Confidence slips as…

Australians are now deeply worried about their country’s economic prospects over the coming five years.

This was the main reason for a fall in consumer confidence, registered in a Roy Morgan survey, that has just been published.

Gary Morgan, who released its results, suggested that the Reserve Bank’s decision this week to keep interest rates on hold might well have been mistimed..

“It can only be hoped that the Reserve Bank’s failure to act early is not seen later as a policy error,” Mr Morgan said.

The Housing Industry Association also argues that Australia’s interest rates should have been cut.

“New home building has been hampered by interest rates that have been too high for too long…” Andrew Harvey, a senior HIA economist said.

A HIA study, also published today, warned that Australia’s builders still  face “further deterioration” in their industry in the months ahead.

It predicted a 5.9 per cent fall in new housing starts this year, after a fall of 12.8 per cent last year.

The Bureau of Statistics also reported that Australia’s trade was once again in the red, in February, despite a huge surge in wheat exports that month.

Exports fell by 2 per cent, on seasonally adjusted figures that month, as commodity prices weakened and demand eased.

The Bureau also reported that Australians spent 4 per cent less on imports in February, than they they had the previous month.

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Your broadband:the best deal promised

The Federal government says final approval of the separation of Telstra means that Australians will get the best possible deals on their communication services.

The Prime Minister Julia Gillard said that approval, by the ACCC is  “a major landmark for the nation’s telecommunications industry.”

“This means for the first time in Australia’s history, telecommunications providers will compete on a level playing field,” Ms Gillard said.
“Consumers are set to benefit from this competition as retailers compete evenly and fiercely to give customers the best and most innovative services, at the best price,”  she added.

“By structurally separating Telstra, the Government has finally fixed the wrongs of past governments.

“Telstra was structured and sold in a way that was bad for consumers, bad for competition and bad for the economy.

“For consumers, this means the Government has secured the best outcome for their telecommunications services by locking in maximum competition – now and into the future,” Ms Gillard said.

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Higher rates? You should know today

Australian families will find out today whether their home loan repayments are likely to rise.

The ANZ bank has signalled that it will make an announcement then.

The three other big banks will be watching closely.

Meanwhile, the Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has some advice for Australians who find that they are expected to pay more.

Put bluntly, it is “walk.”

“We’ve empowered the consumer,” Mr Swan said.

“So if the bank takes a decision with which they disagree they can walk down the road and get a better deal.

“ The standard variable rate on average from the major banks at the moment is 7.3 per cent.

“You can get far better deals than that elsewhere in the financial system right now,” Mr Swan said.

Where?

He had some hints to offer about that, too.

“We’ve strengthened the credit unions,” Mr Swan said.

“We’ve strengthened the smaller banks.

“What I want to see is red hot competition out there.

“That’s what we need in this system,” the Treasurer said.

Once again, Mr Swan described Australia’s big four banks are “extremely profitable.”

“So the notion that our banks can cry poor in this environment is simply not credible,” he added.

The banks are insisting though that they must be able to cover the now higher costs of the funds they borrow overseas, to lend to Australian home buyers and small businesses.

The Reserve Bank acknowledged that Australia’s banks are, indeed,  having to meet higher costs of this kind.

It did that when it surprised markets on Tuesday by keeping its marker rate at 4.25 per cent.

One well placed source said offshore funding accounted for about 20 per cent of the funds raised for  bank lending.

He estimated that this would add at least 0.1 per cent to their costs.

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Rates on hold – for now

The Reserve Bank has surprised many economists by leaving its marker interest rate on hold at 4.25 per cent.

Another small cut had been widely expected.

However, the Bank’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, said  a “moderate” economic expansion is occurring in the United States.

He said too that  “acute financial pressures” in Europe  had been “alleviated considerably” late last year.

Mr Stevens also said that the two rate cuts, that the bank announced late last year, had left the rates Australia’s borrowers pay close to their “medium term average.”

“With (domestic) growth expected to be close to trend and inflation close to target, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy was appropriate for the moment,” the Reserve Bank Governor added.

The decision has, at least, postponed a looming stand off between the Federal government and Australia’s big four banks.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, had called on those banks to pass on any rate cut in full.

He said that  banks which did not do so would be acting to protect their “huge profitability.”

The banks might well have resisted that demand, if the Reserve Bank had cut its marker rate.

Bank executives, including Westpac’s chief, Gail Kelly, argue that the costs Australia’s banks now incur, raising funds for home and business loans, has risen as a result of the European debt crisis.

The risk of an all out confrontation between the Federal government and the banks eased when the Reserve Bank kept rates on hold.

Mr Stevens did admit that more needs to be done to bring Europe’s debt problems under control,

“Much remains to be done to put European sovereigns and banks on a sound footing, but some progress has been made,” he said.

Mr Stevens admitted, though, that financial market sentiment “remains skittish.”

He also said : “information on the Australian economy continues to suggest growth close to trend,

Mr Stevens admitted, though, that differences between sectors still persist.

“Labour market conditions softened during 2011 and the unemployment rate increased slightly in mid year, “ he said.

However unemployment had been steady over recent months.

Consumer price inflation “has declined as expected,” he added,

Mr Stevens said that had happened as fresh food prices eased, as the large rises resulting  from last year’s floods, passed.

“Year-ended CPI inflation will fall further over the next quarter or two,” he added.

“In underlying terms, inflation is around 2½ per cent,” Mr Stevens said.

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Australia’s trade softens

Australia’s trade weakened in the final three months of last year, with the prices we get for our iron ore, wheat and wool all falling.

The Bureau of Statistics reports that the price of the goods we export  fell by 1.5  pe r cent, in the December quarter.

But import prices rose by 2.5 per cent in that time, as oil prices continued to rise sharply.

Our performance over the full year, though, was better.

The prices we receive for our exports rose by 14.3 per cent in 2011.

Import prices also rose, in that time, but only by 4.7 per cent.

Worries over the instabilities flowing from Europe’s debt worries are believed to have contributed to the softening, which appeared in the final months of last year.

Recent  predictions suggest this squeeze could tighten, even more, in the year ahead.

The price of the fuels Australia imports has been rising very sharply.

They rose by 5.6 per cent in the final three months of  last year – and by 29.6 per cent over the 12 months to the end of December.

What, though, of the detail?

The Bureau reports that:-

Imported fuel prices rose by 5.5 per cent in the December quarter.

Over the year, imported fuel prices leapt by 29.6 per cent.

The Bureau also said the price of imported clothes rose 5.8 per cent in the December quarter.

It said the depreciation of the Australian dollar against some of our major trading currencies had contributed to these rises.

The Bureau noted that the fall in Australia’s export prices, in the final three months of last year had been driven mainly by falls in the prices received for metal ores, cereals and textile fibres.

It said these falls had been partly offset by rises in the prices received for gold.

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Australia piles up trade surpluses

Australia has just chalked up its ninth consecutive trade surplus, with exports exceeding imports by  $1.38 billion in November.

This result appeared figures the Australian Bureau of Statistics published today.

The Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade was delighted, noting that this was the nation’s ninth consecutive monthly trade surplus.

It hailed that as “ a solid performance in the face of continuing global economic uncertainty. “

In its statement, the department said a 32 per cent rise in exports of non-monetary gold had partially offset by lower exports of metal ores and minerals.

This had boosted total exports, that month.

The Department also noted that exports of manufactured goods had risen by 4 per cent, with exports of transport equipment up 10 per cent.

Rural exports rose 1 per cent, with shipments of cereal grains and preparations up 16 per cent.

Exports of metal ores and minerals fell 4 per cent in November, as shipments of iron ores and concentrates fell 22 per cent on lower volumes and prices.

Australia’s merchandise exports to North Asia were down 8 per cent in November, although a 7 per cent increase in total exports to the Republic of Korea was driven by a sharp rise in coal exports.

Services exports fell 2 per cent and services imports rose 1 per cent in November.

The rise in total goods and services imports was driven by a 6 per cent rise in capital goods imports, the Department said.

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Banks skin farmers

Australia’s banks are holding out on the nation’s farmers.

Although the Reserve Bank has now cut official interest rates by a total of 50 basis points, over November and December, the banks have passed on only a fraction of that cut, at best, to their rural customers.

Yet it is those very farmers who have  produced the hams and turkeys that the bankers, themselves, will enjoy at Christmas.

One financier, Suncorp Agribusiness, stands out, in the results of a survey that the National Farmers Federation has just published.

It – alone – has passed on the cuts, in full.

The Federation said “Suncorp Agribusiness reduced its term loan rate by 0.25 per cent in November and another 0.25 per cent in December, matching the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate cuts.”

The Federation also said Four other banks, ANZ Agribusiness, Bananacoast Community Credit Union, Bendigo Bank and Westpac Agribusiness also reduced their term loan or overdraft rates in December by between 0.03 per cent and 0.25 per cent.

But it noted that among the big four banks, only the ANZ had also reduced its rates last month.

John McKillop, who chairs the Federation’s Economics Committee said: “We…. appreciate that unstable financial markets continue to dominate headlines, and that the economic turmoil in Europe is having an impact on credit markets both at home and abroad.

“However, in saying that, the NFF is keen to ensure that Australian farmers are getting the best possible deal from their financial lenders, and that these lenders are competing aggressively for their agribusiness customers.

“That’s why we created the Agribusiness Loan Monitor – to provide transparency for farmers as to how the banks are adjusting their agribusiness loan rates and to help them make informed decisions about their finances,” Mr McKillop said.

Get the full picture.

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More rate cuts likely

More interest rate cuts are likely.

The Reserve Bank admits, in a bulletin just released, that it has been maintaining a “mildly restrictive” stance in its monetary policy.

However that might not be necessary in future.

The bank says that while Australia’s inflation is “expected to pick up a little” it should also remain consistent with its target rate.

The bank aims to keep Australia’s underlying inflation  within a 2 -3 per cent range, over the course of a business cycle.

It  says inflation should remain about its present levels, if wage growth remains about “its current pace.”

The Bank says its “central scenario” continues to be one in which the European authorities do enough to avert a disaster, but are not able to avoid periodic bouts of considerable uncertainty and volatility.

“A worse outcome in Europe would adversely affect the Australian economy, and underlying inflation would be likely to decline,” the bank warns.

“The main upside risk to inflation comes from growth in unit costs turning out to be faster than is currently expected due to either a continuation of low productivity growth or a pick-up in wage growth,” it adds.

The bank admitted that it  has been concerned, for most of the past year, about the potential for inflation to be above the target band over the period ahead.

“Given these concerns, it has maintained a mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy, with most lending rates in the economy a little above their medium-term averages,” it admits.

“Broader financial conditions have also been tighter than normal, with credit growth subdued, the exchange rate at a high level and asset prices lower than earlier in the year,” it says.

These financial conditions have helped contain the inflationary pressures in the economy, with underlying inflation a little below the midpoint of the target band.

“At its meetings over recent months, the Board has reviewed the improving outlook for inflation and ongoing moderate growth in the overall economy,” the bank says.

“At its November meeting, the Board judged that a more neutral stance of monetary policy was now appropriate given that, over the period ahead, inflation was likely to be consistent with the medium-term target and that economic growth remained moderate.

“As a result, after holding the cash rate steady at 4.75 per cent since last November, the Board reduced the cash rate by 1?4 percentage point to 4.5 per cent.

“At its future meetings the Board will continue to set monetary policy so that it is consistent with achieving sustainable growth and 2–3 per cent inflation over time,” the bank concludes.

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