The big question, according to Kevin

Kevin Rudd says the “key question” for his colleagues on Monday will be who is best equipped to defeat Tony Abbott and prevent the harm his “prescription” would do to Australia.

Leadership:the basic facts

Kevin Rudd’s popularity would give him a chance of winning the Federal election due next year.

But opinion polls consistently show that Julia Gillard would lose, unless there is a big swing towards her, before August 2013.

These are the basic facts Labor politicians will face, when they meet in Canberra next Monday morning, to vote in a leadership poll, that the Prime Minister has just called.

Tony Abbott can hardly believe his luck.

Indeed, the Opposition Leader got so excited about all this that he even speculated, unwisely, about what he would do, if the Governor General, Quentin Bryce, should ask him to step in and settle Labor’s mess.

”If I was asked by the governor-general to form a government I would immediately advise an election, Mr Abbott said.

“We need a real change and the only way we can get real change is with a real election,” he added.

Sadly, for Mr Abbott, Ms Bryce won’t be putting that question to him.

The present Governor General remembers all too well, that one of her predecessors  did breach convention, by asking an Opposition Leader to do that.

That GG, Sir John Kerr, became so unpopular later that, after his death, he had to be buried late at night, to avoid a final demonstration.

Still, Mr Abbott’s excitement is understandable.

How could an Opposition Leader remain calm, when a Prime Minister declares that her predecessor – and current challenger -  had behaved in such  chaotic and dysfunctional ways, that his government had fallen into “a period of paralysis?”

Yet that is precisely what Julia Gillard said of Kevin Rudd, the man she replaced as Prime Minister almost two years ago.

Not that Mr Rudd, himself, had actually been silent, either.

He had declared, quite bluntly, that Ms Gillard could not win next year’s election.

“That is a deep belief,” he said.

“I believe it’s also a view shared right across the Australian community.”

How can things get better than that, for an Opposition leader?

A senior minister, Martin Ferguson, who declared his support for Mr Rudd, acknowledged that point, saying that character “assassinations” within the Labor Party must stop.

Mr Abbott, though, will probably escape censure, for his wishful thinking.

But that’s only because others are hogging the limelight, right now.

Lend wisely:Australian banks urged

The Reserve Bank is urging Australia’s home lenders to maintain “prudent” standards, when the good times return.

Luci Ellis, who heads the bank’s Financial Stability Department, delivered the warning, in a speech to home lenders in Sydney.

“If lenders were to ease lending standards beyond the point of prudence, they would not be doing anyone any favours,” Ms Ellis said.

“Their customers, the borrowers, would be overburdened by their debts.

“The firm themselves would face difficulties if loan defaults were to rise.

“And financial stability would be much harder to maintain.”

She said she understood the temptation.

“It must be hard to resist the disappointed customers who just want to borrow that bit extra to purchase their dream home,” Ms Ellis said.

“Especially when the loan officer is also trying to make budget on new loan approvals.”

“But in the experience of the United States, we have seen what can happen when lenders yield to that temptation,” Ms Ellis said.

She said she did not presently see any signs of lax lending in Australia.

“But there will be times – good times, when everything seems rosy – when lenders will find it hard to maintain the necessary prudence,” Ms Ellis said.

Average earnings surge

The average weekly earnings of Australians in full time work rose by a surprisingly high 4.7 per cent in the 12 months to the end of November. on seasonally adjusted figures.

However the 0.8 per cent rise, that the Bureau of Statistics also reported for the three months to the end of November, suggests that there was some easing in the pace of wage rises, towards the end of last year.

Even so, these relatively strong figures do reflect unexpected strength in the Australian economy.

That may well make the Reserve Bank reluctant, once again, to cut the nation’s marker interest rates when its board meets early next month, to reassess rates.

Although the Bureau has not yet produced State by State figures, for average weekly earnings, it is likely that the resource rich States of Western Australia and Queensland, once again, set the pace in the nation’s pay rises over most of last year.

It is likely, also, that longer hours, as well as higher rates, also contributed to the strong rises in average weekly earnings, reflected in the Bureau’s figures.

They show that, seasonally adjusted, average earnings for Australians, with full time jobs,were $1,388.10 a week, at the end of November.

I can beat Tony: Julia

Julia Gillard says she can beat Tony Abbott in the next Federal election.

Addressing reporters in Adelaide, the Prime Minister declared:”I believe that I can lead the Labor party to that victory, if the party is united.”

She said she expects Mr Rudd to return to the back benches, without further challenges, if he is defeated in a Labor leadership ballot at 10 am Monday.

But Kevin Rudd, her likely – but still undeclared – challenger in that contest, says Tony  Abbott  is on track to beat Julia Gillard in the next Federal election.

Conservative parties, led by Tony Abbott, have established a clear and persistent lead over the Gillard government in the nation’s opinion polls.

That led Mr Rudd to say: “I do not believe that Julia Gillard can lead the Australian Labor party to success in the next election,” Mr Rudd said.

“There is one overriding question for my caucus colleagues, and that is who is best placed to defeat Tony Abbott at the next election,” the former Foreign Minister said in Washington, as he quit, saying he had lost the confidence of the Prime Minister.

Julia Gillard, though, said the Rudd government had entered “a period of  paralysis” before she challenged, and defeated him, as Prime Minister, in 2010.

At her press conference in Adelaide, Ms Gillard paid tribute to the campaigning skills she said Mr Rudd had displayed, before becoming Prime Minister.

But she said “different skills” were needed in government, describing the Rudd government’s decision making as chaotic.

“My focus is on the future, not on the past,” Ms Gillard said.

But she dismissed Mr Rudd’s talk of “faceless men” running the Labor party as “incredibly insulting” to her Labor colleagues.

Rudd government had entered “paralysis:” Gillard

Julia Gillard, claimed today that the government of Kevin Rudd had entered “a period of paralysis” before she challenged and replaced him as Prime Minister in 2010.

“I determined that I would contest the primeministership in the circumstances where the government of Kevin Rudd had entered a period of paralysis,” Ms Gillard told reporters in Adelaide.

She described Mr Rudd as “a good campaigner” who had done well in the election in which made him Prime Minister.

“But government requires different skills,” Ms Gillard said, adding that Mr Rudd’s style of government had been chaotic.

Ms Gillard has called a Labor leadership ballot for 10 am Monday.  She said  she expects Kevin Rudd to challenge her in that contest.

PM calls leadership ballot

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, says she will call a Labor leadership ballot at 10 am Monday, when Federal parliament resumes.

She says “Australians are rightly sick of this” in a clear reference to persistent leadership speculation.

“I anticipate that Mr Rudd will also be a candidate,” Ms Gillard said.

She called upon Mr Rudd , if he did not succeed in the ballot, to return to the backbench and renounce further challenges.

Mr Rudd, though, said:”I do not believe that Julia Gillard can lead the Australian Labor party to success in the next election.”

Mr Rudd is now on his way back to Australia from Washington, where he resigned from his position of Foreign Minister.

Gillard calls presser

The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, has called a press conference for 9.30 am, Adelaide time.

She is expected to announce that there will be a leadership ballot, when Federal parliament resumes on Monday.