Retailers lure shoppers back

The lure of the January sales proved as strong as ever last month, with retail sales throughout Australia rising 1.2 per cent during the month,

This followed disappointing pre Christmas trade, with sales falling by 0.9 per cent in December.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics  reported that Australia’s department stores, clothing and shoe shops and grocery chains all increased their sales in January.

However the nation’s cafes, restaurants and take-away food stores saw their trade fall, during the holiday period.

The bureau also reported today that home building approvals fell by 7 per cent during January.

This followed removal of the Federal government’s stimulus subsidy, for first home buyers.

However the Housing Industry Association reported, earlier this week, that home sales, by Australia’s volume builders, rebounded by 9.5 per cent in January.

The association took this as a sign that upgraders and investors are re-entering the nation’s housing market.

The Reserve Bank board, which is meeting today to review Australia’s interest rates, will take all of  these figures into account.

It’s decision is to be announced at 2.30 this afternoon.

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Easing import prices might influence the Reserve Bank today

Although car and house sales have been strong, easing price pressures might save Australia from another interest rate rise today.

At this stage, though, that is still far from certain and we will all have to wait until 2.30 this afternoon before we will know for sure.

That’s when the Reserve Bank plans to release the results of a review of Australia’s interest rates, that its board will conduct early today.

Either way, figures that the Australian Bureau of Statistics has just published are sure to weigh heavily on the board’s deliberations.

These include the bureau’s balance of payments figures and business indicators for the December quarter.

Other figures, published by the Housing Industry Association, are also likely to be influential.

They showed a 9.5 per cent rebound in the sales of Australia’s large volume residential builders in January.

The association’s chief economist, Harley Dale, said a sustained improvement, of this kind, would suggest that a recovery, driven both  by people upgrading  – and investors – would be “achievable.’

The Federal government’s now discontinued subsidy for first home buyers has been driving the market for some time now.

The bureau’s balance of payments figures showed some mixed results.

They revealed, for example, that Australia’s current account deficit rose by $2.7 billion, or 19 per cent, in the quarter to almost $17.5 billion.

That is expected to detract 1.3 percentage points from Australia’s economic growth in the December quarter, on a  volume measure.

The bureau’s figures also showed that Australia’s net foreign was almost $648 billion at the end of December.

That represented a rise of 2 per cent over 2009.

Detailed figures, in the Statistician’s bulletin, also suggested that new vehicle imports had  been particularly strong during the quarter.

But one figure, in the Statistician’s bulletin, stood out.

A technical indicator, called the implicit price deflator, fell by 2.1 per cent in the December quarter.

This suggests that Australia’s imports, in the December quarter, will have a significant impact on other price pressures in the economy.

The strength of the $A, over most of the December quarter, helped there.

The Reserve Bank aims to keep Australia’s inflation in a 2-3 per cent range, over the course of the business cycle.

It looks at pressures, like these, very closely, when it reviews Australia’s interest rates, as it will do today.

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The words they chose

The self-deprecatory remarks that politicians  occasionally make are worth watching as they can be revealing.

Especially in election years, when voters have big choices to make.

Take Tony Abbott, for example. What are we to make of a man who is prepared to say, publicly, that his daughter, Frances, regards him as:”a lame, gay, churchy loser.”

Or of Kevin Rudd, who admits that he had been described, by a colleague, as:”a first class policy wonk.”

“I think it’s also fair to say – in terms of one of the other criticisms that’s made of yours truly – is that I’m probably not the world’s best communicator,” Rudd added, in his reply to a reporter who had questioned him at the weekend.

That tortured sentence, in itself,  illustrates his point.

Perhaps that’s why he also promised, at the weekend, that Australia’s schools would be stressing grammar, in future.  He, certainly, missed out on the clear speaking lessons,  all those years ago.

There was an echo of something deeper, too, in Rudd’s words at the weekend.

Just a few days earlier, he had described Peter Garrett as “a first class minister.”

But, on Friday, he finally demoted Garrett, over the home insulation disaster.

Rudd’s use of the words “first class” to describe himself, just one day later, invites reflection.

Gough Whitlam stormed to power on the two word slogan “It’s time.” That captured his political message, back in the early 1970s, perfectly.

Paul Keating’s words were also powerful, even though he sometimes damaged himself, by speaking recklessly.  “This is the recession we had to have was, of course, the prime example.

Back, though, to the challenger, Tony Abbott. He is quite comfortable with the nickname, “the mad monk,”  which he inevitably acquired, in the corridors of Parliament house.

His revelation, of his daughter’s biting word, certainly reflects a man of some  charm – and good humour. It also speaks, though, of a man who is not entirely sure that he is in tune with the tempo of the times.

That’s not an entirely unattractive picture, a fact reflected by the Opposition Leader’s advancement, over recent weeks, in the polls.

At this stage, though,  the coming choice appears, at least superficially, to be between a man who can’t speak clearly and a glib rival who hasn’t, so far, had all that much to say about what he would do, as Prime Minister.

Both could do better.

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