Credit ratings to be overhauled
by Alan Thornhill
Have you been refused a car or home loan, because there is a blot on your credit rating?
But would you know about it?
And could you correct it, if it was put there by mistake?
Many people have complained that their credit ratings are now so complicated that they simply can’t understand them.
The Attorney General, Nicola Roxon, says the Federal government is tackling all that – and more – with proposed changes to the Privacy Act, that she has just introduced into Federal parliament.
She said: ‘“There have been big changes to the way we access finance since 1990 when the existing credit reporting provisions came into effect.
“Many consumers have expressed their frustration at not being able to understand their credit rating.
“These changes will provide much more power to consumers
Ms Roxon said the proposed changes would also provide better protection for personal information, simplify credit reporting arrangements and give new enforcement powers to the Privacy Commissioner
“In an online world, we are sharing our personal information more than ever before—whether that be by paying our bills online, buying some footy tickets for the weekend, or connecting with friends and family through social media,” Ms Roxon said.
“Both consumers and governments have a role to play to protect privacy. “In introducing these changes, the Gillard Government is doing its bit to protect the privacy of Australian families.
“These new privacy laws focus on giving power back to consumers over how organisations use their personal information,” she added.
Lenders welcomed the bill.
Damian Paull, of the Australian Retail Credit Association, said: “Comprehensive credit reporting will deliver both certainty for industry and security for consumers.”
He said this would be achieved through the introduction of mandatory standards on the completeness and integrity of credit file information.
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Confidence still “weak” despite good figures
by Alan Thornhill
Consumer confidence in Australia is still weak despite a big rate cut, higher family payments lower unemployment, moderate inflation and higher wages.
Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans, described a bare 0.8 per cent rise in the Westpac Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence as “a disappointing result” in these circumstances.
“It follows a surprise 0.5 per cent cut in the official cash rate by the Reserve Bank and extensive media coverage that the unemployment rate had fallen from 5.2 to 4.9 per cent, Mr Evans said.
However he admitted that “other factors appear to have offset these positives.”
But another survey, published by the Roy Morgan produced a more positive result.
It showed Consumer Confidence had jumped 5.4 points to its highest level for three months
The organisation said the biggest boost to confidence, reflected in its survey, had come from more people who now expect better times ahead.
Mr Evans noted that home loan rates had fallen by an average of just 0.37 per cent and there had been “increasingly disturbing” news from Europe.
The Bureau of Statistics reported that home lending dropped by 0.3 per cent in March from the February level.
It also reported that hourly wage rates, measured on the Bureau’s wage price index, rose 0.9 per cent in the March quarter and 3.6 per cent in the 12 months to the end of March.
Prices, measured on the Consumer Price Index, rose by just 0.1 per cent in the same quarter and 1.6 per cent over the year.
The Bureau also reported today that, on original figures, the value of Australia’s imports fell to $18.8 billion in April from $20.8 billion in March.
However, worries over Europe increased overnight, Australian time, when Greek political leaders again failed to reach agreement on a new government for the country.
Fresh elections are now likely in Greece, probably next month.
And Greece might well be forced off the Euro.
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Job security worries curb spending
by Alan Thornhill
Australians, worried about job security, have curbed their spending.
They have also become particularly apprehensive about signing up to buy a new home.
The Reserve Bank noted both trends, in the minutes of its Board meeting, held earlier this month.
Accompanying comments, that the bank made, strongly suggest that the 50 basis point rate cut it announced then might not be the last, even though Australia’s unemployment has now dropped to 4.9 per cent.
In the minutes, which have just been published the bank said consumer spending had eased in the final three months of last year.
“…and recent indicators suggested that consumption growth was a little below trend in early 2012, with consumers evidently concerned about their personal finances and job security,” it added.
It noted, too, that home prices had fallen, relative to incomes.
However, the bank warned that that there is still little prospect of a recovery in the nation’s housing construction industry.
“Information from liaison suggested that households were unwilling to commit to contracts for new dwellings because of concerns about job security and declining dwelling prices,” it said.
“Information from liaison suggested that households were unwilling to commit to contracts for new dwellings because of concerns about job security and declining dwelling prices,” the bank added.
It said Australia’s domestic economy had been growing modestly in early 2012.
However “…the pace of activity had continued to vary significantly across industries.
“ The mining sector remained exceptionally strong, with work progressing on the very large pipeline of committed projects and capital imports rising strongly.
“Mining production had, nevertheless, been disrupted by adverse weather, industrial action and a shortage of explosives.
“Conditions faced by many firms not exposed to the mining sector remained weak, with the high level of the exchange rate continuing to weigh on import-competing and exporting firms.
“Conditions remained particularly difficult in parts of the building, construction and manufacturing industries, as well as for many retailers. Survey measures also pointed to a softening in conditions in the business services sector, consistent with weakness in property markets and the non-mining sectors more generally,” the bank said.
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Are we worrying too much?
by Alan Thornhill
Confidence is scarce right now.
That’s due, mainly, to fresh uncertainties in Europe, particularly France and Greece.
And some slowing in the US economic recovery.
The doubts are not confined to share markets, which have fallen sharply over the past few days.
Consumer confidence, too, has fallen again, on the latest measure.
And if a 0.5 per cent rate cut won’t fix that, what will?
Is there a bright side, somewhere?
That question is worth asking, even if you aren’t exactly into counter-investing.
The French and Greek election results are, at least, a challenge to the austere policies of the Merkel-Sarkozy era.
Although that certainly raises fresh worries, it might well, eventually, turn out to be a good thing.
Austere policies, harshly applied, can lead to a downward spiral, rather than the confidence they are said to inspire.
The Nobel Prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, has been warning of that, for some time now.
The “confidence fairy,” he declares, is a myth.
Will this week’s Federal budget help?
The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, believes that its $1.5 billion surplus is a real confidence booster.
And the large cash transfers, to the poor and middle class mums and dads, that it contains, should help, too.
Australia’s shopkeepers, after all, have been complaining of weak sales, for more than a year now.
Perhaps they ought to stock up now, on school clothes and shoes, before school-kids’ bonus cheques start hitting family mail boxes, throughout Australia.
Independent economists, who have studied the budget forecasts, that point to a gradual strengthening in Australian economy, over the years ahead, believe they are broadly correct.
So perhaps present fears may be overstated.
The budget’s hidden strategy
by Alan Thornhill
The key point in assessing last night’s Federal budget is to remember that it has dual aims.
The first is to lure traditional Labor voters back into the fold, before the next election.
The second is to gently push a flagging domestic economy towards recovery.
Wayne Swan has approached both of his targets quite cleverly.
The Treasurer talks of spreading the benefits of the mining boom to low and middle income earners, in what he calls his “battlers’ budget.”
The government is planning to do this, primarily, by shifting $5 billion into new family payments, higher pensions new disability and dental schemes, and a variety of other measures.
Attempting this, while producing a $1.5 billion surplus, is a bold ambition.
There are costs, of course.
Deferrals on big ticket defence purchases.
Heavy cuts in Public Service employment and
Cancellation of a promised 1 per cent cut, in the company tax rate.
The electoral appeal of increased pensions and new payments for parents with school aged children, among other goodies, is obvious.
Labor, of course, has a great deal of ground to make up in the polls, if it is to have any chance, at all, of winning the next elections, due in 2013.
The economic impact of a $5 billion transfer to people on low incomes, though, might be less obvious.
That’s all about what economists call the propensity to spend.
The poor, naturally, tend to spend more freely than the rich, when a little extra money comes along.
Australia’s shopkeepers will be delighted with that.
Yet – as independent economists admit – this surplus budget –overall – carries little risk of inflation.
Some stimulus, then, to a sagging domestic economy, without much damage.
A clever strategy, which might well work.
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The budget: What he said
by Alan Thornhill
This Budget deals with today’s challenges and builds the foundations for the future.
Australia’s economy is the standout performer in the developed world. We have avoided recession, kept Australians in jobs and are now bringing the budget back to surplus, ahead of every single major advanced economy.
Returning the budget to surplus is central to our plan to build an even stronger economy. It sends a very clear signal to the world about our strong economic fundamentals, and gives the Reserve Bank flexibility to cut interest rates further if it thinks that is needed.
While uncertainties remain in the global economy, Australia is also in the right place at the right time, as the weight of global economic activity shifts towards our region.
This is creating vast opportunities for Australian businesses, and driving a huge pipeline of investment that will support economic growth into the future, however it is also creating challenging conditions for parts of our patchwork economy.
But our success in supporting the economy and jobs during the global financial crisis means the economy faces the future from a position of strength.
This Budget builds on this success by making the critical investments that Australia needs today, to increase productivity, boost workforce participation and encourage businesses to invest and grow.
It helps businesses facing pressures in our patchwork economy with an innovative loss carry back initiative to help them through hard times and encourage them to invest in order to prepare for the future.
Importantly, the Budget delivers much-needed cost of living relief for Australian families – particularly on low and middle incomes.
It also takes the first steps towards important social reforms – in particular, a National Disability Insurance Scheme – as well as Aged Care reform and a blitz on dental waiting lists
This Budget gets the long term settings right so that we can convert the significant opportunities of the Asian Century into lasting prosperity over the medium and long term.
Return to surplus and fiscal update
Returning the budget to surplus in 2012-13 is appropriate given the strong fundamentals in our domestic economy and the challenges in the global economy.
Australia’s economy is over 7 per cent larger than it was before the GFC, while many other countries are still making up lost ground, with some now re-entering recession.
The Australian economy is expected to grow around trend over the next two years, outperforming every major advanced economy over the next two years. Real GDP growth is forecast to be 3¼ per cent in 2012-13 and 3 per cent in 2013-14.
We have an unemployment rate below every major advanced economy in the world bar one, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain low with a ’5′ in front of it.
Since Labor took office, more than 750,000 jobs have been created, in contrast to the 27 million jobs that have been lost across the world over the same period.
We have an economy with solid growth, low unemployment, and a record pipeline of investment in resources of around $455 billion, while at the same time achieving contained inflation.
The value of our economy is now more than $1.4 trillion, up from just $1.1 trillion when Labor came to office. This is an extraordinary achievement given it has come during the most destructive period in the global economy since the Great Depression.
Just as the Government stepped in to support the economy and protect jobs during the GFC, the Government is stepping back, ensuring that we don’t generate price pressures in the economy.
This continues to give the RBA flexibility to reduce interest rates if it thinks that is needed, which is important for workers and businesses under financial pressure.
Returning to surplus also locks in confidence, and is Australia’s best defence at a time when the global economy is changing dramatically. It creates a buffer in uncertain times and is a very clear sign of our strong economy.
The Government’s consistent and credible budget strategy has seen Australia achieve the gold-plated AAA credit rating from all three major global ratings agencies for the first time in our history.
However structural changes in our economy have reduced the Government’s revenue base over the short and medium term, with heightened global turmoil towards the end of last year contributing to weaker revenues than expected at the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook in November last year.
Downward revisions to revenue collections have hit the budget balance by a further $12 billion across both 2011-12 and 2012-13 compared to the last forecasts in the mid-year budget update in November. This obviously makes the task of returning to surplus that much harder and takes the total write-down in tax collections since the 2008-09 Budget to around $150 billion over five years. This means that tax as a proportion of GDP in 2011-12 and the previous two years is the lowest it has been since 1993-94.
Taxes as a proportion of the economy remain below 23 per cent of GDP across the forward estimates. This is well within the Government’s commitment to keep taxes below 23.7 per cent of GDP.
The Government has made responsible and targeted savings to ensure Australia’s public finances and economy remain strong.
These responsible decisions improve the sustainability of government finances over the forward estimates, while protecting low and middle income earners and the frontline services Australian families rely on in health and education.
Our strict fiscal discipline means that payments as a proportion of the economy are expected to remain below 24 per cent from 2012-13 to the end of the forward estimates. The last time there were four successive years with the payments to GDP ratio below 24 per cent was more than 30 years ago.
As a result, the budget is on track for a surplus of $1.5 billion in 2012-13, growing over the forward estimates.
Cost of living relief and Benefits of the Boom Package
The Government will deliver a new Benefits of the Boom package – including major tax reforms, increases in the pension and family payments – to help families with the cost pressures they face every day.
This package includes $1.8 billion in extra support for families through more generous family payments, with more than 1.5 million families receiving a boost to their Family Tax Benefit (FTB) Part A from 1 July next year.
More than a million families will receive an increase of at least $300.
This assistance builds on the tripling of the tax free threshold from 1 July this year, delivering tax cuts to all taxpayers earning up to $80,000.
This is the largest increase in the history of the tax free threshold which will see up to an extra one million people not having to lodge a return.
Around 1.4 million Australians will benefit from the introduction of a new lump sum Supplementary Allowance to help recipients of Parenting Payment and allowances manage unexpected living expenses.
The payments of a total of $210 a year for singles or $350 a year for couples ($175 each; $87.50 per instalment) will indexed by the Consumer Price Index to keep pace with inflation, will not be means tested and is tax-free.
The lump sum payments will be paid twice yearly – $105 per instalment for singles and $87.50 per instalment for each person who is a member of a couple.
The Benefits of the Boom package is funded by revenue from the Minerals Resource Rent Tax arising from the rejection by the Opposition and the Greens of the planned company tax cut.
The Government is also providing 1.3 million Australian families with children at school with a new cash payment to help make ends meet.
Each year, families will receive a new Schoolkids Bonus worth:
- $410 for each child in primary school
- $820 for each child in high school.
This new guaranteed payment will help the families of 2.2 million school kids pay for uniforms, books, school excursions, stationery, and other costs like music lessons and sports registration fees.
The Government’s fiscal strategy of returning the budget to surplus ensures the Reserve Bank continues to have the flexibility for further interest rate cuts if it thinks that’s necessary.
Lower interest rates provide relief for workers and businesses right across Australia.
The Reserve Bank’s official interest rate is now 300 basis points lower than when the Government came to office.
Its current rate of 3.75 per cent is lower than at any time under the previous government.
A family with a mortgage of $300,000 is now paying around $3,500 a year less in repayments now than when the previous government left office.
Supporting those most in need: the first stage of a National Disability Insurance Scheme
The Gillard Government will kick start the most fundamental social policy reform since Medicare in this Budget, with a $1 billion investment to launch the first stage of Australia’s first ever National Disability Insurance Scheme.
A full NDIS will give Australians with a significant and permanent disability the peace of mind to know their needs will be addressed with dignity, no matter where they live, what their circumstances or how they acquired their disability.
The Government has committed $1 billion in this Budget to fund launch locations of the NDIS, delivering care and support over a person’s lifetime, as recommended in the Productivity Commission’s landmark report.
From July 2013, launch locations around the country will start to lift the standard of help for around 10,000 people with a significant and permanent disability – growing to 20,000 people from mid-2014.
People with significant and permanent disability will have their needs assessed, and start to receive personalised care and support.
The Government will negotiate locations with States and Territories who are willing to play their part, and will continue to work with all states and territories on the design, governance and funding arrangements for the full scheme.
The lessons we learn from the first stage will inform our conversations with the states and territories on the national roll-out of a National Disability Insurance Scheme.
National Dental Scheme
There is a direct correlation between those on lower incomes and below average standards of dental health. To address this issue Government is delivering $346 million to help reduce waiting lists for those on low incomes trying to access dental services in public clinics. This will deliver dental services to the estimated 400,000 people on public waiting lists.
In addition, the Government will provide funding for health workforce initiatives to support the relocation of dentists to work in rural and regional areas where there is a shortage of dentists. The Government will also provide infrastructure funding for dental clinics to expand capacity to deliver these services.
Continuing our Strong Investment in Infrastructure
This Government will continue its strong record of investing in infrastructure to expand our productive capacity, relieve congestion and improve road safety.
As a result of this Budget, all of the projects assessed as ‘Ready to Proceed’ on Infrastructure Australia’s 2009 priority list have now been funded. Under the Nation Building programs, the Government is investing $36 billion in land transport infrastructure over six years through to 2013-14.
The Government will fund a range of additional measures in the 2012-13 Budget.
In this Budget, the Gillard Government will provide an extra $3.6 billion for the full duplication of the Pacific Highway by the end of 2016, provided it is matched by the NSW Government.
The Government will also continue funding for critical road safety programs, including $350 million per year for the Roads to Recovery program and $60 million per year for the Black Spots program.
The Government will support the development of the Moorebank Intermodal Terminal, which will help to reduce business costs and relieve bottlenecks and urban congestion in the Port Botany precinct.
The Government will provide $232 million toward the Torrens and Goodwood rail project to help ease congestion on Adelaide’s suburban and freight rail networks.
The Government is continuing the roll-out of the National Broadband Network. Over the next three years, NBN Co will commence work in over 1,500 communities covering 3.5 million premises throughout Australia.
Living Longer. Living Better: delivering overdue reform of the aged care system
The Gillard Government will deliver landmark changes to the aged care system, to ensure older Australians have more choice and higher quality care.
People have overwhelmingly said they want to age well in their own homes, so under the $3.7 billion Living Longer. Living Better package more people will get to stay in their home for longer. The package includes around $577 million in new investment.
The Government is increasing the number of Home Care Packages by two thirds – from around 59,900 to almost 100,000. Contributions for Home Care will also be reformed to make them more equitable from 1 July 2014. Nobody in the system prior to that time will pay more, and full pensioners will continue to pay no more than the basic fee.
For those that do need to move into residential aged care, they will have more choice about how they pay for the residential aged care place. Contributions for residential care will be made more equitable and sustainable, with reforms to commence on 1 July 2014 and only applying to new or significantly refurbished facilities. People will be protected by a $25,000 annual cap on care fees in residential care and a $60,000 lifetime cap on care fees across both residential and home care.
The Government will also redirect $1.2 billion to improve the aged care workforce, a critical element of ensuring a sustainable, high quality aged care system.
Helping businesses with an economy in transition
The 2012-13 Budget delivers major new benefits for Australian businesses, many of which are facing serious pressures in our patchwork economy.
Australia’s 2.7 million small businesses are the engine room of our economy, employing almost 5 million Australian workers, or nearly half of the private sector workforce across the country.
The Gillard Government is committed to helping Australian small businesses grow, prosper and create jobs. In the depths of the worst global recession in 75 years, Labor acted decisively to keep the doors of small business open through targeted fiscal stimulus, bank guarantees to secure the flow of credit to small business, and through our highly successful $3.7 billion small business investment allowance.
The Gillard Government will introduce a loss carry back scheme to provide immediate tax relief for businesses which report a loss.
In its first four years, this major tax reform will provide assistance to around 110,000 companies struggling with the challenges of an economy in transition, helping them ride out difficult times and invest for the future.
Currently businesses are able to carry forward losses to offset future profits and therefore reduce their tax bills.
This reform will allow businesses to ‘carry back’ their losses, applying them to their previous tax paid, and receive a refund on some of that tax paid.
The 2012-13 Budget also funds major tax breaks for Australian small businesses using the proceeds of the Minerals Resources Rent Tax. Together with our reforms to put a price on carbon, the MRRT means that from 1 July this year, small businesses will be able to instantly write-off any new business asset worth up to $6,500, for as many assets as they purchase. This important measure will be worth more than $1 billion to Australian small businesses in 2013-14 alone.
From 1 July this year, we will also let small businesses instantly write-off the first $5,000 of a motor vehicle. We recognise that for many small businesses their biggest asset is a ute or van. This very significant tax break will help free up cash flow and encourage businesses to reinvest and grow.
In the 2012-13 Budget, the Government is also extending its highly successful Small Business Advisory Service program with $27.5 million over four years to continue supporting Australia’s small businesses with vital advice and assistance.
The Gillard Government is also establishing the first Australian Small Business Commissioner who will be a point of contact for small business services and information.
The 2012-13 Budget builds on the Government’s strong track record of managing the economy in the interests of working Australians, growing our nation’s productive capacity and building the foundations for a prosperous future.
While our political opponents talk Australia down, we believe our country has a bright future.
We are investing in difficult long-term reforms such as the NDIS, aged care reform, putting a price on carbon, the Minerals Resource Rent Tax, the NBN and improvements to the tax system.
These are initiatives that will ensure Australians can make the most of the opportunities ahead in the Asian Century while staying true to the things Labor has always stood for – front-line services for working Australians, jobs and help for those who need it most.
This is a fair and balanced budget in the interests of working Australians that will ensure our economy remains the standout performer in the developed world.
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Dirty dancing
by Alan Thornhill
France steps out.
Australia steps in.
The Austerity Polka.
The European Union began with a dream.
Something better than two world wars in a century.
Working together looked good.
But after the GFC struck, back in 2008, things went wrong.
The EU’s austere response, championed by Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy, started to produce troubling signs.
Historically high levels of unemployment in weaker EU countries, like Greece, Spain and Ireland.
Just the kind of thing that eventually led to WW2, back in the 1930s.
Groucho Marx once urged world leaders to learn from the mistakes of others.
He told them that they would not live long enough to make all possible mistakes, themselves.
And, yes, the world did try the cautious approach back in the thirties, too.
Herbert Hoover, who became US president, just eight months after the Great Crash of 29, responded carefully, as he believed a good Republican should.
Sure, he ordered Federal authorities to speed up construction projects, while cutting taxes and doubling spending on public works.
But by 1933, when a quarter of all US workers were unemployed, Hoover was criticised for his refusal to authorise large-scale relief programs.
Hoover had been unwilling to commit large amounts of of government money to economic stimulation.
He had failed to recognise the all-encompassing nature of the Great Depression.
About that time the British economist, John Maynard Keynes, produced a catchy bit of algebra, that was later accepted as justification for more expansionary policies, in downturns.
That’s what French – and Greek – voters are saying they want now.
Australia’s Treasurer, Wayne Swan, who followed Keynsian steps – successfully – after the 2008 crash will introduce a surplus budget, this week.
A modest surplus, he says, because revenue is down.
That, he adds, is also what Keynes demands.
Applying the brakes, gently, when growth returns.
Keynes didn’t have much to say, though, about two speed economies.
When shopkeepers are forced to cut prices, for example, to stay in business.
While a construction slump continues.
As a mining boom rolls on.
Tricky, anyway you look at it.
There are also clear signs that Australia’s job market is weakening.
And the nation’s economic growth this year won’t be strong enough to absorb this year’s school leavers, in its job market.
Australia is still not faced with harsh austerity.
Even mild steps, though, can be mistimed.
Economic management is like dancing.
Timing matters.
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Westpac cuts rates
by Alan Thornhill
Westpac has become the third of Australia’s big four banks to cut its interest rates, in the wake of the 0.5 per cent cut the Reserve Bank made in its marker rate, last Tuesday.
Like the National Australia and Commonwealth Banks, though, Westpac will pass on only part of the RBA cut, to its home loan customers.
Westpac announced it will reduce its standard variable mortgage rate by 0.37 percentage points to 7.09 per cent.
The bank’s business customers, though, will have their variable rates cut by the full 0.5 per cent.
These new rates are effective from 14 May 2012.
Only the ANZ bank has still to announce its response to the Reserve Bank’s cut.
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Alan Thornhill is a parliamentary press gallery journalist. Private Briefing is updated daily with Australian personal finance news, analysis, and commentary.