a year.

The first stage of a new national disability scheme, too,  and a dental scheme to help those on low incomes get their teeth fixed.

More choice for older Australians, too, with new aged care reforms.

These were just some of the clearly popular measures  Mr Swan announced.

Even though the Government is not due to face voters until next year.

Related stories:

  1. “Battlers budget:” the highlights
  2. Why your vote matters
Tuesday 8th May 2012

The budget: What he said

by Alan Thornhill

The Treasurer Wayne Swan said his fifth budget would produce a “stronger, fairer” Australia.
The 2012-13 Budget will keep the Australian economy among the strongest in the world. It will deliver four years of growing surpluses, real relief for cost of living pressures and major social reforms to deliver a fair go for more Australians.

This Budget deals with today’s challenges and builds the foundations for the future.

Australia’s economy is the standout performer in the developed world. We have avoided recession, kept Australians in jobs and are now bringing the budget back to surplus, ahead of every single major advanced economy.

Returning the budget to surplus is central to our plan to build an even stronger economy. It sends a very clear signal to the world about our strong economic fundamentals, and gives the Reserve Bank flexibility to cut interest rates further if it thinks that is needed.

While uncertainties remain in the global economy, Australia is also in the right place at the right time, as the weight of global economic activity shifts towards our region.

This is creating vast opportunities for Australian businesses, and driving a huge pipeline of investment that will support economic growth into the future, however it is also creating challenging conditions for parts of our patchwork economy.

But our success in supporting the economy and jobs during the global financial crisis means the economy faces the future from a position of strength.

This Budget builds on this success by making the critical investments that Australia needs today, to increase productivity, boost workforce participation and encourage businesses to invest and grow.

It helps businesses facing pressures in our patchwork economy with an innovative loss carry back initiative to help them through hard times and encourage them to invest in order to prepare for the future.

Importantly, the Budget delivers much-needed cost of living relief for Australian families – particularly on low and middle incomes.

It also takes the first steps towards important social reforms – in particular, a National Disability Insurance Scheme – as well as Aged Care reform and a blitz on dental waiting lists

This Budget gets the long term settings right so that we can convert the significant opportunities of the Asian Century into lasting prosperity over the medium and long term.

Return to surplus and fiscal update

Returning the budget to surplus in 2012-13 is appropriate given the strong fundamentals in our domestic economy and the challenges in the global economy.

Australia’s economy is over 7 per cent larger than it was before the GFC, while many other countries are still making up lost ground, with some now re-entering recession.

The Australian economy is expected to grow around trend over the next two years, outperforming every major advanced economy over the next two years. Real GDP growth is forecast to be 3¼ per cent in 2012-13 and 3 per cent in 2013-14.

We have an unemployment rate below every major advanced economy in the world bar one, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain low with a ’5′ in front of it.

Since Labor took office, more than 750,000 jobs have been created, in contrast to the 27 million jobs that have been lost across the world over the same period.

We have an economy with solid growth, low unemployment, and a record pipeline of investment in resources of around $455 billion, while at the same time achieving contained inflation.

The value of our economy is now more than $1.4 trillion, up from just $1.1 trillion when Labor came to office. This is an extraordinary achievement given it has come during the most destructive period in the global economy since the Great Depression.

Just as the Government stepped in to support the economy and protect jobs during the GFC, the Government is stepping back, ensuring that we don’t generate price pressures in the economy.

This continues to give the RBA flexibility to reduce interest rates if it thinks that is needed, which is important for workers and businesses under financial pressure.

Returning to surplus also locks in confidence, and is Australia’s best defence at a time when the global economy is changing dramatically. It creates a buffer in uncertain times and is a very clear sign of our strong economy.

The Government’s consistent and credible budget strategy has seen Australia achieve the gold-plated AAA credit rating from all three major global ratings agencies for the first time in our history.

However structural changes in our economy have reduced the Government’s revenue base over the short and medium term, with heightened global turmoil towards the end of last year contributing to weaker revenues than expected at the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook in November last year.

Downward revisions to revenue collections have hit the budget balance by a further $12 billion across both 2011-12 and 2012-13 compared to the last forecasts in the mid-year budget update in November. This obviously makes the task of returning to surplus that much harder and takes the total write-down in tax collections since the 2008-09 Budget to around $150 billion over five years. This means that tax as a proportion of GDP in 2011-12 and the previous two years is the lowest it has been since 1993-94.

Taxes as a proportion of the economy remain below 23 per cent of GDP across the forward estimates. This is well within the Government’s commitment to keep taxes below 23.7 per cent of GDP.

The Government has made responsible and targeted savings to ensure Australia’s public finances and economy remain strong.

These responsible decisions improve the sustainability of government finances over the forward estimates, while protecting low and middle income earners and the frontline services Australian families rely on in health and education.

Our strict fiscal discipline means that payments as a proportion of the economy are expected to remain below 24 per cent from 2012-13 to the end of the forward estimates. The last time there were four successive years with the payments to GDP ratio below 24 per cent was more than 30 years ago.

As a result, the budget is on track for a surplus of $1.5 billion in 2012-13, growing over the forward estimates.

Cost of living relief and Benefits of the Boom Package

The Government will deliver a new Benefits of the Boom package – including major tax reforms, increases in the pension and family payments – to help families with the cost pressures they face every day.

This package includes $1.8 billion in extra support for families through more generous family payments, with more than 1.5 million families receiving a boost to their Family Tax Benefit (FTB) Part A from 1 July next year.

More than a million families will receive an increase of at least $300.

This assistance builds on the tripling of the tax free threshold from 1 July this year, delivering tax cuts to all taxpayers earning up to $80,000.

This is the largest increase in the history of the tax free threshold which will see up to an extra one million people not having to lodge a return.

Around 1.4 million Australians will benefit from the introduction of a new lump sum Supplementary Allowance to help recipients of Parenting Payment and allowances manage unexpected living expenses.

The payments of a total of $210 a year for singles or $350 a year for couples ($175 each; $87.50 per instalment) will indexed by the Consumer Price Index to keep pace with inflation, will not be means tested and is tax-free.

The lump sum payments will be paid twice yearly – $105 per instalment for singles and $87.50 per instalment for each person who is a member of a couple.

The Benefits of the Boom package is funded by revenue from the Minerals Resource Rent Tax arising from the rejection by the Opposition and the Greens of the planned company tax cut.

The Government is also providing 1.3 million Australian families with children at school with a new cash payment to help make ends meet.

Each year, families will receive a new Schoolkids Bonus worth:

  • $410 for each child in primary school
  • $820 for each child in high school.

This new guaranteed payment will help the families of 2.2 million school kids pay for uniforms, books, school excursions, stationery, and other costs like music lessons and sports registration fees.

The Government’s fiscal strategy of returning the budget to surplus ensures the Reserve Bank continues to have the flexibility for further interest rate cuts if it thinks that’s necessary.

Lower interest rates provide relief for workers and businesses right across Australia.

The Reserve Bank’s official interest rate is now 300 basis points lower than when the Government came to office.

Its current rate of 3.75 per cent is lower than at any time under the previous government.

A family with a mortgage of $300,000 is now paying around $3,500 a year less in repayments now than when the previous government left office.

Supporting those most in need: the first stage of a National Disability Insurance Scheme

The Gillard Government will kick start the most fundamental social policy reform since Medicare in this Budget, with a $1 billion investment to launch the first stage of Australia’s first ever National Disability Insurance Scheme.

A full NDIS will give Australians with a significant and permanent disability the peace of mind to know their needs will be addressed with dignity, no matter where they live, what their circumstances or how they acquired their disability.

The Government has committed $1 billion in this Budget to fund launch locations of the NDIS, delivering care and support over a person’s lifetime, as recommended in the Productivity Commission’s landmark report.

From July 2013, launch locations around the country will start to lift the standard of help for around 10,000 people with a significant and permanent disability – growing to 20,000 people from mid-2014.

People with significant and permanent disability will have their needs assessed, and start to receive personalised care and support.

The Government will negotiate locations with States and Territories who are willing to play their part, and will continue to work with all states and territories on the design, governance and funding arrangements for the full scheme.

The lessons we learn from the first stage will inform our conversations with the states and territories on the national roll-out of a National Disability Insurance Scheme.

National Dental Scheme

There is a direct correlation between those on lower incomes and below average standards of dental health. To address this issue Government is delivering $346 million to help reduce waiting lists for those on low incomes trying to access dental services in public clinics. This will deliver dental services to the estimated 400,000 people on public waiting lists.

In addition, the Government will provide funding for health workforce initiatives to support the relocation of dentists to work in rural and regional areas where there is a shortage of dentists. The Government will also provide infrastructure funding for dental clinics to expand capacity to deliver these services.

Continuing our Strong Investment in Infrastructure

This Government will continue its strong record of investing in infrastructure to expand our productive capacity, relieve congestion and improve road safety.

As a result of this Budget, all of the projects assessed as ‘Ready to Proceed’ on Infrastructure Australia’s 2009 priority list have now been funded. Under the Nation Building programs, the Government is investing $36 billion in land transport infrastructure over six years through to 2013-14.

The Government will fund a range of additional measures in the 2012-13 Budget.

In this Budget, the Gillard Government will provide an extra $3.6 billion for the full duplication of the Pacific Highway by the end of 2016, provided it is matched by the NSW Government.

The Government will also continue funding for critical road safety programs, including $350 million per year for the Roads to Recovery program and $60 million per year for the Black Spots program.

The Government will support the development of the Moorebank Intermodal Terminal, which will help to reduce business costs and relieve bottlenecks and urban congestion in the Port Botany precinct.

The Government will provide $232 million toward the Torrens and Goodwood rail project to help ease congestion on Adelaide’s suburban and freight rail networks.

The Government is continuing the roll-out of the National Broadband Network. Over the next three years, NBN Co will commence work in over 1,500 communities covering 3.5 million premises throughout Australia.

Living Longer. Living Better: delivering overdue reform of the aged care system

The Gillard Government will deliver landmark changes to the aged care system, to ensure older Australians have more choice and higher quality care.

People have overwhelmingly said they want to age well in their own homes, so under the $3.7 billion Living Longer. Living Better package more people will get to stay in their home for longer. The package includes around $577 million in new investment.

The Government is increasing the number of Home Care Packages by two thirds – from around 59,900 to almost 100,000. Contributions for Home Care will also be reformed to make them more equitable from 1 July 2014. Nobody in the system prior to that time will pay more, and full pensioners will continue to pay no more than the basic fee.

For those that do need to move into residential aged care, they will have more choice about how they pay for the residential aged care place. Contributions for residential care will be made more equitable and sustainable, with reforms to commence on 1 July 2014 and only applying to new or significantly refurbished facilities. People will be protected by a $25,000 annual cap on care fees in residential care and a $60,000 lifetime cap on care fees across both residential and home care.

The Government will also redirect $1.2 billion to improve the aged care workforce, a critical element of ensuring a sustainable, high quality aged care system.

Helping businesses with an economy in transition

The 2012-13 Budget delivers major new benefits for Australian businesses, many of which are facing serious pressures in our patchwork economy.

Australia’s 2.7 million small businesses are the engine room of our economy, employing almost 5 million Australian workers, or nearly half of the private sector workforce across the country.

The Gillard Government is committed to helping Australian small businesses grow, prosper and create jobs. In the depths of the worst global recession in 75 years, Labor acted decisively to keep the doors of small business open through targeted fiscal stimulus, bank guarantees to secure the flow of credit to small business, and through our highly successful $3.7 billion small business investment allowance.

The Gillard Government will introduce a loss carry back scheme to provide immediate tax relief for businesses which report a loss.

In its first four years, this major tax reform will provide assistance to around 110,000 companies struggling with the challenges of an economy in transition, helping them ride out difficult times and invest for the future.

Currently businesses are able to carry forward losses to offset future profits and therefore reduce their tax bills.

This reform will allow businesses to ‘carry back’ their losses, applying them to their previous tax paid, and receive a refund on some of that tax paid.

The 2012-13 Budget also funds major tax breaks for Australian small businesses using the proceeds of the Minerals Resources Rent Tax. Together with our reforms to put a price on carbon, the MRRT means that from 1 July this year, small businesses will be able to instantly write-off any new business asset worth up to $6,500, for as many assets as they purchase. This important measure will be worth more than $1 billion to Australian small businesses in 2013-14 alone.

From 1 July this year, we will also let small businesses instantly write-off the first $5,000 of a motor vehicle. We recognise that for many small businesses their biggest asset is a ute or van. This very significant tax break will help free up cash flow and encourage businesses to reinvest and grow.

In the 2012-13 Budget, the Government is also extending its highly successful Small Business Advisory Service program with $27.5 million over four years to continue supporting Australia’s small businesses with vital advice and assistance.

The Gillard Government is also establishing the first Australian Small Business Commissioner who will be a point of contact for small business services and information.

The 2012-13 Budget builds on the Government’s strong track record of managing the economy in the interests of working Australians, growing our nation’s productive capacity and building the foundations for a prosperous future.

While our political opponents talk Australia down, we believe our country has a bright future.

We are investing in difficult long-term reforms such as the NDIS, aged care reform, putting a price on carbon, the Minerals Resource Rent Tax, the NBN and improvements to the tax system.

These are initiatives that will ensure Australians can make the most of the opportunities ahead in the Asian Century while staying true to the things Labor has always stood for – front-line services for working Australians, jobs and help for those who need it most.

This is a fair and balanced budget in the interests of working Australians that will ensure our economy remains the standout performer in the developed world.

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Tuesday 8th May 2012

“Battlers budget:” the highlights

by Alan Thornhill

The Federal  Treasurer Wayne Swan says the $1.5 billion surplus – at the heart of his fifth budget,  would be the “foundation” of the government’s plan to spread the benefits of the mining boom.

Delivering his budget speech in Federal parliament, Mr Swan said:’This is a budget about discipline and restraint, but also about priorities.

“”I am proud to announce a$3.6 billion spread the wealth package,”  he added.

Mr Swan confirmed that the 1 per cent tax cut, planned for business, would be directed to low and middle income families instead.

He blamed the opposition for that reversal.

“We wanted to do more,” he said.

But the opposition had prevented that.

The highlights Mr Swan announced, in what he called his “Battlers Budget” included:-

* A new Benefits of the boom package.  Mr Swan said this would include major tax reforms and increases to pensions and family payments.

* The first stage of  new national disability insurance scheme.

* A national dental scheme, to help those on low incomes.

* More strong investment in infrastructure.

* Overdue reforms, that would give older Australians more choice in aged care and

* New tax incentives for small business.

 

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Sunday 6th May 2012

Two budget night boosts

by Alan Thornhill

There will be good news for families and business, in Tuesday night’s budget, despite the heavy cuts imposed, to produce a surplus.

The Federal government announced both measures, in carefully timed statements, on Sunday.

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard said that, from January 1 next year, the government would introduce a “schoolkids’ bonus.”

That would be worth $410 a year, for each child in primary school and $820 a year, for each child in secondary school.

Ms Gillard said the documents the Treasurer, Wayne Swan, would bring into Parliament, would reflect  “a traditional Labor” strategy.

Mr Swan also said there would also be extra “tax relief for businesses in our patchwork economy.”

“This new initiative will allow businesses to also ‘carry back’ their losses, to offset past profits and get a refund of tax previously paid on that profit,” Mr Swan said.

“In doing so, this reform will mean businesses can use their tax losses now – when they need to – rather than in the future when their businesses are performing better,” he added.

The new schoolkids’ bonus will replace the present Education Tax Refund, from the start of next year.

“ Replacing the old system with this new payment means one million families will receive more cash – a typical family will get more than $720 extra each year ,” Ms Gillard said.

“As part of the transition to the new Schoolkids Bonus, the Education Tax Refund for 2011-12 will be paid out in full to all eligible families as a lump sum payment in June,” she added.

“This means families will receive their full Education Tax Refund entitlement ahead of tax time – so parents won’t have to worry about keeping receipts or making claims when they do their tax this year.,” the Prime Minister said.

She said the new bonus would cost an extra $400 million a year, on top of the$830 million already allocated for the Education Tax Refund.

Mr Swan said the introduction of the loss carry back system that he announced would implement “another recommendation” of the Australia’s Future Tax System review.

“In its first 4 years, this major tax reform is estimated to provide much-needed assistance to nearly 110,000 companies struggling with these challenges of an economy in transition, helping them ride out difficult times and invest for the future,” he added.

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Wednesday 2nd May 2012

Living:a little less expensive for many

by Alan Thornhill

You may not have noticed, but the cost of living for millions of Australian families has  eased over recent months.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics says an index reflecting the living costs of working families fell by 0.4 per cent, in the first three months of this year.

It said this was mainly due to falls in interest charges, the price of fruit and lower prices for international travel and holidays.

However those falls were offset by higher prices for pharmaceutical products and higher education.

And the costs these families have faced rose by 1.2 per cent over the 12 months to the end of March.

The broader consumer price index rose by 0.1 per cent in the March quarter and 1.6 per cent over the year.

The Bureau also reported that Age Pensioners faced cost increases of 0.1 per cent in the March quarter and 1.1 per cent through the year.

Self funded retirees saw their costs fall by 0.5 per cent in the March quarter, but rise by 1.3 per cent over the year.

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Profile

Alan ThornhillAlan Thornhill is a parliamentary press gallery journalist. Private Briefing is updated daily with Australian personal finance news, analysis, and commentary.

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