Wednesday 7th July 2010

Yes, those figures are good, but…

by Alan Thornhill

You are right to worry about the Australian economy, even though it has just chalked up another good set of figures.

That should not obscure a disturbing fact, that has appeared in the nation’s latest – apparently strong -trade figures.

The latest economic news is certainly good – but there’s a sobering item hidden in it.

Australia chalked up a b surplus of almost $1.7 billion, in its goods and services books in May, a much better result than anyone had predicted.

That was encouraging, especially as the the Reserve Bank also kept interest rates on hold, for a second successive month.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s exports rose by 6 per cent, on seasonally adjusted figures in May, while imports rose by just 4 per cent.

Any country would be proud of that result, especially in difficult times, like those the world is going through right now.

So some cautious optimism seems reasonable.

Especially as new car sales have also been high, recently.

However that strong rise in  Australia’s exports during May was boosted by one, very disturbing fact.

Gold exports rose by a massive 66 per cent during the month.

Investors traditionally see gold as a safe haven, in difficult times.

That has been reflected, very clearly, over the course of the the global economic crisis.

A month before the  crisis struck,  back in September 2007, gold was selling for a  moderate price of $US672 an ounce.

That price has now hit $US1,209 an ounce.

The nervousness this reflects, on world markets, was the main reason why the Reserve Bank kept Australia’s interest rates on hold, once again, this month.

Australian families are still spending cautiously, too.

The Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens, nailed that in his explanation of  his board’s decision to keep its target rate at 4.5 per cent.

“Consumption spending is recording a modest increase at present,” Mr Stevens said.

However he said, too, that Australian families are still “displaying a degree of caution.”

Mr Stevens noted, too, that house prices are rising more slowly now, than they did in the first half  of the year.

The Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, has warned that the world could be on the brink of another Depression.

That’s the big risk.

So what should we make of it all?

Well, the latest numbers do look good.

But the crisis isn’t over yet.


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  • [...] Yes, those figures are good but… [...]

Profile

Alan ThornhillAlan Thornhill is a parliamentary press gallery journalist. Private Briefing is updated daily with Australian personal finance news, analysis, and commentary.

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