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Thursday 11th August 2016 - 6:18 pm
Comments Off on Social isolation rates high:research

Social isolation rates high:research

by Alan Thornhill

Social isolation rates are high in Australia, according to new research that the National Australia Bank published today.

 

 

The bank said less than two thirds (58 per cent) of Australians now feel connected to their local communities.

 

 

It said, too, that young women and labourers were among Australia’s most isolated people.

 

 

But older people, including widowed people and over 50s, were among those feeling the most connected.

 

 

These results showed up in a special report on Wellbeing and Importance of Community Connections.

 

 

The bank said  networks play an important role in overall community wellbeing.

 

 

It also said that while there is little difference between the sense of community connection between men and women overall, there are “notable differences by age, education, work, and relationship status.”

 

“Just as our personal wellbeing appears to increase with age so too does our feeling of community connection,” the bank said.

 

“Widows, closely followed by  over 50s (particularly women), married couples, Australians with a higher education and professional workers, not only report the highest level of personal wellbeing but they are also the most connected,” it added

 

“Similarly, there appears to be a relationship between low levels of personal wellbeing and weak community connections, with young women (18 to 29) and labourers the least connected groups.” ??The NAB Group’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster, said .

 

 

“The message is clear.

 

 

Those who feel more connected within their local communities typically have higher levels of personal wellbeing,” ??Mr Oster said.

 

 

He conceded that some of the isolation felt by younger people and labourers might due to age.

 

 

“But some may also be a by-product of modern living with a lesser degree of community connection  due to frequency of job changes, increased globalisation and the associated rise in relocations and the rise of online rather than physical communities and networks” Mr Oster added.

 

 

He said too that both men and women believe that addressing safety and law and order issues would have the greatest impact on improving wellbeing, followed by housing affordability, local jobs and health services.

 

 

“While there is much that individuals can do themselves such as volunteering and getting to know their neighbours, there is also a clear role for government, community groups and business, particularly regarding issues such as safety, housing employment and health in order to improve the wellbeing of Australians,” he added.

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Thursday 11th August 2016 - 1:43 pm
Comments Off on Commercial property:worth a look

Commercial property:worth a look

by Alan Thornhill

 

Commercial property?

 

With returns on interest investments at historic lows – and fresh doubts appearing about the future of residential investment, this might be worth some thought.

Especially in view of the results of the National Australia Bank’s latest Commercial Property Survey,which is for Q2 2016

 

It shows that: “sentiment in the retail commercial property market has risen to its highest level in over six years.”

 

However, the bank adds: “strong retail market confidence was not enough to offset the lower sentiment recorded across the office, industrial and CBD hotels sectors.

 

“ Overall, the NAB Commercial Property Index fell 7 points to +5 in the second quarter of this year,” it said.

 

“This was a strong quarter for capital growth in the retail property sector, with respondents expecting retail to grow 1.5 per cent in the next year.

 

“As a result, sentiment in the retail commercial property sector rose to its highest level since early 2010,” NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster said.

 

“However, sentiment from respondents was lower across all other sectors, particularly in CBD hotels which was the weakest sector overall .”

 

“Looking towards the future, confidence levels remain broadly unchanged over the next one to two years across all markets.”

 

Market sentiment remained strongest in NSW (+37) and Victoria (+28), likely driven by the continued non-mining recovery whilst sentiment fell heavily in SA/NT (-27

to -51) and, although still subdued, improved slightly in WA (up +4 to -48).

 

The Q2 Survey showed that one in two developers plan to start new works within the next six months.

 

“But developers have also reported further deterioration in their debt and equity funding situations.”

 

That is expected to continue over the next six months.

 

“This is coupled with respondents reporting the average pre-commitment percentage required for developments increased for the fifth straight quarter,” Mr Oster said.

 

The Bank said About 230 property professionals had participated in the Q2 Survey.

Wednesday 10th August 2016 - 1:04 pm
Comments Off on Lending for investment housing rises

Lending for investment housing rises

by Alan Thornhill

Lending for investment housing rose by 3.2 per cent last month, on seasonally adjusted figures published by the Bureau of Statistics today.

 

The Bureau’s figures show that almost $11.8 billion was made available, through fixed loans, for this purpose last month.

 

The Bureau also reported that there had been a 1.2 per cent rise, in commitments for owner occupied housing last month.

 

Loans for the construction of dwellings rose by 2.1 per cent in June, while lending for the purchase of established dwellings rose by 1 per cent.

 

Lending for the purchase of new dwellings rose by 2.7 per cent in June.

Tuesday 9th August 2016 - 2:48 pm
Comments Off on New risks loom

New risks loom

by Alan Thornhill

A new business survey shows that while the Australian economy is still strong, medium to longer term risks are becoming more apparent.

 

These are the conclusions the National Australia Bank’s Chief Economist, Alan Oster, reaches from the results of the bank’s  latest monthly business survey.

 

The bank sid: “for a while now, the NAB Business Survey has provided a relatively consistent message on the health of the Australian economy.”

 

And it added: “It continues to show a steady recovery in non-mining activity, with the services sectors clearly leading the way.”

 

However Mr Oster added a warning.

 

He said:  “there were some notable differences in business conditions across industries this month. “

 

“The largest deterioration was in mining, followed by big falls in transport and wholesale.”

 

“Retail saw the largest improvement, following a weak result last month.”

 

But  Mr Oster said:  “…the contribution from major industries suggests a relatively mixed bag.”

 

He said the service sectors continue to be the best performers.

 

“ Signs of a broadening recovery in recent months have again become more obscure following sharp deteriorations in transport and wholesale – although the recovery in retail conditions was encouraging.”

 

The bank said the economy could run into headwinds from 2017.

 

And it added: “these headwinds may require additional policy action to support growth, especially if the RBA hopes to see inflation return to within its target band.

 

“ Both global and domestic disinflationary pressures are expected to keep CPI inflation below the target band for an extended period.

 

And structural shifts in the economy and modest economic growth would leave the unemployment rate under pressure.

 

“To stabilise the unemployment rate (at around 5.5 per cent) we expect the RBA will feel the need to provide further medium term support through two more 25bp cuts in May and August 2017 (to a new low of 1 per cent).

“And thereafter raises the prospect of the RBA thinking about the use of non-conventional monetary policy measures,” it added.

Monday 8th August 2016 - 7:27 pm
Comments Off on Job ads “ease”

Job ads “ease”

by Alan Thornhill

Job advertising fell last month, according to research the ANZ bank published today.

 

The bank said job ads fell by 0.8 per cent in July.

 

It said this was the first decline since April and may reflect heightened uncertainty temporarily delaying the hiring plans of some employers.

 

It added that the annual growth in job ads has slowed to 6.9 per cent from 8.0 per cent  the previous month.

 

 

The bank said too, that the fall in July was driven by both internet and newspaper job ads.

 

Internet job advertisements, which are the main driver of total job ads, declined by 0.7 per cent in July, the bank noted.

 

It said that annual growth in internet jobs ads had slowed from 8.8 per cent  in June to 7.9 per cent in July.

 

The more volatile newspaper ads remain on a structural downward trend and fell further in July, down 12.6 per cent  in the month to be 41.7 per cent  lower than a year ago.

 

The bank’s head of Australian Economics, Felicity Emmett, said:  “the labour market has lost some momentum so far in 2016.”

 

She said there had been :  “slower average growth in both employment and job ads seeing the unemployment rate stabilise around 5.75 per cent.

 

The labour market has lost some momentum so far in 2016, with slower average growth in both employment and job ads seeing the unemployment rate stabilise around 5.75 per cent, in the second half of last year from a peak of 6.3 per cent.”

 

Ms Emmett said, too, that: “more recently, job ads rebounded strongly in May, followed by a modest rise in June.”

 

But she also noted that:  “…these increases have been partly unwound by the decline in July.

 

“Given that ads fell sharply in early July, we think this decline may partly reflect the impact of increased uncertainty following the close federal election on 2 July and the shock decision by the UK to leave the European Union on 24 June,” she said.

 

This impact appears to have been short-lived,

 

Job advertising fell las month, according to research the ANZ bank published today.

 

Ms Emmett also said:  “the labour market has lost some momentum so far in 2016.”

 

Ms Emmett said, too, that: “… job ads rebounded strongly in May, followed by a modest rise in June.”

 

But she also noted that:  “…these increases have been partly unwound by the decline in July.

 

“Given that ads fell sharply in early July, we think this decline may partly reflect the impact of increased uncertainty following the close federal election on 2 July and the shock decision by the UK to leave the European Union on 24 June,” she said.

 

This impact appears to have been short-lived,” Ms Emmett added.

 

 

With surveyed business conditions remaining upbeat and the RBA cutting rates in August, we look for a gradual improvement in hiring intentions over the remainder of the year,” Ms Emmett said.

 

 

Wednesday 3rd August 2016 - 9:47 pm
Comments Off on PM confronts banks

PM confronts banks

by Alan Thornhill

Malcolm Turnbull directly challenged Australia’s big banks today, saying they should pass on the rate cut the Reserve Bank announced earlier this week in full, or explain why.

 

So far the banks have been passing on about half of the 0.25 per centage point cut.

 

That has left families with $300,000 mortgages some $20 a month out of pocket.

 

The Prime Minister said Australia had needed a period of economic transition after its huge mining construction boom.

 

“That’s why we have the big trade export deals, the big deals, the big free trade deals,” he said.

 

However the shadow Treasurer, Chris Bowen disagreed.

 

He said the government was simply “chest beating” on the rate cut.

 

So, this is a Government which is being exposed for a lack of economic leadership, for a lack of economic plan,” Mr Bowen said.

 

He said the government had no plan to increase investment in the non-mining sector, to ensure that we have jobs for the future. “

 

Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison are simply not up to the job,” Mr Bowen said.

Wednesday 3rd August 2016 - 1:59 pm
Comments Off on How we spend our time – and money

How we spend our time – and money

by Alan Thornhill

Hard working Australians, who leave themselves little time to shop, are buying more of their food and groceries online.

 

The National Australia Bank, which watches these trends, says we spent more than $20 billion, making online purchases over the past year.

 

And the strongest growth, seen in that time, was among those aged 35 to 44.

 

That is people of prime working age.

 

Their spending on groceries and liquor rose by 20,5 per cent over the past year.

 

They also spent 19.2 per cent more on homewares and appliances.

 

Meanwhile 18-24 year olds spent 22 per cent more on fashion and 19.9 per cent more on media.

 

The bank said that while overall growth in online spending was still quite strong, it had flattened from that seen back in 2011 when the index was first established.

 

The bank’s Chief Econmomist, Alan Oster, said  “the $20.1 billion spent online by Australians in the last year is equivalent to 6.8 per per cent of spending in the bricks and mortar’ retail sector.

 

“And growth by online businesses is far outpacing these traditional retailers,” he added.s

Tuesday 2nd August 2016 - 4:17 pm
Comments Off on Rates hit new low

Rates hit new low

by Alan Thornhill

The Reserve Bank today cut its cash rate by 25 basis points, to its lowest level ever, just 1.5 cent.

 

Explaining the decision, the bank’s Governor, Glenn Stevens said: “the global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace.

 

“Several advanced economies have recorded improved conditions over the past year, but conditions have become more difficult for a number of emerging market economies.

 

“Actions by Chinese policymakers are supporting the near-term growth outlook, but the underlying pace of China’s growth appears to be moderating, “ Mr Stevens said.

 

He noted that: “commodity prices are above recent lows.”

 

However he added: “…this follows very substantial declines over the past couple of years.

 

“Australia’s terms of trade remain much lower than they had been in recent years.

 

“Financial markets have continued to function effectively.

 

Mr Stevens said: ” Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative.

 

“In Australia, recent data suggests that overall growth is continuing at a moderate pace, despite a very large decline in business investment,” he added.

 

“Other areas of domestic demand, as well as exports, have been expanding at a pace at or above trend.

 

“Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed, but are consistent with a modest pace of expansion in employment in the near term.

 

“Recent data confirm that inflation remains quite low.

 

“Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.

 

 

“Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time,” Mr Stevens said.

 

 

The Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s inflation rate, on the Consumer Price Index, stood at just 1 per cent in the 12 months to the end of June.

 

That is well below the bank’s target range – of 2 to 3 per cent inflation – over the course  of a business cycle.

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