Australians to hit the shops soon:Access Economics

We’ll all  be out shopping again soon – this time with our own money.

The economists at  Access Economics, who have just published new retail forecasts, are confident about that.

Naturally they admit that our spending has been boosted over the past year by stimulus measures, such as tax breaks,  subsidies and low interest rates, which left extra money in many budgets.

However they say those times are now rapidly  passing , to be replaced by new growth, based on a stronger job market.

“Ultimately,” they say,”spending growth is regulated by income growth.”

Th Access economists say, too, that job growth is the “bedrock” of consumer spending.

Access noted that almost 200,000 jobs had been created in the five months to January.

It said, too, that about half of those new jobs had been full time.

“A greater sense of security makes for a more confident consumer,” Access said.

Its work is backed by other economic research.

The National Australia Bank, for example, is reporting that business confidence has returned to the surprisingly strong levels of last November.

That means business confidence is now back at levels not previously seen since May 2002.

And the ANZ bank said the number of job ads, appearing in Australia, had leapt by 19.2 per cent in February.

The ANZ said the nation is now “enjoying solid employment growth and reduced unemployment.”

However it warned that “a record 30.2 per cent” of all Australian jobs are now part time or casual.

The bank’s chief economist, Warren Hogan, said this represents “a significant degree of spare capacity or underemployment.”

Access has reservations, too.

It says, for example, that there are still “plenty of factors which will stop retail sales from being spectacular.”

These would include further interest rate rises, which would slow growth in house prices and ultimately affect consumer confidence.

These rate rises would eat directly into shoppers’ incomes, Access said.

Related stories:

1. Retailers face a “mixed” Christmas:Access
2. Access confident on retail trade – for now
3. Shop trade growth to slow:Access