Kids staying at home longer?

House bursting at the seams?

Don’t worry.  You are not alone.

The Reserve Bank knows of your problems.

Indeed, it fears that these trends could push house prices – and rents – even higher

Its Assistant Governor, Philip Lowe, spoke at some length about these issues, at a seminar in Sydney today.

He noted that the number of houses being built in Australia over recent years had been below average, even though the nation’s population has been growing strongly.

That had meant house prices had been rising and rental vacancy rates had been very low.

Mr Lowe spoke of other, less obvious, trends, too.

He said that, on average,  more Australians are now living in each house and more money is being spent on renovations, rather than new buildings, now.

“Obviously examples of this are the trend towards young adults staying in the parental home longer and a rise in the number of people sharing accommodation,” Mr Lowe said.

“In a sense, as a society, there has been a trade off between quality and quantity.

“In particular, we have chosen to build bigger and better appointed dwellings, rather than more dwellings,” Mr Lowe said.

Mr Lowe said if strong population growth continues over an extended time, Australia might have to devote a bigger share of its gross domestic product to housing in future.

“If this does not happen further adjustment in housing prices and rents is likely to occur,” Mr Lowe warned.

We’ll all  be out shopping again soon – this time with our own money.

The economists at  Access Economics, who have just published new retail forecasts, are confident about that.

Naturally they admit that our spending has been boosted over the past year by stimulus measures, such as tax breaks,  subsidies and low interest rates, which left extra money in many budgets.

However they say those times are now rapidly  passing , to be replaced by new growth, based on a stronger job market.

“Ultimately,” they say,”spending growth is regulated by income growth.”

Th Access economists say, too, that job growth is the “bedrock” of consumer spending.

Access noted that almost 200,000 jobs had been created in the five months to January.

It said, too, that about half of those new jobs had been full time.

“A greater sense of security makes for a more confident consumer,” Access said.

Its work is backed by other economic research.

The National Australia Bank, for example, is reporting that business confidence has returned to the surprisingly strong levels of last November.

That means business confidence is now back at levels not previously seen since May 2002.

And the ANZ bank said the number of job ads, appearing in Australia, had leapt by 19.2 per cent in February.

The ANZ said the nation is now “enjoying solid employment growth and reduced unemployment.”

However it warned that “a record 30.2 per cent” of all Australian jobs are now part time or casual.

The bank’s chief economist, Warren Hogan, said this represents “a significant degree of spare capacity or underemployment.”

Access has reservations, too.

It says, for example, that there are still “plenty of factors which will stop retail sales from being spectacular.”

These would include further interest rate rises, which would slow growth in house prices and ultimately affect consumer confidence.

These rate rises would eat directly into shoppers’ incomes, Access said.

The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, says his government will not increase tax, as proportion of national income.

Mr Rudd renewed this pledge – first made before the 2007 election – in the wake of speculation that the government will have to increase taxes, to meet rising health costs.

However the Prime Minister’s promise may not provide all that much comfort to taxpayers.

Mr Rudd said the costs of his planned hospital funding reforms would be met from the Federal budget.

He added, though, that, any politician who would not acknowledge that Australia’s health costs would increase, over the long term, “is not worth a pinch of salt.”

Despite that tax, measured as a proportion of the overall economy, would not rise.

“That’s what we said before the election.

“That’s what we’ve stuck to since the election.

“That’s what we’ll adhere to in the future,” Mr Rudd said.

He was speaking in a Sydney radio interview.

“We have said consistently that we will not increase tax as a proportion of Gross National Product,” Mr Rudd added.

Consumer confidence is up, despite this week’s widely predicted rise in interest rates.

And the good economic news keeps rolling.

The Roy Morgan organisation reports that consumer confidence rose strongly in the final week of February.

It is now 34 points higher than it was in March last year, when Australians were very worried about the global economic crisis.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is also reporting a sharp improvement in Australia’s trade.

Australia’s exports rose by 1 per cent in January, while imports for the month fell by 3 per cent.

That meant Australia’s trade deficit fell by almost $1 billion during the month.

Low export prices and strong imports slashed 1.2 per cent from Australia’s economic growth, in the final three months of last year.

However the nation still managed to chalk up 0.9 per cent growth in that time.

And, if sustained, January’s improvement should contribute to further economic growth in the early months of this year.

The Roy Morgan survey showed that 48 per cent of Australians now expect their families to be better off at this time next year.

That was the highest level, seen on this indicator, since October last year.

Only 14 per cent expected their families to be worse off.

The organisation’s chief, Gary Morgan, saw this week’s rate rise, too, as a positive sign.

He described it as :”…a firm sign that the RBA (Reserve Bank) believes the Australian economy is on a sustainable growth path…”

There may be better times ahead.

There are, certainly, signs of that in the latest national accounts.

Private investment, for example, rose by 3.5 per cent in the final three months of last year.

And Australia’s household spending rose by 0.7 per cent, in the same time.

But much of the force, that produced the nation’s 0.9 per cent economic growth in the quarter still came from the Federal government’s stimulus package.

That is reflected in the 10.2 per cent rise government investment, that appeared in the Statistician’s national accounts for the December quarter.

However, a sudden jump in the nation’s terms of trade, during the final three months of last year, must not be overlooked. either.

Australia suffered an 11.2 per cent fall in its terms of trade last year, in the wake of the global economic crisis.

However, that indicator showed a 2.9 per cent improvement in the December quarter.

China’s still strong demand for Australia’s iron ore and coal helped there.

So did growing demand from India.

The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, was also upbeat in his assessment of the bureau’s figures, noting that company profits, too, rose in the final three months of last year.

“After falling for four consecutive quarters, the gross operating surplus of private, non financial corporations rose by 4.8 per cent in the December quarter,” Mr Swan said.

“The private sector is looking increasingly well placed  to pick up the slack as the Government’s fiscal stimulus is progressively withdrawn over coming quarters,” the Treasurer added.

So – barring unforeseen events – the future is now starting to look at least a little brighter.

That, however, is a very substantial qualification.

The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, says his country’s situation with debt is now so bad, that it is like being in a war.

That declaration, of course, is aimed primarily at his country’s own population.

Greeks have not been at all eager to embrace the restraints that are necessary, to put their country onto  a more sustainable path.

Global markets, though, are still very nervous – and the results of a major default are unpredictable.

And such events could well have major repercussions for Australia.

The Australian economy grew by 0.9 per cent in the December quarter and 2.7 per cent in 2009.

This followed a rise of 0.3 per cent in the previous quarter.

But growth of some 4 per cent is needed to absorb each year’s school leavers into the nation’s workforce,

Figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today show that the Federal government’s stimulus package – reflected in a 10.2 per cent surge in government investment – was the main reason for the quarter’s relatively strong rise.

However private investment also rose by 3.5 per cent in the final three months of last year.

Household spending rose by 0.7 per cent.

A fall in Australia’s net exports, though, restricted growth in December quarter.

Import growth, of 7.7 per cent in that time, was far greater than the nation’s export growth of just 1.7 per cent.

Manufacturing surged by 5.1 per cent in the final three months of last year in seasonally adjusted volume terms,  while wholesale trade rose 3.6 per cent .

Final consumption spending rose by 0.9 per cent in the quarter and 3.2 per cent over the year.

Australia’s terms of trade rose by 2.9 per cent in the final three months of last year.

But they were still down 11.2 per cent over the year.

The Bureau also reported that real net disposable income rose by 1.2 per cent in the December quarter.

However it was still 1.2 per cent over over the year.

New South Wales was the nation’s powerhouse last year, chalking up 5.2 per cent growth in State final demand.

That was exceeded only by the ACT, which saw 7.6 per cent growth on the same indicator.

Victoria saw 4 per cent growth, Queensland recorded a contraction of 1.1 per cent, South Australia chalked up 5 per cent growth, Western Australia 3.3 per cent, Tasmania contracted by 0.3 per cent and the Northern Territory experienced a 6.3 per cent contraction.

Prepare for further rate rises.

That’s the message the Reserve Bank wants home buyers to take from its announcement of yesterday’s 25 basis point rise.

In that  announcement, the bank’s Governor, Glenn Stevens, said it is now appropriate for Australia’s interest rates to be closer to their historical averages.

“Today’s decision is a step in that process,” Mr Stevens added.

He said  Australia’s interest rates are still “lower than average.”

The latest rise, though, is the fourth in five months.

The Housing Industry Association said these rises, together, mean that first home buyers now have to find an extra $216 a month, on average, to get into their homes.

The latest rise took the Reserve Bank’s target rate to 4 per cent.

Australia’s banks and other lenders are expected to pass it on in full.

However the Treasurer, Wayne Swan said Australia’s banks would have “absolutely no justification” for any bigger rises.

He said bank margins had already returned to pre-crisis levels.

Mr Swan said families with a typical $300,000 home loan would have to “stump up” another $50 a month, as a result of yesterday’s rate rise.

Most analysts expect two more increases, of a similar size, in the not too distant future.

That would mean many home buyers would have to find another $100 a month.

Thousands of Australian families will be placed under severe financial pressure, as that happens.

Those whose main  breadwinners are still working part time, will be particularly vulnerable.

Thousands of Australians were shifted from full to part time work, when the global economic crisis struck.

However thousands of Australians, who would like to move back to full time jobs, are still working part time.

Mr Stevens said Australia’s underlying inflation rate had eased, as expected, from its peak in 2008.

But he said now that the risk of a serious economic contraction in Australia has  passed, less monetary stimulus is needed.

The Reserve Bank raised its target interest rate by 25 basis points to 4 per cent today, even though building approvals, throughout Australia, plunged by 7 per cent in January.

This followed three consecutive interest rate rises late last year.

The building industry had warned that approvals for unit and semi-detached housing in Victoria plunged by 29.1 per cent in January.

However the Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens, insisted that the latest rise is necessary.

“The global economy is growing,” Mr Stevens said.

“And world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011.”

He admitted though that the expansion “is still hesitant in the major countries,”

Mr Stevens said that was  due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, which is producing “ongoing excess capacity.”

” In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, growth has continued to be quite strong,” Mr Stevens said.

“The authorities in some countries are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economies,” he added.

But Mr Stevens also said:”Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago.

“And the extraordinary support from governments and central banks is gradually being wound back.

“Credit conditions remain difficult in some major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness.

“Concerns regarding some sovereigns remain elevated.

Mr Stevens said Australia’s domestic economic conditions had been  stronger than expected, last year,  after a mild downturn a year ago.

“Inflation has, as expected, declined in underlying terms from its peak in 2008,” he added.

This had been  helped by the fall in commodity prices at the end of 2008, a noticeable slowing in private-sector labour costs during 2009, the rise in the exchange rate and the earlier period of slower growth in demand.

“CPI inflation has risen somewhat recently as temporary factors that had been holding it to unusually low rates are now abating,” he said.

“Inflation is expected to be consistent with the target in 2010,” he added.

The Reserve Bank aims to keep Australia’s annual underlying inflation rate in a 2-3 per cent, over the course of a business cycle.

The lure of the January sales proved as strong as ever last month, with retail sales throughout Australia rising 1.2 per cent during the month,

This followed disappointing pre Christmas trade, with sales falling by 0.9 per cent in December.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics  reported that Australia’s department stores, clothing and shoe shops and grocery chains all increased their sales in January.

However the nation’s cafes, restaurants and take-away food stores saw their trade fall, during the holiday period.

The bureau also reported today that home building approvals fell by 7 per cent during January.

This followed removal of the Federal government’s stimulus subsidy, for first home buyers.

However the Housing Industry Association reported, earlier this week, that home sales, by Australia’s volume builders, rebounded by 9.5 per cent in January.

The association took this as a sign that upgraders and investors are re-entering the nation’s housing market.

The Reserve Bank board, which is meeting today to review Australia’s interest rates, will take all of  these figures into account.

It’s decision is to be announced at 2.30 this afternoon.

Although car and house sales have been strong, easing price pressures might save Australia from another interest rate rise today.

At this stage, though, that is still far from certain and we will all have to wait until 2.30 this afternoon before we will know for sure.

That’s when the Reserve Bank plans to release the results of a review of Australia’s interest rates, that its board will conduct early today.

Either way, figures that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has just published are sure to weigh heavily on the board’s deliberations.

These include the bureau’s balance of payments figures and business indicators for the December quarter.

Other figures, published by the Housing Industry Association, are also likely to be influential.

They showed a 9.5 per cent rebound in the sales of Australia’s large volume residential builders in January.

The association’s chief economist, Harley Dale, said a sustained improvement, of this kind, would suggest that a recovery, driven both  by people upgrading  – and investors – would be “achievable.’

The Federal government’s now discontinued subsidy for first home buyers has been driving the market for some time now.

The bureau’s balance of payments figures showed some mixed results.

They revealed, for example, that Australia’s current account deficit rose by $2.7 billion, or 19 per cent, in the quarter to almost $17.5 billion.

That is expected to detract 1.3 percentage points from Australia’s economic growth in the December quarter, on a  volume measure.

The bureau’s figures also showed that Australia’s net foreign was almost $648 billion at the end of December.

That represented a rise of 2 per cent over 2009.

Detailed figures, in the Statistician’s bulletin, also suggested that new vehicle imports had  been particularly strong during the quarter.

But one figure, in the Statistician’s bulletin, stood out.

A technical indicator, called the implicit price deflator, fell by 2.1 per cent in the December quarter.

This suggests that Australia’s imports, in the December quarter, will have a significant impact on other price pressures in the economy.

The strength of the $A, over most of the December quarter, helped there.

The Reserve Bank aims to keep Australia’s inflation in a 2-3 per cent range, over the course of the business cycle.

It looks at pressures, like these, very closely, when it reviews Australia’s interest rates, as it will do today.

Australia’s economic recovery is deepening.

And the Federal government’s economic stimulus is playing its part.

Fresh evidence, on both fronts, showed up in  new capital spending figures, that the Bureau of Statistics has just released.

These showed that spending on industrial equipment, plant and machinery leapt by 12.4 per cent in the December quarter to $15.1 billion, on seasonally adjusted figures.

That was  7.2 per cent higher than the amount spent in the December quarter of 2008.

The bureau took the rare step of noting that
a large number of companies, which responded to its survey, said they had taken advantage of a tax break, that the government offered, to purchase new cars.

That break was part of the Federal government’s stimulus package.

The bureau’s figures strongly suggest that Australian car makers increased investment in their plants, to cope with this extra demand.

The bureau also reported that full time average weekly earnings, in the private sector, rose by 1.5 per cent in November and by 5.4 per cent over the year.

The comparable figures, for the public sector, were 1.3 per cent growth for the month and a 5.7 per cent rise over the year.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, told parliament that investment in private sector housing had fallen by more than 20 per cent last year, in the wake of the global economic crisis.

“But that has been offset by an increase of 42 per cent in public construction activity,” he added.

More than 800,000 Australians have found themselves underemployed as the nation’s economic recovery gathers strength.

The Bureau of Statistics almost 900,000 Australians who want more work were not fully employed in September last year.

That included 811,600 people who were officially classed as underemployed.

The bureau’s study showed that both younger and older Australians have been hit hard by underemployment.

It said that while underemployment is more common among younger workers, older workers generally suffered longer bouts of underemployment.

The Bureau said part time workers, aged between 20 and 34, had the highest incidence of underemployment, with 29 per cent of those in this age group classed as underemployed.

The main reasons given, for this problem, were “no vacancies” in my line of work or “no vacancies at all.”

However older workers were suffering longer periods without enough work.

At the time of the survey, almost half of those aged 45-54, who wanted more work, had been underemployed for more than a year.

So had 45 per cent of those who were 55 or over.

The bureau said there were 452,100 female part time workers, among the underemployed, last September and 283,800 men.

However the incidence of underemployment among men in this group, at 30 per cent, was higher than that for women, at 20 per cent.

The Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens says the bank expects Australia’s underlying inflation rate to be about 2.5 per cent over 2010.

That’s important because the bank looks primarily at that rate when it sets official interest rates.

The bank aims to keep Australia’s underlying inflation within a 2-3 per cent range over the course of the business cycle.

Mr Stevens made the prediction in his opening address to the House of Representatives Economic Committee in Canberra.

However, he also suggested that further interest rate rises are still likely this year.

“If economic conditions evolve roughly as we expect, further adjustments to monetary policy will probably be needed over time,” Mr Stevens said.

He said the bank would again seek to ensure that inflation remains consistent with its target over the medium term.

“This is a normal experience in an economic expansion,” he added.

Mr Stevens also said that Australia had chalked up 2 per cent economic growth last year, despite the global economic crisis.

“We expect that it will grow by a bit over 3 per cent for 2010 and about 3.5 per cent in 2011 and 2012,” he added.

Economists estimate that Australia needs about 4 per cent economic growth to absorb each year’s school-leavers into the nation’s workforce.

Mr Stevens said government spending, from the Prime Minister’s stimulus package, is still “having an impact on demand.”

However he added:”This effect will gradually diminish over the coming year.”

“At the same time, a large build up in energy and resource sector investment is under way,” Mr Stevens added.

Australians are rapidly moving past  full reliance on the Age pension in retirement.

The compulsory superannuation regime, introduced by Paul Keating, is providing better results, on several fronts.

A senior Federal Minister, Chris Bowen, spelt that out in a speech he delivered in Melbourne.

He said the introduction of compulsory superannuation “…has meant we are all, collectively, saving more.

“The resultant national pool of wealth – which is available for investment in Australian companies, property and infrastructure – has been a crucial source of funds for our economy,” he added.

That had helped Australian industry, in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Mr Bowen, who is minister for Financial Services, Superannuation and Corporate Law, also said “The Age pension will inevitably continue to supplement retirement incomes in future.

“But a far lower proportion of retired Australians will be full pensioners,” he said .

“And a far higher proportion will be part pensioners,” Mr Bowen added.

He also quoted lines from Tony Abbott’s book, Battlelines, which Mr Bowen said  suggest that a Coalition government might slash the present tax concessions on superannuation, to fund abolition of the means test on Age pensions.

“That “would be a very retrograde step.”

“We rule it out,” Mr Bowen said.

“Mr Abbott should  as well,” he added.

So far there has been no response from the Opposition Leader.

Watch the North Atlantic.

According to one expert, that’s where the lingering risks from the global economic crisis are likely to appear.

Guy Debelle, an Assistant Governor of the Reserve Bank, who specialises in financial markets, delivered this warning in a speech he gave in Sydney.

Addressing a Women in Finance lunch, Mr Debelle said:”We are now into the phase where weakness in the global macroeconomy is feeding back into the financial sector.

“In that regard, a significant risk, in my assessment, is that we are still to see the full impact of the weakness in the North Atlantic economies on the loans on the books of financial institutions.”

“…this was a big recession which, combined with large falls in both commercial and housing property prices, should result in large loan losses,” Mr Debelle said.

(A copy of his speech can be found on the Reserve Bank’s website, at www.rba.gov.au).

Mr Debelle stressed, though, that this warning should not be taken as his central message .

“The central case is that financial markets have improved considerably over the past year,” Mr Debelle said.

In a separate development, the Reserve Bank warned that more interest rate rises can be expected this year, but that they will probably not be on a monthly basis in future, as they were late last year.

This message was contained in the minutes of the Reserve Bank board meeting, held earlier this month.

The board, then, surprised many economists, by keeping interest rates on hold.

The minutes have just been released.

They noted that board members had been briefed on Australia’s economic prospects.

Then the printed  minutes  then offered a ray of hope to struggling home buyers.

They said board members:”…did not regard that outlook as requiring an increase at every meeting.”

The board, generally, meets on the first Tuesday of each month, except January, to review rates.

It’s main aim, at those meetings, is to keep Australia’s underlying inflation rate within a 2 to 3 per cent range, over the course of a business cycle.

The minutes described the case for keeping rates on hold earlier this month as “stronger” than that for another rise.

The minutes also said that  although Australia’s underlying inflation rate is still  3.25 per cent, it is expected fall to around 2.5 per cent this year.