Why Ross Garnaut has great faith in you

Worried about the necessary adjustments to climate change?

You shouldn’t be. The Federal government’s adviser on these matters, Ross Garnaut, has great faith in you.

“Experience shows that once economic agents have accepted the inevitability of change, they will alter their behaviour to account for the new conditions more efficiently and effectively than previously predicted,” Professor Garnaut says, in his interim report on the challenges Australia faces with climate change.

Take a bow. That’s you he is talking about, when he uses those odd words, “economic agents.”

You already know, don’t you, that the recalcitrants are wrong?

And that the perceived necessity to adjust to climate change is based on good science?

And that’s not all of the encouragement Professor Garnaut has to offer.

“The experience suggests that economic models are likely to underestimate the benefits or overestimate the costs of economic reform,” he says.

Professor Garnaut, of course, is talking here about the economic reforms necessitated by climate change.

His message here is that you, personally, have a part to play in all this.

This is a democracy. So get out and encourage your local politician to support those necessary changes.

He, or she, may need quite a lot of encouragement in that direction, right now.
There will, of course, be the usual benefits for the early adopters.

“Consumers who are willing and able to replace higher emission products with lower emission products will adjust relatively painlessly,” Professor Garnaut says.

That will be true, also, for producers.

“Firms with less dependence on emissions intensive processes, or which have the ability to switch production processes quickly in order to minimise their exposure to carbon price, may find that their market share and profitability increase,” he adds.

As always, good research will usually be very worthwhile.

The next thing to watch for, is the outline of Australia’s likely emissions trading scheme.

That is due to be released this week.

Related stories:

1. Climate change:the big choices
2. Climate change:the new test

It’s “theological fervour:” Abbott

There is at least one politician who doesn’t mince his words.

Tony Abbott believes the global warming debate is running wild – and he is prepared say so.

He did that yesterday, when backing Liberal Leader, Brendan Nelson, who has been accused of fudging on issue of emmissions trading.

“What Brendan’s really done is started to question the apocolyptic language and theological fervour with which the issue at the moment is being pursued with,” Abbott said.

“I think it’s long overdue for something like that to happen and I applaud Brendan,” he added.

There are problems, of course, with Abbott’s approach.

The biggest, perhaps, is that he rdimisses the best available science as “apocolyptic” nonsense.
Abbott also riducules those who, demand intelligent responses to ther  deeply disturbing warnings scientists are giving the world, on Greehous Gas emmissions.

In its own way, Professor Ross Garnaut’s draft report, on the climate challenge Australia faces, is, indeed,  every bit as apocolyptic as Cormac McCarthy’s brilliant novel, The Road.

But while McCarthy’s disturbing work is fiction, Garnaut’s is not. It is soundly based on science.
But Abbott has, admrably, gone right to the heart of the arch -conservative’s position, on the issue of climate change, and stated it clearly.
Big business came close, last week, when the Business Council of Australia warned, bluntly, against what it called “scaremongering” on carbon trading.

Its president, Greg Gailey, said Australia could not solve the problem of global warming, alone.

However he said it could set a good precedent for the rest of the world.

That, at least, was positive.

Abbott’s statement was not

He, effectively, accused those pressing for action on climate change of basing their case on empty “apocolyptic” visions and bad “theology.”

Even for a former seminarian, this was an odd choice of language.

Make no mistake, though. Abbott’s words will resonate with those people who see “greenies” as a latter day quasi religious cult. That view is quite common.

A glance at current vehicle registrations illustrates that. Big four wheel drives and hot hatches are still selling very well.

But we should thank Tony Abbott for at least one thing.

He has shown the public, very clearly, how the arch -conservative’s mind works.

Climate change:will your beach be all washed up?

How will climate change affect your favourite beach and your lifestyle?

People living on the New South Wales Central coast will be able to discuss issues like that, with senior Federal politicians later this week.

That will happen when the House of Represenatives Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts visit Lake Macquarie on Thursday.

This hearing is destined to be among the first of many, on the microeconomic and local aspects of issues raised in the Federal government’s Garnaut report.

Similar meetings will be held, over the coming year, in most parts of Australia.

Professor Garnaut, himself, explained his report to a public meeting in Perth yesterday, the first of several such meetings to be held nationally.

The parliamentary committee’s chair, Jennie George, said important issues would be raised at the Lake Macquarie meeting.

“Climate change, particularly projected sea level rise, has serious implications for coastal areas,” Ms George said.

“Much of Australia’s population and infrastructure is in the coastal zone.,

“The growth in population along the coast is also increasing pressure on the environment in many areas,” she said.

The Garnaut report, on the implications of climate change, also encouraged local communities to think seriously about what they can do, to meet its challenges.

“Many people will have thoughtful contributions to make,” Ms George said.

“And this open public forum will allow them to have their say,” she added.

The central message of the Garnaut report is also compelling.

All Australians have a part to play in managing climate change.

So you will need to be prepared, when your call comes.

Related stories:

1. Climate change:the big choices
2. Climate change:the new test

Emmission trading:the politics

Australia needs a robust emmissions trading scheme, if it is to avoid the worst results of climate change.

So what are its chances of actually getting one?

It is, of course, too early to say, just yet.

But it would certainly take great political courage.

Especially as petrol prices would start rising in 2010.

That, of course, is the year in which Kevin Rudd and his government will have to face voters, in the next scheduled Federal elections.

One thing we can be sure about, before then, is that the prime minister won’t be entertaining himself, with videos of the old television program, Yes Minister.

He certainly won’t want to hear Sir Humphrey telling the world, once more, that “a courageous decision” in politics, is one that will cost you the next election.

Equally, though, it is nonsense to declare, as some analysts have, that the Federal government is now facing tougher decisions, than any other government before it.

What about those two World Wars, last Century?

Unarguably, though, the decisions the government now faces will be tough enough.

Even the government’s own climate change adviser, Professor Ross Garnaut, says strong public education programs will be needed.

Media proprietors, throughout Australia, will be delighted to hear that.

The “rivers of gold” – as Kerry Packer once called advertising revenue – will soon run again, even if the Murray Darling system stays dry.

There will be big obstacles, though.

The opposition is playing its cards close to its chest.

However most analysts would be surprised if Brendan Nelson does come out strongly in support of a robust emmissions trading scheme.

His pledge of a 5 cents a litre cut in petrol excise is not an encouraging sign, for those who want serious action.

The government has its own problems, too.

Its main man, Kevin Rudd, is no orator.

He has not yet presented the climate change message with the necessary clarity, brevity and force.

And he doesn’t have a lot of time.

The bureaucrat within him is  still in the ascendant.

That won’t be good enough, as the going gets tough.

And it certainly will.

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Climate change:It’s arrived

Climate change is already with us.

And the news is not good.

Some of Australia’s top scientists have reported, for example, that we can now expect droughts much more often, than they have occurred in the past.
The old assumption, based on the experience of previous generations, was that the nation could expect a drought about every 20 years.

A report, just produced jointly by the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO changes that.

It says we can now expect serious drought like conditions, somewhere in Australia, every one or two years.

Kevin Rudd is alarmed.

“Now this is a serious revision of the impact of climate change on drought,” the prime minister said, in a television interview yesterday.

He said, too, that the issue cannot be avoided.

“The easiest thing to do is stick your head in the sand and say ‘not my problem.’”

But he said most Australians expect the government to take a responsible stand, on climate change, for the sake of their children.

“We need to do it for the economy.” Rudd said.

“But we need to do it for the environment, so that the people who come after use have some place where they can live, and live as we have lived,” he added.

Related stories:

1. Climate change:the big choices
2. Climate change:the new test

Climate change:the new test

The Rudd Labor government will face its toughest test tomorrow.

That’s when Professor Ross Garnaut will present his draft report on climate change.

The government will follow that with a discussion paper, setting out the options.

That is, in bureaucratic talk, a green paper.

Professor Garnaut is to produce his final report in September.

That, in turn, will be followed by a white paper, in which the government will spell out its climate change policies.

Although the debate is still at an early stage, Professor Garnaut has already made central points clear.

The most basic is that while tackling climate change seriously now will be expensive, it will still be much cheaper than taking the apparently easier path, and doing little or nothing.

Rudd built, cleverly, on the early euphoria, with which accompanied his government’s early days.

His apology to Australia’s Aborigines, for their treatment at the hands of white Australians – and the 2020 Summit – were both brilliant moves.

Policies that tackle climate change, though, will -necessarily – involve all the expense and the discomfort, that can come with adopting new, tighter ways of living.

Rudd will have just one chance to make those changes.

That will be this year.

A combination of soaring fuel prices, higher food bills, steep falls in share prices and high interest rates will, certainly, erode public confidence, after that. This is happening already.

A strong , efficient carbon trading scheme will be central to the Rudd government’s climate change policies.

And they must include private cars, if those policies are to have a serious chance of success.

Brendan Nelson has already signalled, though, that the opposition will be looking for all the votes it can get, as all this proceeds.

He has already said that it is “not yet certain” that the opposition will support the government, in this area.

That would be a tragedy, of the first order, for future generations.

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Climate change:the realities

Australia will start to get an idea of where it is going on climate change, later this week.

That will happen when Professor Ross Garnaut’s draft report on the nation’s options is published.

It will be published on Friday.

Professor Garnaut’s final report won’t be released until September.

Garnaut is making no secret of the fact that climate change science is still far from mature.

But he is  also saying that the costs of waiting until it is will, almost certainly, be higher than those of starting to act now.

He compares the state of public knowledge now with that which existed, when Columbus sailed west, several centuries ago, searching for China.

Garnaut admitted, too, that even the best climate change scientists we have now differ, even with each other, on important points.

He concedes, too, that Galileo’s case shows that one person can be right, when many others are wrong.

But he says uncertainty is no excuse for inaction.

And Garnaut warns that, in current circumstances, the “business as usual” option must be rated as “high risk.”

“This has no close precedent,” he said.

The professor’s draft report, though, is expected to provide the first real guide to the approach to climate change, that the Rudd government is likely to take.

This will be a rough – and expensive – ride.

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Kyoto and you:they want to know

Australia did not ratify the Kyoto treaty until December last year.

Kevin Rudd had promised to do so, before last November’s elections.

John Howard had repeatedly refused to do so.

Now Australia’s politicians want to know how that ratification affects you.

That step certainly was significant.

The government now wants to cut emmissions of greenhouse gases by 60 per cent, over the next 42 years.

It is also planning to establish an emmissions trading scheme by 2010.

Parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Treaties is now planning to examine the implications of the Kyoto agreement.

It is calling for public submissions on :-

• the position Australia should be taking on future negotiations on the treaty
• the opportunities and obligations arising from it and
• the present and future impacts of global warming.

If you would like to know more go to www.aph.gov.au/isct