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Tuesday 19th July 2016 - 9:07 am
Comments Off on The news:Tuesday July 19

The news:Tuesday July 19

by Alan Thornhill

Malcolm Turnbull’s big new ministry and cabinet to be sworn in today

 

 

 

Pauline Hanson has made a controversial appearance on ABC’s Q&A as police clashed with a handful of protesters who demonstrated for and against her on the street outside, arresting up to six people theage

 

 

Donald Trump’s camp calls Republican’s staying away from their party’s convention in Cleveland “childish”  BBC

 

The black former Marine and Iraq war veteran who shot dead three police officers in the southern US city of Baton Rouge at the weekend planned his attack for days and then “assassinated” the men, officials say. ABC

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Thursday 14th July 2016 - 10:00 am
Comments Off on Inaction on coal “still polluting our skies”Climate Council

Inaction on coal “still polluting our skies”Climate Council

by Alan Thornhill

Australia is making too little progress in tackling climate change, according to the Climate Council.

 

The council’s CEO Amanda McKenzie said this is confirmed by new data.

 

She said a new survey, by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows coal’s market share has barely moved over the past three years., slipping only marginally from 65.3 per cent to 64.9 per cent

 

Yet burning coal to generate electricity is one one of the major drivers of climate change.

 

Ms McKenzie noted that renewable power generation has increased from 9.6 per cent to 12 per cent, according to the survey.

 

However,  shr said the true test of a climate change policy is how much emissions are reduced.

 

And  the US is doing much better than Australia in this regard.

 

“In the U.S, emissions from the electricity sector fell 18 per cent in 2014 and coal-fired power generation fell from 39 per cent in 2014 to 33 per cent in 2015,”   Ms McKenzie said.

 

She said  also that the fact that electricity generation from coal has barely moved in Australia, is a sign of two things.

 

One, the renewable energy industry is not growing at anywhere near the rate we need it to in order to tackle climate change.
“That’s because of the chopping and changing of policy.

 

“We’ve got enough renewable energy resources to power the country 500 times over – but we are not capitalising on it.

 

‘And two, it’s a sign that there is our climate policy is not robust enough to reduce emissions at the source.

 

“We must introduce climate policy which reduces our fossil fuel emissions if we are to effectively tackle climate change and protect the Great Barrier Reef,” Ms McKenzie said .

Tuesday 12th July 2016 - 1:42 pm
Comments Off on PM’s “get out of jail” card

PM’s “get out of jail” card

by Alan Thornhill

Analysis

 

What happens now that Malcolm Turnbull has at least the 76 lower house seats that he needs to form majority government?

 

We can expect to see tight government, as the Prime Minister takes up the reins, to start his fresh three year term.

 

Not quite as tight, though, as the independent Bob Katter has suggested.

 

 

Mr Katter warned, not altogether seriously, that a government with a majority of one, might lose a critical vote, if he left Parliament to attend his mother’s funeral, or to respond to a call of nature.

 

That’s not a worry

 

Australian parliaments, thankfully, have civilised arrangements called “pairing” to deal with exigencies like these.

 

The Opposition Leader, Bill Shorten, though, did raise as serious matter, when he warned of divisions in the Liberal party, particularly those involving the hard right, which supported Tony Abbott against Malcolm Turnbull, last September.

 

They have not forgotten or forgiven.

 

That became clear this week, when one member, Cory Bernardi, sent e-mails to supporters, urging them not to “… allow the political left to keep eroding our values, undermining our culture and diminishing our important institutions.”

 

The ratings agency, Standard and Poors, delivered the biggest challenge Mr Turnbull will face late last week, though, when it put Australia’s triple A credit rating on “negative watch.”

 

It cited both uncertainties which then existed about the July 2 election results and high levels of both domestic and international debt.

 

This means that the agency might well downgrade Australia’s presently excellent credit rating, if we don’t get those issues under control, over the next two years.

 

An astute Prime Minister might see it as more than that, too.

 

A “get out of jail free card” in fact.

 

Even governments which want to keep their pre-election promises often find it very difficult to do so.

 

So what could Mr Turnbull do, if he finds himself in that all-too-likely position?

Mr Shorten warned, during that eight week election campaign, that this is no time to be giving big companies $50 billion worth of tax cuts, over 5 years, even if they are to be phased in slowly.

 

And a report funded by Getup and published just days before the election said big miners and cigarette companies would be among the main winners, from that policy, which Mr Turnbull repeatedly said would create more “jobs and growth.

 

The miners, perhaps.

 

The cigarette companies.

 

Never.

 

So some adjustments can be expected there.

 

Nick Xenophon might also  be in for some disappointment when he comes to Canberra, seeking more money, to protect the jobs of steel workers, in his home State of South Australia.

 

Mr Turnbull might even be able to convince voters that some restraint in these areas is virtuous, as well as necessary, to avoid extra interest rate pain, for home buyers and others.

 

 

If he is astute enough.

 

 

Tuesday 5th July 2016 - 4:25 pm
Comments Off on Glenn Stevens drops a hint

Glenn Stevens drops a hint

by Alan Thornhill

The Reserve bank left interest rates on hold today, but hinted that there could be another rate cut soon.

 

After a meeting of the bank’s board today, its Governor Glenn Stevens noted that Australia’s inflation is low – at 1.3 per cent – and likely to remain so.

 

 

Then he added:  “Over the period ahead, further information should allow the Board to refine its assessment of the outlook for growth and inflation and to make any adjustment to the stance of policy that may be appropriate.”

 

Mr Stevens also said:  “Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year.”

 

However he added:  “but conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies.

 

He said:  “China’s growth rate has moderated further, though recent actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term outlook.”

 

 

The bank last cut its marker interest rate from 2 per cent, to a new record low of 1.75 per cent, in May.

 

Mr Stevens said:  “Commodity prices are above recent lows, but this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years.”

 

 

“Australia’s terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.”

 

He also noted the impact of Britain’s Brexit decision to leave the European Union but said nothing about Australia’s cliffhanger election, last Saturday.

 

Mr Stevens said global financial markets had been “volatile recently as investors have re-priced assets after the UK referendum.

 

 

“But most markets have continued to function effectively,” Mr Stevens added.

 

“Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.

 

“Any effects of the referendum outcome on global economic activity remain to be seen and, outside the effects on the UK economy itself, may be hard to discern,” he concluded.

Tuesday 5th July 2016 - 1:51 pm
Comments Off on Trade deficit blows out:ABS

Trade deficit blows out:ABS

by Alan Thornhill

Australia’s trade deficit rose $433 million in May to $2,218 million.

 

This is shown in figures published by the Bureau of Statistics today.

 

The bureau also reported that Australia’s retail sales rose by 0.2 per cent in that month.

 

The bureau said that, on seasonally adjusted figures, Australia’s exports had been worth $26,170  million in May.

 

But imports had been worth $28,387 million.

 

So our trade deficit that month was 24 per cent bigger than  that of the previous month.

 

Why did that happen?

 

Our exports rose by 1 per cent in May.

 

However our imports rose by 2 per cent in the month, on seasonally adjusted figures.

 

The Statistician also reports that we spent more in food stores and in Australia’s cafes and restaurants in May than we did in April.

 

But trade in Department stores was flat and we spent less on shoes and clothes in May than we had in April.

 

 

Monday 4th July 2016 - 8:46 am
Comments Off on Australia’s next PM? The one who is better on the blower

Australia’s next PM? The one who is better on the blower

by Alan Thornhill

Australia’s political leaders will be hitting their phones this week, trying to scrape together enough support to give the country stable government for the next three years.

 

The main rivals, Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, who heads a conservative coalition and Bill Shorten, who leads the Labor party both found themselves short of the 76 seats they would need, in the House of Representatives, to govern in their own right, at the end of the initial, but still incomplete, count.

 

Late yesterday, Labor had 67 seats, the Coalition 65, others 5 and 13 were still in doubt.

 

The Australian Electoral Commission had counted 78.2 per cent of the votes cast, at that point.

 

It will not resume the count until Tuesday, and the final result, for the House, will probably not be known until some time next week.

 

Mr Turnbull had made much of the need he saw for stability, during the late stages of the eight week election campaign, particularly after Britain’s vote to leave the EU.
However the swing to Labor, evident in Saturday’s election, showed that voters were more impressed with Mr Shorten’s warning that only Labor could be trusted to protect Australia’s health insurance system, Medicare.

 

Mr Turnbull had sought support for a plan centred on tax cuts for big companies and high income earners.

 

He had warned that a big spending Labor government could not be trusted to manage Australia’s economy responsibly.

 

And, at a news conference today, he welcomed a question from a reporter who asked him if the election result could threaten Australia’s TripleA credit rating.
He thanked the reporter and said: “This is why it is very important … for me to explain what is happening at the moment.”

 

“We are simply going through a process of completing a count,” Mr Turnbull said.

 

The Prime Minister also said that he could still form a new government, for the next three years.

 

However Bill Shorten greeted the initial count with a triumphal declaration.

 

He conceded that the public might not know the outcome of Saturday’s election : “…for some days to come.”

 

“But there is one thing for sure – the Labor Party is back.” he said.

 

But which of these two men is likely to be Australia’s Prime Minister over the next three years?

 

The answer to that question will depend, very much, on their relative telephone skills.

Sunday 3rd July 2016 - 8:09 am
Comments Off on “..Labor party is back” Shorten declares

“..Labor party is back” Shorten declares

by Alan Thornhill

“…The Labor party is back,” its leader, Bill  Shorten declared triumphantly, after the result of the first night’s count in yesterday’s Federal election was known.

 

However his conservative rival, the Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull was insisting that he could still form a government.

 

Independent observers, though, were saying that the results, so far, are so close that voters may still have to wait days to find out which of  these two men will be Australia’s Prime Minister for the next three years.

 

One thing is already certain, though.

 

Malcolm Turnbull has lost the gamble he took, when he called a double dissolution election, months early, in the hope of winning clear control of the Senate.

 

He did that in the hope of restoring peace in the building and construction industry, by reviving the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

 

The final outcome in the Senate will take even longer to decide than that in the House of  Representatives.

 

However one thing is already clear.

 

The new Senate will be peppered with independents and others who may well prove troublesome to the incoming  Prime Minister.

 

 

 

Thursday 30th June 2016 - 6:46 pm
Comments Off on Job vacancies:where to find them

Job vacancies:where to find them

by Alan Thornhill

 

The number of public sector job vacancies in Australia has been rising rapidly.

 

Trend figures that the Bureau of Statistics released today showed that there were 16,500 public sector job vacancies available in Australia in May.

 

This represented a 4.1 per cent rise from the February level and a 26.2 per cent rise over the year.

 

But most opportunities are still to be found in the private sector.

 

The Bureau also reported that there were 155,400 private sector vacancies in May this year.

 

This represented a 0.6 per cent rise from the February level sand a rise of 8.1 per cent over the year.

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