Better times – probably – ahead

There may be better times ahead.

There are, certainly, signs of that in the latest national accounts.

Private investment, for example, rose by 3.5 per cent in the final three months of last year.

And Australia’s household spending rose by 0.7 per cent, in the same time.

But much of the force, that produced the nation’s 0.9 per cent economic growth in the quarter still came from the Federal government’s stimulus package.

That is reflected in the 10.2 per cent rise government investment, that appeared in the Statistician’s national accounts for the December quarter.

However, a sudden jump in the nation’s terms of trade, during the final three months of last year, must not be overlooked. either.

Australia suffered an 11.2 per cent fall in its terms of trade last year, in the wake of the global economic crisis.

However, that indicator showed a 2.9 per cent improvement in the December quarter.

China’s still strong demand for Australia’s iron ore and coal helped there.

So did growing demand from India.

The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, was also upbeat in his assessment of the bureau’s figures, noting that company profits, too, rose in the final three months of last year.

“After falling for four consecutive quarters, the gross operating surplus of private, non financial corporations rose by 4.8 per cent in the December quarter,” Mr Swan said.

“The private sector is looking increasingly well placed  to pick up the slack as the Government’s fiscal stimulus is progressively withdrawn over coming quarters,” the Treasurer added.

So – barring unforeseen events – the future is now starting to look at least a little brighter.

That, however, is a very substantial qualification.

The Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, says his country’s situation with debt is now so bad, that it is like being in a war.

That declaration, of course, is aimed primarily at his country’s own population.

Greeks have not been at all eager to embrace the restraints that are necessary, to put their country onto  a more sustainable path.

Global markets, though, are still very nervous – and the results of a major default are unpredictable.

And such events could well have major repercussions for Australia.

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