Yes, those figures are good, but…
by Alan Thornhill
You are right to worry about the Australian economy, even though it has just chalked up another good set of figures.
That should not obscure a disturbing fact, that has appeared in the nation’s latest – apparently strong -trade figures.
The latest economic news is certainly good – but there’s a sobering item hidden in it.
Australia chalked up a b surplus of almost $1.7 billion, in its goods and services books in May, a much better result than anyone had predicted.
That was encouraging, especially as the the Reserve Bank also kept interest rates on hold, for a second successive month.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia’s exports rose by 6 per cent, on seasonally adjusted figures in May, while imports rose by just 4 per cent.
Any country would be proud of that result, especially in difficult times, like those the world is going through right now.
So some cautious optimism seems reasonable.
Especially as new car sales have also been high, recently.
However that strong rise in Australia’s exports during May was boosted by one, very disturbing fact.
Gold exports rose by a massive 66 per cent during the month.
Investors traditionally see gold as a safe haven, in difficult times.
That has been reflected, very clearly, over the course of the the global economic crisis.
A month before the crisis struck, back in September 2007, gold was selling for a moderate price of $US672 an ounce.
That price has now hit $US1,209 an ounce.
The nervousness this reflects, on world markets, was the main reason why the Reserve Bank kept Australia’s interest rates on hold, once again, this month.
Australian families are still spending cautiously, too.
The Reserve Bank Governor, Glenn Stevens, nailed that in his explanation of his board’s decision to keep its target rate at 4.5 per cent.
“Consumption spending is recording a modest increase at present,” Mr Stevens said.
However he said, too, that Australian families are still “displaying a degree of caution.”
Mr Stevens noted, too, that house prices are rising more slowly now, than they did in the first half of the year.
The Nobel prize winning economist, Paul Krugman, has warned that the world could be on the brink of another Depression.
That’s the big risk.
So what should we make of it all?
Well, the latest numbers do look good.
But the crisis isn’t over yet.
1 Comment
Profile
The Latest
9 February 2012
Doubts over Greek bail out weigh on European stock markets.
THE MARKETS
| All Ordinaries | 4357.100 | |||||||
| S&P 500 | 1353.31 | |||||||
| Aud To Usd | 1.0793 | |||||||
| Bhp Blt Fpo | 37.160 | |||||||
| Origin Ene Fpo | 13.670 | |||||||
| Nat. Bank Fpo | 23.000 | |||||||
| Fosters Fpo | 5.380 | |||||||
| Newcrest Fpo | 33.440 | |||||||
News to Use
- Private health insurance may soon be dearer for many
- Joe Hockey’s admission
- The Latest
- Higher rates? You should know tomorrow
- Australia bans internet tobacco ads
- Extra help for flood victims
- A missed chance: builders
- Rates on hold – for now
- Business expectations “bounce back”
- Extra help for flood victims
- Retail sales still trending upwards
- A tight Christmas in resource rich States
- Child care assistance:don’t miss out
- A Ruddy spectre still haunts PM
- Treasurer slaps the big banks
Topics
- Airlines (12)
- Banking (1296)
- Business (1420)
- Communications (32)
- Disaster (83)
- Economics (1437)
- Environment (73)
- Financial advice (1186)
- Health (45)
- Housing (397)
- Inflation (393)
- Insurance (60)
- Investment (1243)
- Markets (977)
- Media (86)
- Politics (1304)
- Regulation (574)
- Rural australia (85)
- Security (13)
- Social security (134)
- Superannuation (160)
- Tax (224)
- The latest (1)
- Trade (268)
- Uncategorized (264)
Archives
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
Recent Comments
- Liam Knuj on The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard’s, New Year’s Message
- Change is for the better,change is where your heart grows stronger on Family Assistance boost
- Harry on The Prime Minister, Julia Gillard’s, New Year’s Message
- Matthew on Rates likely to be steady
- Alan Thornhill on Carbon price:Treasury’s modelling




Alan Thornhill is a parliamentary press gallery journalist. Private Briefing is updated daily with Australian personal finance news, analysis, and commentary.
[...] Yes, those figures are good but… [...]