Tuesday 16th August 2016 - 1:48 pm

Housing price growth “overstated” RBA

by Alan Thornhill

The Reserve Bank admitted today that estimates of recent housing price growth had been “overstated.”

 

The admission, made in the minutes of the meeting of the bank’s board meeting on   August 2 , is significant.

 

That’s because the bank has been relying on stronger than expected growth in the building and housing sectors to offset weaker performances in major resource export sectors, such as coal and iron ore.

 

However in today’s minutes the bank said:  “data on housing price growth from CoreLogic, which had been discussed at previous meetings, indicated that housing prices had increased very strongly in several cities in April and May.”

 

 

But it added:  “… new information had revealed that these growth rates were overstated.”

 

 

The bank said that had happened: “.. because of changes to CoreLogic’s methodology.”

 

 

And it added:  “data from other sources indicated that housing price growth had instead remained moderate in the June quarter.

 

 

“Other information showed that, while auction clearance rates had recently picked up a little in Sydney and Melbourne, the number of auctions was lower than in the preceding year and the average number of days that properties were on the market had increased.

 

“Housing credit growth had been little changed in recent months and remained below that of a year earlier.

 

“Rent inflation had declined to its lowest level since the mid 1990s and the rental vacancy rate had drifted higher to be close to its long-run average.”

 

However, the minutes also noted that net exports are expected to make a positive contribution to output growth over the forecast period, supported by the earlier exchange rate depreciation and ramp-up in LNG production.

 

“ In contrast, mining investment was expected to fall further,” the bank said.

 

It said there had been some signs that non-mining business investment was rising in some parts of the economy.

 

But, overall,  “it is still expected to remain subdued in the near term,” the bank’s notes said.


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