» 2008 » November

The “blame game” ends today

Filed under: economics, financial advice, politics, regulation, tax — Alan Thornhill @ 6:26 am

The old “blame game” ends today.

Or, perhaps, tomorrow.

Either way, it won’t survive the weekend.

This looks like a very big claim.

But the Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, who is making it, is quietly confident.

He says that’s because the ground-work has been done very thoroughly, this time, in long, detailed meetings between Australia’s Federal and State officials.

The blame game reached its peak, between 1972 and 1975.

That’s when the Whitlam government sought to extend Federal control of how taxpayers’ money is spent, on items like roads, schools and hospitals, by initiating a string of tied grants.

These might stipulate, for example, that one grant must be spent on roads and another on pedestrian pathways.

Naturally enough, the Premiers hated them.

That’s because it restricted their spending, so tightly.

Mr Swan says that there are still something like 90 special grants, in present arrangements for Federal State funding.

But, he says, that will be cut to something like six, after the Treasurers meet in Canberra today, to put the finishing touches on the new arrangements.

After that, all that will be required is the signatures of Australia’s Premiers and Chief Ministers, to put the new arrangements into effect.

They also meet in Canberra, tomorrow.
As the Federal government is planning huge investments in infrastructure, to stave off a recession, their acquiesence shouldn’t be too hard to get.

Every Premier has his – or her – price.

And the Feds are buying, this time.

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Australian investors – including you – lose almost $100 million over the past year

Filed under: economics, financial advice, investment, markets, superannuation — Alan Thornhill @ 6:11 am

In raw dollar terms, Australians have seenÂ almost $100 million stripped from theÂ value of their managed investments,Â including superannuation, over the past year.

And – in terms of true value – the losses were substantially bigger.

That’s because the $A, itself, has also lost a lot of ground in that time.

The Statistician reported yesterday that the consolidated assets of the managed funds, which hold most of the money Australians invest, fell to $1,291,835 million, in the September quarter of this year.

That represented a fall $99,181 million, or 7.1 per cent over the year.

These figures cover the total consolidated assets of superannuation funds, public unit trusts, life insurance offices and all other managed funds.

On this measure, the nation’s superannuation funds did relatively well, suffering a loss of just 4.4 per cent over the year.

Life insurance offices were hit hardest, chalking up a 13.1 per cent loss in that time, while public unit trusts saw the value of their assets fall by11.4 per cent.

These figuresÂ are not the only ones used to measure the performance of Australia’s managed funds.

Another, broader, figure for the superannuation industry puts its losses over the year above the 6 per cent mark.

A graph, produced by the Bureau, shows that the biggest losses were incurred on money invested in shares.

That news won’t surprise anyone.

But it does add weight to the Federal government’s advice to Australia’s superannuation funds.

That was that they should invest more in property and less in shares.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has said that property investment better reflects the long term nature of superannuation than shares.

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Good news at last – on two fronts

Filed under: Uncategorized, banking, business, economics, financial advice, housing, investment, markets, politics, trade — Alan Thornhill @ 5:05 am

Pleasant surprises – in economics – have been rare over the past month.

So two, that appeared yesterday, will be particularly welcome.

The first was in the housing sector.

The Housing Industry Association reported that sales of new houses jumped by 6.7 per cent last month.

Victoria and Queensland were particularly strong.

Sales in both States leapt by more than 20 per cent.

The second surprise was in consumer confidence.

The Roy Morgan organisation reported that consumer confidence in Australia has jumped by 3.7 points.

This was confirmed in a poll taken last week.

Strong action,Â to boost the economy, helped in both cases.

Housing industryÂ economist Harley Dale said the Federal government’s decision to triple the first home owners’ grant had provided an important boost.

So, too, had the Reserve Bank’s decision to slash interest rates by 1 per cent.

And Gary Morgan noted that the jump in consumer confidence had followed the G20 meeting in Washington, at which world leaders promised to spend heavily, to prevent a global recession.

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Can deficits be good?

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, investment, markets, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 6:03 am

Deficit is still a dirty word in Australian politics.

And the opposition was delighted when the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, finally used it in parliament yesterday.

“Given that the last time a Federal Labor government went into a temporary deficit it lasted over six years, how many years will the Rudd government’s new “‘temporary deficit last?’” the new Opposition Leader, Malcolm Turnbull asked.

Rudd said, in reply, that Australia’s present circumstances do not require deficit.

But he had warned parliament, just minutes earlier, thatÂ a “temporary deficit” might be necessary in future, if “global growth continues to deteriorate.”

And that, bluntly, is all too possible.

Mr Rudd, himself, admitted that.

HeÂ had been reporting to parliament on his recent visit to an APEC leaders’ meeting in Peru.

“This morning I returned from APEC where my discussions with leaders from all around the region confirmed what we already knew,” he said.

“That the world economy is deteriorating rapidly.”

It was a grim message.

It raised the spectre of sharply rising unemployment in Australia.

And bitter experience suggests thatÂ spectre might well linger, long after the downturn, itself, has passed.

With that in mind, it would be wise to be realistic about a possible, indeed likely, deficit next financial year.

There is more at stake here than a few political reputations.

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National broadband:A clash of titans

Filed under: banking, economics, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 5:59 am

“It was a non-conforming bid.

“I would have thrown it out, without thinking about it.”

That’s how an old public servant, who wishes to remain anonymous, greeted Telstra’s bid to build Australia’s new national broadband network.

This is, indeed, an urgent project.

How much time do you waste each day, sitting around waiting for the present one to warm up?

That’s what your Grandad did, with his old Ford T.

The Federal government, though, has confirmed that it will consider Telstra’s bid, even though it is, indeed, non-conforming.

There are, of course, other contenders.

These include Optus, Acacia and Axia, Transact and the Tasmanian government.

Ordinarily, though, Telstra would have been the front runner.

It has the size, the technical knowledge and the clout not only to do the job, but to do it well.

The government, though, wants it to set up a separate entity, to run the new system.

It believes that would give others equal access in its use.

The bids are now in.

That part of the process has now closed.

The government has given an expert panel six weeks to consider them.

The panel will then have another two weeks to consider advice from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, before a decision is announced.

Separation is, certainly,Â important.

But Telstra is not willing to oblige.

It says it won’t be split.

So the dilemma persists.

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Banking watchdog “needed”

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, politics, regulation — Alan Thornhill @ 5:55 am

Australia’s banking system can be seen – effectively – as a cartel.

In a small country like Australia, even that has its advantages.

Bank failures are not common in this country.

But there are issues, too.

And a powerful parliamentary committee is recommending the appointment of a banking ombudsman to deal with them.

The recommendation, from the House of Representatives Committee on Economics, follows months of investigation.

The committee’s chairman, Craig Thomson, said 12 recommendations had emerged from this work.

The committee also recommended, for example, that the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission be given specific powers to address issues of concern in markets and regulated sectors, like banking.

“We want to see the ACCC on the job,” Mr Thomson said, “looking at competition all the time, not just during mergers and acquisitions.”

“We want to see them better able to stand up for consumers,” he added.

The committee also recommended:-

regulating unsolicited credit card limit increases
inclusion of credit cards in the account switching package
traansparencey of exit fees on mortgage products and
reform of Australia’s credit reporting system.

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Barack Obama sets his guidelines

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, investment, markets, media, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 5:35 am

Barack Obama is in no mood to waste time, in tackling the global economic crisis.

Although the President-elect will not take officeÂ until January, he has already named the team that will take on that task.

Its members include men, like Timothy F Geithner, who are already fully experienced in this kind of work.

Mr Geithner was deeply involved the the Bush administration’s weekend efforts to rescue the US banking giant, Citigroup.

Mr Obama said his team would begin work “today.”

He said too, that the Citibank crisis “has made it clear that we are facing an economic crisis of historic proportions.”

Mr Obama cited the sharp fall in new house purchases, a surge in unemployment claims and the likelihood of further job losses as evidence of the severe difficulties he will face, as US president.

But the troubled US car industry might well prove to be the most severe.

Mr Obama said the industry would not be allowed “simply toÂ vanish.”

But he warned that it could not expect a “blank cheque” from his government.

“While we can’t underestimate the challenges we face,” Mr Obama said, “we also cannot underestimate our capacity to overcome them.”

He said Americans had always been defined by a spirit of optimism and determination.

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Federal finances:big changes coming

Filed under: Uncategorized — Alan Thornhill @ 5:30 am

The Federal government is planning sweeping changes to the way major services, like education and hospitals, are financed in Australia.

It will put its proposals to Premiers and Chief Ministers this weekend.

The premiers will be well prepared for the Council of Australian Government meeting, that will be held inÂ on Saturday, after a similar meeting for Treasurers the day before.

There have already been extensive talks on the Rudd government’s plans.

The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, is describing those talks, which took place over the past few weeks as “quite constructive.”

He said the proposed reforms “range” widely.

“…not just health, not just education but disability, housing and so on…,”Â he said.

Mr Swan said Australia’s Federal, State and Territory governments all recognise that they face “great challenges” which “do require reform of Federal State relations.”

A “21st Century approach” is “particularly required” in health and education, Mr Swan said.

“I am now convinced that we are putting forward a framework to changes to make the Federation work more efficiently,” Mr Swan said.

He said, for example, that the Federal government would reduce the number of so-called “special purpose” grants that it makes to the States from “90 to just five.”

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Australia’s food basin is “drying up”

Filed under: Uncategorized — Alan Thornhill @ 5:15 am

Your correspondent crossed both the Murray and Murrumbidgee rivers at the weekend – and can report that they were flowing strongly, after the weekend rains.

Sadly, though, appearances can be – and in this case were – deceptive.

A new report, by Australia’s top scientific body, the CSIRO, tells a very different story.

It found, for example, that water resource development has caused “major changes” to the “flooding regimes” in the Murray Darling basin.

And it says the total flow, at the mouth of the Murray, has been reduced by 61 per cent as a result.

“The river now ceases to flow through the mouth 40 per cent of the time,” the report says.

Without the present over-use and abuse of the Murray Darling system, fresh water would flow through the mouth of the Murray 99 per cent of the time, the CSIRO said.

And drought has made the situation much worse.

The CSIRO noted that the lower end of the system had suffered severe droughts between 1997 and 2006.

And the catchment, in the lower parts of the river system, had been the lowest on record.

But the situation, since then, had deteriorated, as a result of continued drought.

The CSIRO also said that while the impacts of climate change are “still uncertain” further declines in the lower parts of the Murray Darling are still likely.

And that’s Australia’s food bowl, that those scientists are talking about.

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Need $1.5 million? Get a degree

Filed under: economics, financial advice, investment, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 8:11 am

Young Australians – with a university degree – can look forward to earningÂ $1.5 million more than those who leave school after graduating from Year 12.

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That’s not our conclusion.Â It is the finding of one of Australia’s top economic research bodies, the Â National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, which is generally known as NATSEM.

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NATSEM, which is supported by AMP, said this is after all costs, including lost wages, are taken into account.

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The central conclusion of its research is clear.

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“A university graduate has the potential to earn $1.5 million more over a lifetime compared to those whose highest qualification is Year 12,” its report says.

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But that was not all NATSEM found.

It reported, also, that Australia has some of the highest university fees in the world.

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It said the average amount Australian students spend on fees, to get a Bachelor degree, add up to $20,579.

Only US and Japanese students pay more.

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NATSEM warned, too, that the HECS debts, incurred while getting a tertiary education, typically take a long time to pay off.

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It said almost 6 per cent of Australian families are now paying off a HECS debt.

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And it said these debts take an average seven to eight years to pay out.

But that’s just the average.

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“It would take a typical male sole parent with two children 14 years to repay while a typical female sole parent with two children is unlikely to ever repay the debt,” NATSEM said.

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So will all that work, worry and debt really be worthwhile?

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One expert thinks so.

The AMP’s Financial Services Managing Director Craig Meller said that while HECS is a significant cost, the $1.5 million financial benefit that comes with holding a degree is the best investment a student can make.

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“Even after factoring in the cost of foregone earnings while studying, meeting the cost of living and the fact that on average university students are left with a HECS debt of $20,579, the economic returns over a lifetime for a university graduate are difficult to ignore,” Mr Meller said.

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Mr Meller, though, is clearly a wrinkly.

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“What’s interesting is that a generation known for instant gratification is clearly willing to forgo income while studying,”he said.

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That’s in recognition of the long-term financial gains, he added.

NATSEM’s study does show, though, that the Education Revolution, that the Federal government keep talking about,

Â is long overdue.

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APEC:Some still hope

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, investment, markets, politics, regulation, trade — Alan Thornhill @ 5:25 am

The early messages, emerging from the APEC leaders meeting in Lima are hardly encouraging.

It’s communique, for example, convinces very few with its assertion that the global economic crisis will be over in 18 months.

That was inserted, apparently, at the insistence of the Peruvian President Alan GARCIA Perez, who hosted the meeting.

While Australia’s Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, would not comment on that directly, afterwards, he is clearly sceptical.

“I feel that next year is going to be tougher and harder,” he said.

“…we’re in this for the long haul,” Mr Rudd said later.

The leaders who attended did accept, though, that free trade is the best path out of the present crisis.

They also instructed their trade ministers to meet next month, to pursue that objective through the now stalled Doha round of free trade talks.

That seems astonishing.

The Doha round has been bogged down, now, for a very long time.

So long that it is hard not to regard those talks as a sad joke.

Those talks, held under the banner of the World Trade Organisations, started in November 2001, in the Qatar city of Doha.

Their aim is to promote global trade, by lowering barriers, such as tariffs, subsidies and import quotas.

The talks, among 121 countries, have bogged down over agricultural protection, industrial tariffs and non-tariff barriers.

The most recent meeting,Â in July this year, broke down amid disagreements over proposed rules for agricultural trade.

But the ever-optimistic Kevin Rudd still sees room for hope.

“Where we got to in July was actually quite a narrow band of disagreement, involving a limited number of countries,” he said.

“What’s required now is a huge political heave to get it across the line.”

APEC leaders, backed by the global economic crisis, might be enough to give those talks theÂ necessary push.

But few would be prepared to bet on that, at this stage.

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Deficits:a shortage of truth

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, investment, markets, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 5:02 am

Budget deficits are dynamite in Australian politics.
So Australian politicians are particularly economical with the truth, when it comes to talking about them.

Labor MPs, for example, are simply not openly admitting that next year’s Federal budget might go into deficit.

The closest that the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, has come to doing so is his often repeated statement that the budget will be kept in surplus, over the course of the business cycle.

Yes, technically, that does admit the possibility of a deficit in 2008-09.

But it keeps the risk well hidden.

Meanwhile Opposition politicians have been trumpeting a new report, by Access Economics,Â which warns, flatly, that there might well be a deficitÂ in the new financial year.

Speaking on the Rudd government’s first birthday yesterday, Mr Turnbull saidÂ a budget deficit would be an admission that Mr Rudd could not maintain a strong economy and could not live within his means.

“Given the strong public finances Mr Rudd has inherited, and the growth forecasts we’re relying on for next year, Australians rightly regard the prospect of a deficit budget next year as a failure in economic management,” Mr Turnbull told reporters at the National Press club, in Canberra.

His criticism echoed another warning that the Coalition’s Senate Leader, Nick Minchin, had given earlier in the day.

The risk of a deficit, in 08-09, has arisen as a direct result of the global economic crisis.

And the Access report was quite blunt on that point.

It said Australians should not be scared of a deficit over the next year or so.

“The lessons of history are very clear,” Access said.

“Recessions lead to large increases in unemployment, which then linger.

“Recessions, therefore, are to be avoided if at all possible,” it added.

But the Coalition is not mentioning that.

Nor is it mentioning the sharp criticism the Access report made of the Howard government, saying that it had spent recklessly throughout the good times.

Politically, these were sins of omission.

Comments (1)

Could you use an extra $1.5 million? Then get a degree

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, investment, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 5:01 am

Young Australians - with a university degree - can look forward to earning  $1.5 million more

than those who leave school after graduating from Year 12.

That's not our conclusion.  It is the finding of one of Australia's top economic research bodies, the

National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, which is generally known as NATSEM.

NATSEM, which is supported by AMP, said this is after all costs, including lost wages,
are taken into account.
The central conclusion of its research is clear.
"A university graduate has the potential to earn $1.5 million more over a lifetime
compared to those whose highest qualification is Year 12," its report says.

But that was not all NATSEM found.
It reported, also, that Australia has some of the highest university fees in the world.
It said the average amount Australian students spend on fees, to get a
Bachelor degree, add up to $20,579.
Only US and Japanese students pay more.
NATSEM warned, too, that the HECS debts, incurred while getting a tertiary education,
typically take a long time to pay off.
It said almost 6 per cent of Australian families are now paying off a HECS debt.
And it said these debts take an average seven to eight years to pay out.
But that's just the average.
"It would take a typical male sole parent with two children 14 years to repay while a
typical female sole parent with two children is unlikely to ever repay the debt,"
NATSEM said.
So will all that work, worry and debt really be worthwhile?
One expert thinks so.
The AMP's Financial Services Managing Director Craig Meller said that while HECS is a
significant cost, the $1.5 million financial benefit that comes with holding a degree is
the best investment a student can make.

â€œEven after factoring in the cost of foregone earnings while studying, meeting the cost
of living and the fact that on average university students are left with a
HECS debt of $20,579, the economic returns over a lifetime for a university
graduate are difficult to ignore,â€ Mr Meller said.
Mr Meller, though, is clearly a wrinkly.
â€œWhatâ€™s interesting is that a generation known for instant gratification
is clearly willing to forgo income while studying," he said.
That's in recognition of the long-term financial gains, he added.
NATSEM's study does show, though, that the Education Revolution, that the Federal government
keeps talking about, is long overdue.

Comments (1)

Rivers of gold run dry

Filed under: banking, business, economics, financial advice, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 6:43 am

The Federal government’s “rivers of gold” are drying up.

Access Economics is warning that the Rudd government is facing the bleak prospect of deficit financing, as it enters its second year in office.

That is even without any new policies.

And new policies may well will be essential, to hold off the worst effects of the global economic crisis.

Access says the Rudd government will have to manage without the big flows of company tax that Federal governments have been enjoying, too much,Â over recent years.

The government is still expecting a small surplus this financial year, even though its $10.4 billion stimulus package – andÂ other steps taken to tackle the crisis – have already reduced the $21.7 surplus it had planned to a distant memory.

But the Federal Finance Minister, Linsday Tanner, in particular has been reluctant to admit the risk of the budget might slip into deficit, in future years.

If Access is right, though, that is already inevitable.

“We pissed the good years up against the wall in the usual ill-disciplined blow-out of tax cuts and big spending during the boom,” Access said in itsÂ the latest Budget Monitor which itÂ released today.

“Governments have enjoyed – and wasted – the inflated corporate tax takes of the past decade,” the economists added.

They warned, too, that the government might have to cut payments to pensioners and families if it wants to carry through plans to reform the health system, education and infrastructure.

Comments (1)

Obama working on a two year stimulus plan

Filed under: economics, financial advice, politics — Alan Thornhill @ 6:10 am

The incoming US president, Barack Obama, is working on an ambitious two-year plan to stimulate the sagging US economy.

Insiders say the spending – and tax cuts – he is now contemplating will be bigger than anything he mentioned during his recent election campaign.

Mr Obama, himself, said it would be “a plan big enough to meet the challenges we face.”

He expects to sign off on the package soon after he takes office on January 20.

“We now risk falling into a deflationary spiral that could increase our massive debt even further,”Â he said in a video address, which is available on YouTube.

Mr Obama revealed that he is planning a two year economic stimulus package, concentrating on “green” jobs and public works.

“We’ll be working on the details in the weeks ahead,” Mr Obama said.

“But it will be a two-year nation-wide effort to jump start job creation in America and lay the foundation for a strong and growing economy.

“We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernising schools that are failing our children and building wind farms and solar panels, fuel-efficient cars and the alternative energy technologies that canÂ free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead.”

But he warned, too, that there “are no quick fixes” to the crisis the US now faces.

“And it’s likely to get worse before it gets better,” he added.

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November 28, 2008

The “blame game” ends today

Australian investors – including you – lose almost $100 million over the past year

Good news at last – on two fronts

November 27, 2008

Can deficits be good?

National broadband:A clash of titans

Banking watchdog “needed”

November 26, 2008

Barack Obama sets his guidelines

Federal finances:big changes coming

Australia’s food basin is “drying up”

November 25, 2008

Need $1.5 million? Get a degree

APEC:Some still hope

Deficits:a shortage of truth

Could you use an extra $1.5 million? Then get a degree

November 24, 2008

Rivers of gold run dry

Obama working on a two year stimulus plan

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