Reserve Bank chief names a date for recovery

The Reserve Bank chief, Glenn Stevens, is -almost – tipping a recovery by the end of this year.

Mr Stevens chose his words, very carefully, when he addressed the  Canadian Australian Chamber of Commerce in Sydney.

But the tone of his speech was significantly more optimistic than the minutes of the last Reserve Bank Board meeting, which were also published yesterday.

That meeting, of course, was held two weeks ago.

Mr Stevens said that Australia and Canada were both “well placed” to take part in “a renewed international expansion.”

“It is too soon to say that this is beginning yet,” he added.

But he said “developments over recent months are certainly consistent with the view that a recovery will get under way towards the end of the year.”

“That said,” Mr Stevens added,”most observers think that the early part of any new global expansion will be  chracterised by pretty slow growth.”

No-one should be too surprised by that final note of caution.

Bankers, always, like to temper their optimism.

However, Mr Stevens had mentioned strong grounds for confidence earlier in his speech.

He said both Australian and Canadian banks were  sound.

“Notwithstanding the global credit crisis, Canadian and Australian banks continue to be profitable,” he said.

Mr Stevens noted, too, that there has been a recovey over recent months in China, which is among Australia’s biggest customers.

“China’s industrial output fell for four months, between July and November,” he said.

But it had since “recovered all those losses.”

Mr Steven said a similar pattern had appeared in Korea.