Dec 4, 2008

Yes minister, but…

by Alan Thornhill

Wayne Swan says Australia’s economic growth is relatively “positive” – and he’s right about that.

But that’s not the full story.

The Statistician reported yesterday that  growth almost ground to a halt in the September quarter, when the Australian economy virtually stalled.

The nation chalked up just 0.1 per cent growth for the quarter – and a quite respectable 1.9 per cent over the year.

As the Treasurer says, that annual result looks quite good, especially when the economies of the  United States, Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan are all shrinking.

But timing is everything in economics, just as it is in comedy.

And the dominant fact is that the Australian economy almost stopped growing in the September quarter, before the full force of the global economic crisis hit the nation in mid-October.

Swan is not trying to deny that.

However he still says “we are better placed than other nations to face this global financial crisis.”

But he is not turning a blind eye to the peril.

“The slowing of our economy in the September quarter showed that we cannot completely resist the pull of international economic forces,” he says.

The glacial growth, recorded in that quarter, was not the only stark sign in the Statistician’s figures.

Indeed, the bureau recorded that Australia’s non farm GDP actually shrank by 0.3 per cent in that time.

But there were bright spots, too.

Australia did chalk up its first quarterly trade surplus, since the March quarter of 2002.

But that only happened, because iron ore, coal and other commodity prices hit new highs, just before the global crisis struck.

So so those excellent prices suddenly disappeared.


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Profile

Alan ThornhillAlan Thornhill is a parliamentary press gallery journalist. Private Briefing is updated daily with Australian personal finance news, analysis, and commentary.

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