Economists agree:the future is bleak

Economists can be annoying when they don’t agree.

And terrifying when they do.

Three surveys, just released, all point in the one direction.

They all suggest that Australia has some very hard times, indeed,  ahead.

Access Economics, for example, reports that there is little chance of any real improvement in Australia’s retail sales until the second half of next year.

The respected forecaster warns, particularly,  that  the nation’s shop-keepers now have a tough road ahead of them.

And it says house prices could fall by another 5 to 10 per cent this year, after average falls of 3 per cent last year.

Meanwhile the National Australia Bank says a survey it has just released suggests that Australia will, once again, record negative growth, over the first three months of this year.

That would put the nation officially into recession, as its economy contracted by 0.5 per cent over the final three months of 2008.

The NAB’s economists did have some good news, though, at least for people who are still paying off their homes.

They  said the Reserve Bank has probably not finished cutting rates yet, and would lower its marker rate, presently at 3.25 per cent, to just 2 per cent,  late this year.

There was more bad news, though, this time on the job market.

The ANZ Bank, which surveys job advertisements each month, is reporting that the level of job ads, in February this year, was 40 per cent below that of the same month last year.

They plunged 10.4 per cent in February alone.

The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, says Australia is still doing better than comparable countries, like Canada.

But there can be no doubt, now, that the global economic crisis will also hit Australia very hard, over the coming year.