Employers urge moderation in the national wage case

The union claim for a minimum wage rise of $30 a week is a threat to small business, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry says.

The Chamber’s Chief Executive, Peter Anderson, sounded this warning today, as this year’s National Wage Case opened before a full bench of the Fair Work Commission.

He described the ACTU’s claim as “a raid on the payrolls of hard working small employers that will weaken business viability, reduce profitability and cost jobs.”

Mr Anderson said policy makers – including the Commission’s 7-member wages panel – must pay due attention to the well-being of two million small businesses employing seven million people.

He said small business owners are under just as much – if not more – cost pressure as lower paid workers.

“Many are themselves low-paid given the low profits and long hours they and family members devote to their business,” Mr Anderson said.

He urged the Commission to award only a modest rise.

Mr Anderson said, too, that carve outs must be allowed for businesses which do not have the capacity to pay wage rises.

The Commission should also authorize employers, specifically, to offset any amount ordered to fund a .25 per cent rise in the rise in the compulsory superannuation levy from July 1.

“Without a specific superannuation wage offset, small business faces a job and soul destroying double whammy on 1st July, with a superannuation levy rise plus an across-the-board wage rise,” Mr Anderson said.

He said the ACCI is proposing a rise of no more than $5.80 a week.

Mr Anderson said that would be consistent with the alarming budget forecast last week of weaker growth and higher unemployment next year.

The right man for the job? Wrong question!

Is the best man for the job actually a woman?

A new report suggests that more women in traditionally male-dominated industries would lead to an improved economy.

The Australian Human Rights Commission calls the report, which it published today, “Women in male-dominated industries: A toolkit of strategies.”

Sex Discrimination Commissioner, Elizabeth Broderick, has the mining, utilities and construction industries in her sights.

She says the underrepresentation of women in male-dominated industries like these is not only undermining gender equality in Australia, but is having negative impacts s on industry performance and our economy.

“The Toolkit was developed to help address this problem,” Commissioner Broderick said.

“This is not merely a report, but an interactive website developed to encourage dialogue, engagement and sharing of approaches about increasing women’s representation in male-dominated industries,” she added.

“It encourages employers, employees, government, community, and unions to think about the contribution women can make and to actively share strategies for attracting, recruiting, retaining and developing women’s skills in traditionally male-dominated fields.”

“In Australia’s general workforce, women represent almost 46 per cent of employees,” Commissioner Broderick said.

“However, in the industries of construction, mining, and utilities, women account for only around 12 per cent, 15 per cent, and 23 per cent of employees respectively.

Recent figures suggest that increasing women’s employment rates could boost Australia’s GDP by 11 per cent,” Commissioner Broderick said.

“Australia ranks fourth in the world in talent shortages and many male-dominated industries are suffering a lack of skilled workers,” she said.

“Encouraging greater women’s participation in these industries is one solution that could go a long way to addressing these skills shortages.”

“Our Toolkit is divided into the areas of attraction, recruitment, retention and development of women’s skills in industries that have traditionally remained dominated by male leadership and employees,” Ms Broderick added.

“Users can work through or contribute to discussion in all four areas or any of the four that are most relevant to them.”

In developing the Toolkit, the Australian Human Rights Commission, with the support of the Minister for the Status of Women and FaCHSIA, brought together members of these male dominated industries to gather information on their experience and knowledge.

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The budget at a glance

The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, says:-

The Government has a clear path to return the budget to surplus by 2016?17 while supporting jobs and growth and building a stronger economy, a smarter nation and a fairer society.

Australia’s economy continues to outperform most of the developed world.

The unusual combination of a sustained high Australian dollar and falling commodity prices has led to weaker profits and reduced budget revenues.

The budget charts a path to surplus, although the hit to revenues will see a budget deficit of $18 billion in 2013-14.

A stronger economy

This Budget builds a stronger economy by investing $24 billion in roads, including highways and rail in our cities and regions. It also provides $1 billion in a plan for Australian jobs, supporting Australian industry by backing Australian companies to win more work at home and abroad, and helping small and medium businesses to grow and create new jobs.

Smarter

This Budget builds a smarter nation, ensuring our children have the education they need for the high?skilled, high wage jobs of the future. It invests $9.8 billion over six years from 2014-15 for A National Plan for School Improvement, which provides fairness and will drive improved student outcomes, representing a once?in-a-generation reform to Australia’s schools. The Budget also undertakes a record $1.1 billion investment in early childhood education.

Fairer

This Budget builds a fairer society by investing $19.3 billion over seven years from 2012-13 to deliver DisabilityCare Australia, one of the biggest social reforms in our nation’s history, to ensure that Australians with significant and permanent disability get the care and support they deserve.

It also builds on the $16.4 billion National Health Reform Agreement to continue improving access to high quality care, medicines and support services and makes important investments in rural and regional Australia.

Savings for the longer term

The Budget builds on the Government’s record of identifying enduring savings to make room for critical economic and social reform priorities and to ensure ongoing fiscal sustainability. This Budget makes $43 billion of savings across the forward estimates and fully funds priority investments for over a decade.

KEY INITIATIVES OF THE 2013–14 BUDGET

Historic investment in Australian schooling

$9.8 billion over six years in once-in-a-generation school reforms to enhance Australia’s future productivity and wellbeing, ensuring that every student in every school gets the help they need.

Undertaking a record $1.1 billion investment in early childhood education.

DisabilityCare Australia

Investment in DisabilityCare Australia of $14.9 billion over seven years – Australia’s most fundamental social policy reform since Medicare.
Raising the Medicare levy by half a percentage point to provide a strong and enduring funding stream for DisabilityCare Australia.

The next wave of Nation Building

Committing to new infrastructure investment, bringing the Government’s total investment to around $60 billion from 2008?09 to 2018?19.
Transformative road and rail infrastructure investments, including $4.1 billion for the Bruce Highway, $3 billion for Melbourne Metro, $1.8 billion for Sydney Motorways, $448 million for the Adelaide South Road upgrade and $418 million for the Swan Valley Bypass in Perth.

Investing in key health services

$226 million to improve cancer prevention, detection, treatment and research, and provide better patient care and support.
$691 million over five years in new listings under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, including for chronic nerve pain, hepatitis C and Parkinson’s disease.

Boosting productivity through innovation, education, skills and research

$1 billion investment in boosting Australian innovation, productivity and competitiveness under A Plan for Australian Jobs.
$300 million over four years to support jobseekers in the work transition, including lifting the Income Free Area under Newstart Allowance.
$135 million for 150 four-year Future Fellowships.

Supporting stronger regions

$330 million to support the historic Tasmanian Forests Agreement.
$99 million investment in a new Farm Household Allowance to support farmers in hardship.

Making our retirement income system stronger and fairer

Raising the Superannuation Guarantee from 9 to 12 per cent from 1 July 2013 to 1 July 2019, boosting retirement savings of 8.4 million Australians.
$112 million pilot to assist age pensioners to downsize their family homes, via a means test exemption of up to $200,000 for ten years.

Wayne Swan’s budget speech

Tonight this Labor Government makes the choice to keep our economy strong and invest in our future.

To support jobs and growth in an uncertain world.

To chart a pathway to surplus through responsible savings.

And to ensure no Australian is left behind because of the circumstances of their birth or misfortune in their life.

Speaker, no government gets to choose the global economic circumstances in which the budget is framed.

But you do get to choose the priorities for the nation.

Labor chooses a stronger, smarter and fairer Australia.

An Australia where our school children get the opportunity to reach their full potential with $9.8 billion invested in new school funding.

An Australia which gives dignity to people with severe and permanent disability through the historic $14.3 billion investment in DisabilityCare Australia. This is a proud moment for our country.

An Australia with the critical infrastructure we need to drive our economy forward, with $24 billion new investment in road and rail.

An Australia where our prosperity spreads opportunity to every postcode in our nation.

Speaker, tonight, we put in place the savings to fully fund these priority investments for 10 years and beyond, an achievement unprecedented in our nation’s history.

We make these historic investments in the Labor tradition from a position of economic strength.

The facts are, under Labor’s economic leadership:

Our economy is 13 per cent bigger than before the GFC.

More than 950,000 jobs have been created with more Australians in work than ever before — there is no fact we are more proud of.

For the first time ever we have a Triple-A credit rating from all three global agencies with a stable outlook — one of only eight countries to do so.

And all this with contained inflation and new record low interest rates.

That is because we got the big calls right on the economy.

Now we enter a period where new choices must be made.

Challenging global conditions and the high Australian dollar have put huge pressure on the Budget and led to a significant reduction in expected tax receipts totalling over $60 billion over the four years to 2015-16.

Speaker, we face a clear choice.

Radical cuts to the bone that would risk jobs and our economy.

Or a sensible, calm and responsible approach that puts jobs first.

We have always put the interests of working Australians first.

In this Budget, we do so again.

Just because the global economy took an axe to our budget, does not mean we should take an axe to our economy.

Just as we shielded Australia from the worst during the GFC, we will continue to follow the responsible middle course.

Two simple but powerful words are at the heart of our approach and they mean an awful lot to every Australian watching tonight — jobs and growth.

Speaker, because of our deep commitment to jobs and growth we have taken the responsible course to delay the return to surplus, and due to a savage hit to tax receipts there will be a deficit of $18 billion in 2013-14.

The alternative, cutting to the bone, puts Australian jobs and our economy at risk, something this Labor government will never accept.

Speaker, this is our choice.

To those who would take us down the European road of savage austerity I say the social destruction that comes from cutting too much, too hard, too fast is not the Australian way.

Instead, we’re making targeted, sustainable savings of $43 billion over the forward estimates.

To deliver a measured and balanced consolidation of around ½ a per cent of GDP a year on average from 2013-14.

Since mid-2009 we have fully offset all new spending with savings measures and that continues tonight.

This discipline gives Australia a responsible pathway back to balance in 2015-16 and surplus by 2016-17.

It is a fairer way forward, by helping modern families with targeted assistance for the everyday pressures, by delivering the Schoolkids Bonus and through the Low Income Super Contributions.

A smarter way forward providing businesses with a skilled workforce, boosting incentives to innovate and adapt, to reap the benefits of the Asian Century.

And a stronger way forward, investing in education and training, boosting productivity, protecting and creating jobs, growing the economy, and keeping inflation and interest rates low.
Economic and fiscal strength

Speaker, tonight we build on Australia’s resilience during the global financial crisis and its fallout.

Our nation’s outlook is bright and our economy is set to grow faster than most of the developed world.

Real GDP growth of 2¾ per cent in 2013-14 and 3 per cent in 2014-15.

By mid 2015, our economy will be 22 per cent bigger than before the global financial crisis, outstripping every major advanced economy.
An economy in transition

From this position of strength, our economy is undergoing an important transition.

Our nation’s largest resource investment boom is shifting to a boom in production and exports.

As the resources boom enters its new phase, the economy is also transitioning towards broader sources of economic growth.

And while our opportunities are great and our future bright, this transition will not be seamless.

Unemployment is forecast at 5¾ per cent in 2013-14, up slightly, but still among the lowest in the developed world.

This transition comes against the backdrop of a profound shift in the global economy.

The weight of economic activity is shifting towards our region.

As the Asian century unfolds, there are many new opportunities.

Not just in mining, also for our farmers, manufacturers, and service providers, but only if we make the choice to invest.

Because you don’t want to find yourself in the fastest growing region in the world, with yesterday’s economy.

You can’t be a first-world economy in the 21st century if you haven’t laid the groundwork to seize the opportunities.

Training a highly skilled, educated and productive workforce.

Supporting business to be innovative and competitive.

Investing in high quality infrastructure.

Ensuring a strong, fair and sustainable tax system.

All achievements of this Budget.

And you can’t be a first-world economy in the 21st century if you’re not on the path to a clean energy future.

As is widely accepted, putting a price on carbon pollution is the lowest cost and most efficient way to tackle dangerous climate change.

This Budget recognises as we move to an emissions trading scheme the carbon price is likely to be lower as is associated spending, reflecting lower costs to the economy, households and business.

We will continue to deliver existing household assistance, including increases in pensions, allowances, family payments and other benefits, and ensure future assistance remains adequate.
Weaker tax revenue

While our economy remains resilient, powerful global forces and the stubbornly high Australian dollar have savaged budget revenues.

Not since Hawke and Keating floated the dollar has it remained so high.

This has put acute pressure on prices and company profits, weighing more heavily than expected on tax receipts.

Speaker, let’s be clear about the magnitude of the hit to revenue.

This year we face the second largest revenue writedown since the Great Depression.

Since last year’s Budget, expected tax receipts for 2012-13 have been written down by $17 billion.

And since our mid year update in October, there has been a total revenue write down of over $60 billion over the next four years.

Company taxes, capital gains tax, resource rent taxes have all been hit.

We’ve seen almost $170 billion wiped off our tax receipts since the GFC.

The tax-to-GDP ratio in 2013-14 is estimated to be 22.2 per cent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the average of the 5 years prior to the GFC.

It’s as simple as this — if we were taxing Australian families and Australian businesses like our predecessors did, we’d have an extra $24 billion in taxes in 2013-14 and be comfortably in surplus every year of the forwards.

The hit to our tax collections will see our very low level of net debt peak at 11.4 per cent of GDP, still less than 1/8th the level of major advanced economies.

This Budget sets a sensible pathway to surplus, while making room for the big investments in our nation’s future.

We’ve put in place over $180 billion in responsible savings over six budgets since 2008-09.

And we have been putting structural savings in place since day one.

The long-term savings we’ve made over the last five years add up to over $300 billion by 2020-21.

Of course, these savings involve some very difficult decisions.

But Labor has always tackled the reforms our nation needs.

We take the difficult decisions knowing they allow us to fully fund better schools for our children, the historic creation of DisabilityCare Australia, and of course the next wave of nation building.
Building a smarter nation

Speaker, we know that a smarter Australia means a stronger Australia.

An Australia able to grasp the opportunities of the Asian century.

A skilled workforce and a strong, productive and resilient economy.

We know we’ll only win the economic race in the Asian Century if we win the education race.

Our current school funding system is broken, it’s failing our children.

That’s why we are transforming our nation’s schools by investing $9.8 billion in new school funding.

Delivering more teacher training, extra resources for school libraries, specialist language assistance, and literacy assessments in the early years.

We are also ensuring funding will grow for every school.

The Budget fully funds this investment over the next decade, meaning we can return the Budget to surplus without leaving our children an education deficit.

Building on our unprecedented investments in early childhood education and care with $660 million to continue the National Partnership that will achieve universal access to preschool.

And establishing a $300 million Early Years Quality Fund to support childcare workers.

Speaker, this Labor Government has delivered a 75 per cent funding increase for university places, supporting around 189,000 more university students.

And in this Budget we ensure this funding continues to grow sustainably.

Tonight we announce an additional $97 million investment to boost the number of Commonwealth-supported university places, and an extra $186 million for research infrastructure.

Speaker, the investments we make tonight will ensure our children are equipped to take up the high-skill, high-wage jobs of the future.

On this side of the House, we believe every Australian child deserves the same opportunities in life, and a child’s postcode should not determine their future.
Building a fairer Australia

Speaker, the fair go is at the heart of everything Labor stands for.

That’s why we’re so proud to establish DisabilityCare Australia, the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

Supporting Australians with significant and permanent disability has long been in our nation’s heart.

In March we put it in our nation’s laws, and tonight we put it in our nation’s Budget.

Following in the huge footsteps of Medicare and Labor’s record of historic social policy reforms.

In 2018-19 around 460,000 Australians with significant and permanent disability will get the support they deserve.

Our current disability system is underfunded, unfair and fragmented.

For too long, people with disability have been denied the opportunity to live a life many of us take for granted.

For too long, Australia has failed to reform this broken system.

Speaker, tonight we right this wrong.

We provide choice, control and dignity to people with disability.

This could mean the difference between getting the right wheelchair now or waiting three long painful years using a wheelchair that doesn’t fit.

It could mean the difference between a shower every day, or only once a week.

This Budget will fully fund our share of DisabilityCare Australia, beyond the next decade.

From 1 July 2014 the Medicare levy will increase by ½ a percentage point.

The money raised will be placed in a special Fund for 10 years and only used for the additional costs of DisabilityCare Australia.

Tonight, we end the cruel lottery of the current system.

Speaker, the Government is investing $64.6 billion in health funding, up 40 per cent since we came to office.

This includes National Health Reform funding for state and territory Governments who will receive unprecedented growth of 35 per cent for public hospital services over the next four years.

This includes $14 billion in 2013-14 which grows to $19 billion in 2016-17.

This means that health funding to every state and every territory will grow over the forward estimates.

As a cancer survivor myself, I’ve experienced the high quality treatment provided by our health system but I know more needs to be done to prevent, detect and treat this disease.

Tonight’s Budget builds on the $3.5 billion we’ve already invested in cancer prevention, detection, treatment and research.

We continue the fight against cancer, investing over $226 million in world-leading cancer care.

Investing over $100 million in screening for breast, cervical and bowel cancer.

Supporting critical chemotherapy medicines, and investing $23.8 million for life-saving bone-marrow transplants.

Funding a third Prostate Cancer Research Centre and continuing support for the two existing Centres.

Supporting CanTeen’s work with young people living with cancer, and supporting those affected by lung cancer.

Speaker, Labor also has a strong record of supporting older Australians.

We introduced the largest single increase in the Age Pension in 100 years, and we introduced the Superannuation Guarantee which we’re raising gradually to 12 per cent starting from 1 July this year.

We’re improving aged care services through our $3.7 billion Living Longer. Living Better package.

Tonight marks another step in the Gillard Government’s plan to turn Grey into Gold and harness the wisdom of our senior Australians.

We will invest another $127 million to help senior Australians continue their active engagement in society and introduce a pilot program to help downsize their home without affecting their pension.

We’re also tackling entrenched disadvantage.

Committing $777 million to renew the National Partnership on Closing the Gap on Indigenous Health Outcomes.

And funding a new transitional National Partnership to continue vital homelessness services.
Building a stronger economy

So we are investing in Australia’s human capital, at the same time as we invest in our economic capital.
Nation-building infrastructure

We have already invested a massive $36 billion in roads, rail and ports.

Tonight we continue our ambitious program with a new $24 billion investment in the next wave of nation building infrastructure.

It’s critical to invest in both urban road and rail infrastructure.

Traffic congestion costs commuters time with their families and is estimated to cost our economy up to $20 billion a year by 2020 if not addressed.

That’s why we have committed more to urban public transport infrastructure than all our predecessors since Federation combined.

But there is more to be done.

So tonight we’re investing in transformational public transport projects like Brisbane’s Cross River Rail and Melbourne Metro.

These projects will change the way these cities work and allow them to grow into the future.

We’re also putting funds towards productivity-enhancing infrastructure in Sydney — the M4 extension and M5 duplication — and funds that will see the Missing Link between the F3-M2 constructed.

We will partner with the private sector and State Governments to deliver these critical projects as efficiently as possible.

We are also investing in the Gateway North Upgrade in Brisbane, Melbourne’s M80 Ring Road, and the South Road Upgrade in Adelaide.

And in our regions we are investing in the Swan Valley Bypass in WA, the Bruce Highway in Queensland, the Pacific Highway in NSW, the Midlands Highway in Tasmania and the Tiger Brennan Drive in the Northern Territory.

These investments will boost productivity, build capacity, improve safety, and relieve congestion, as well as improving the quality of life in our communities across the nation.

The National Broadband Network is putting Australia at the cutting edge of broadband technology and turbocharging productivity for decades to come.

Tonight we announce $12.9 million to connect more local councils to the NBN and provide training for small business and not-for-profits in 20 regional NBN rollout sites.
Supporting business to innovate

Speaker, the strength of our economy also depends on the ability of Australian businesses to win work at home and abroad.

We’re boosting innovation, productivity and competitiveness through our $1 billion Plan for Australian Jobs.

Investing over $500 million to create Industry Innovation Precincts around Australia.

And providing $378 million to stimulate private sector investment in entrepreneurial small to medium-sized enterprises.

Part of our plan to support and create jobs, building on our loss carry-back and instant asset write-off reforms for three million small businesses.
Meeting industry’s skills needs

Speaker, as well as having the infrastructure for the future, we must also ensure our economy has the skilled workers it needs.

Labor has increased annual funding for skills and training by almost 50 per cent.

Tonight we build on that record, with a $69 million Alternative Pathways to the Trades program, providing more flexible pathways for 4,000 Australians undertaking trade and technical qualifications.

We have created a $45 million Skills Connect Fund to deliver more effective workplace training for Australian businesses.
Workforce opportunity

Speaker, this Labor Government will do everything in its power to boost workforce participation and support transitions to employment.

Tonight we continue our support by allowing Newstart recipients to earn around $1,000 more a year before their payments are affected, the first increase in more than a decade.

We are also supporting parents in their efforts to balance work and family with around 280,000 parents already reaping the benefits of the nation’s first Paid Parental Leave scheme.

Our scheme has been in place for two years, is fully funded, affordable, sustainable, equitable, and supported by every member on this side of the House.
Stronger regions, resilient rural communities

Speaker, tonight we announce new reforms to build stronger regions and more resilient rural communities.

Over $330 million to support the historic Tasmanian forests agreement, and continuing our investment in Tasmanian economic growth and jobs.

Nearly $100 million for a new Farm Household Allowance to support farmers in hardship, part of the National Drought Program Reform.

And a new Farm Finance package to help farmers struggling with debt, providing concessional loans, more rural financial counsellors, and a better approach to debt mediation.

This comes on top of the almost $1 billion of investment in the Regional Development Australia Fund supporting the infrastructure needs and sustaining economic growth in Australia’s regions.

We also commit another $200 million for Reef Rescue to help farmers improve the quality of water entering the Great Barrier Reef.
Recovering from natural disasters

Speaker, Australians well know the devastation nature can unleash on our country, our communities, and our people — from floods, cyclones to bushfires.

Since 2010-11, Labor has paid $5.7 billion to the states to support disaster relief.

We expect to pay a further $6.2 billion over the five years from 2012-13, including $1.9 billion to help Queensland through the January floods.

Tonight we invest $40 million to rebuild local council infrastructure to a better and more resilient standard.
Strong foundations

And Speaker, as we build a stronger Australia for the future, we continue to honour those who laid the foundations of our country’s strength.

As the Centenary of ANZAC draws near, we honour the hard work and sacrifices of Australian service personnel and their families.

We build on our previous commitment to commemorating the Centenary of ANZAC investing a further $25 million and expanding veterans mental health services.

And this Budget funds the core defence capabilities required to protect Australia’s national security interests.
Royal Commission

We have also provided the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse with the resources required to go about its important work and ensure survivors have the support they need.
Enduring savings

Speaker, this Budget makes historic investments in our children’s education, in care for our most vulnerable citizens, and in building our nation.

But you only get to make the big investments if you are willing to make the savings to fund them.

To fund the critical investments over the next decade and to return the Budget to surplus, this Government has made $43 billion in savings over the forward estimates.

In addition to the savings already mentioned we are:

* improving the sustainability of the family payments system by extending indexation pauses; not proceeding with increases to FTB-A announced in the 2012-13 Budget and abolishing the Baby Bonus; while providing new support for families of newborns through FTB-A

* closing loopholes and protecting the corporate tax base to ensure multinationals and big businesses are not being given an unfair advantage

* better targeting superannuation tax concessions to improve the system’s fairness, sustainability and efficiency;
improving the sustainability of the health budget through phasing out the poorly-targeted Net Medical Expenses Tax Offset and making changes to the timing of Medicare Benefits Schedule indexation

* changing tobacco indexation to make it more consistent with consumers’ purchasing power

* continuing to grow overseas development assistance to 0.5 per cent of gross national income, but deferring the target date by one year from 2016-17 to 2017-18 and

* continuing to improve the responsiveness of income tax instalments for all large entities.

Choosing our future

Speaker, tonight this Labor Government has made the choice — a clear choice — to keep our economy strong and invest in our future.

We’ve chosen to give every child a world class education, and to make sure no Australian is left behind.

We’ve chosen a responsible path to surplus while supporting jobs and growth.

To make our economy stronger, our nation smarter and our society fairer.

Labor has a proud record of making visionary choices that strengthen this great nation.

The Age Pension…Medicare…Universal Superannuation…Paid Parental Leave…The National Broadband Network…Pricing Carbon.

And with the ground-breaking investments I have announced tonight, we build upon that proud Labor tradition.

This is the Australia that Labor Governments choose.

Because creating prosperity and spreading opportunity are the values that drive this Labor Government every single day.

I commend the Bill to the House.

The only thing we have to fear is….

Pleasant surprises will be scarce in Tuesday’s Federal budget.

But there will be opportunities and choices.

The government is offering better schools, through the Gonski reforms.

And urgently needed help, through DisabilityCare.

Tony Abbott says he is offering something the government can’t.

Competence.

A government, facing an election within months, can usually find something attractive to offer, in its budget bag.

The Gillard government can’t.

That’s because the brightest and the best of our public servants, those in the Federal Treasury, underestimated this financial year’s revenue collections, by something like $17 billion.

So despite the Treasurer’s promise of a surplus, that happy event is still some four years off, at best.

That’s the outlook, whether Wayne Swan or Joe Hockey is Treasurer, after the September 14 elections.

The government, now well behind in the polls, faces one, possibly overwhelming problem, in the coming elections.

That is crisis fatigue.

The global financial crisis – and its aftershocks – have been with us for some five years now.

And they are still rocking the economy.

With a persistently high dollar – and weak demand – many Australian companies are finding it hard to survive, let alone make a profit.

So employment, particularly in the manufacturing, retail and building sectors, is still shaky.

Yet more than 50,000 Australians found jobs last month and the nation’s unemployment rate even fell slightly.

Mr Swan says he has “accepted responsibility” for the political issues, that deferring the surplus has produced.

And he says protecting maintaining jobs will be his “priority” in this year’s budget.

But what, really, has gone wrong?

And what can we expect, now?

Two factors, overwhelmingly, combined to produce that revenue shortfall.

These were a sudden end to the mining boom and aftershocks from the global economic crisis.

Forecasting, in this climate, particularly with the $A at record heights, is little short of a nightmare.

However the $A has eased against the $US, since the Reserve Bank, cut interest rates, yet again, last week with that objective in sight.

And things can turn upwards, just as suddenly, in an economically restless times like ours, as they have fallen, over the past year.

It is easy to forget, too, that we are developing new strengths and creating new jobs, in unexpected places, like our service sector.

A new industry, educating university students, from neighboring countries, is just one example.

Let’s not forget either, that the debt carrying capacity of governments, in times like these, is much greater than the deficit scolds would have us believe.

If, of course, if they also start producing surpluses, when the good times roll again.

And they will.

It’s Work Choices all over again:Labor

The Federal government is warning that the Howard government’s Work Choices policies are barely disguised in the new workplace policy that Tony Abbott revealed yesterday.

Workplace Minister Bill Shorten said “absolutely anything” could be sanctioned under the plan.

Speaking in an ABC television interview, Mr Shorten said the mild appearance of the policy was merely a repetition of the deception the Liberal led Coalition had tried before the 2007 and 2010 elections.

Mr Shorten said Mr Abbott also wants to re-introduce Work Choice style individual contracts, to slash pay and conditions.

“That should send a shiver up the spine of every Australian worker,” Mr Shorten said.

“We should be alarmed at the lack of detail in this policy,” he added.

Employer reaction to the new policy has been lukewarm.

Business associations have described it as fair, but timid.

Mr Abbott, though, is probably pleased with these responses.

One of his lieutenants, Eric Abetz, has dismissed Mr Shorten’s remarks as “scaremongering.”

And Mr Abbott, himself, is well aware that public resentment, over Work Choices, was a significant factor in the Howard government’s defeat.

He hopes workplace issues can be side-stepped, in the lead up to the September 14 elections.

Rate cut pressures rise sharply

Falling sales, a sagging job market and weak business confidence have left the Reserve Bank board facing intense pressure to cut interest rates, when it meets tomorrow.

Especially as new data confirms that inflationary pressures in Australia are still subdued.

The Bureau of Statistics reported today that retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in March, after rising over the previous two months.

The ANZ job vacancy series confirmed that Australia’s job market is getting tighter.

And two separate studies showed that business is still far from confident.

The first, by the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, showed that business conditions either remained flat, or drifted further into negative territory, in the first three months of this year.

The chamber’s selling index, which measures market conditions, hit its lowest level in the survey’s 18 year history.

Its Chief Economist, Greg Evans, was blunt in his assessment both of what needs to happen and what must not.

“The strongly held view of Australian business is that the ongoing weakness in business trading conditions and retreating inflationary pressure justify the Reserve Bank delivering a further cut in the cash rate, he said.

“Businesses are also worried that any further increases in taxation burden announced in next week’s Federal Budget will undermine some early signs of recovery in business sentiment,” Mr Evans added.

The second survey, by Dun and Bradstreet, also produced grim warnings.

It concluded:” Australian businesses will keep cutting their spending this year, with expectations for capital investment, employment and new credit set to fall further.”

D&B also warned that: “The deteriorating outlook for the September quarter suggests that despite pockets of optimism, including low interest rates and recovering consumer confidence, a tough trading environment and tight cash flow are restricting business spending.”

The firm said, too,, that that the outlook for capital investment, reflected in its survey, had fallen to its lowest point in more than three years.

Slower growth seen in China, but…

China’s economic recovery is likely to be slower than expected.

This has important implications for Australia, as China is now our best customer.

A monthly assessment by the National Australia Bank notes that China’s national accounts for the March quarter came in well below expectations.

The bank says this suggests a more subdued economic recovery than previously thought.

However, in a separate statement later, the bank noted that the domestic business conditions affecting Australia’s top companies had settled.

“Business conditions for the ASX 300 were stable in March, the bank said.

But it noted that while the finance, business and property services sector are now considerably stronger, the retail and manufacturing sectors had weakened.

In its earlier statement the bank had noted that China’s real growth eased to an annual rate of 7.7 from 7.9 per cent in 2012.

“Consumption made the largest contribution to growth but it is too early to say an economic restructuring is underway,” the NAB said.

It said, too, that partial economic indicators for the March quarter had once again mixed.

However they did suggest some slowing in growth.

Production had also slowed, with the generation of electricity easing.

Retail sales had picked up in China but they are still relatively subdued, the bank said.

Exports accelerated, but there is some question over the meaning of the increase, it added.

Fixed investment had increased strongly, but risks from overcapacity have risen along with it.

However China’s inflation remains well within acceptable levels and that had reduced policy risk, the NAB said.

The bank revised its forecast for China’s growth down to 8 per cent this year, from its previous level of 8.25 per cent.

“But we maintain a downward bias for the outlook due to mounting downside risks,” the bank said.