Brendan Nelson’s leadership of the Liberal party will be tested in the Gippsland by-election tomorrow.

If Labor should win the seat, for the first time ever, Dr Nelson’s hold on his job will be severely weakened.

And he has predicted, himself, that Labor could win.

This might be seen as Dr Nelson’s medical training at work.

Doctors have an interest in exaggerating a patient’s illness.

So if the patient dies, it wasn’t the doctor’s fault.

But if the patient recovers, that is a glorious victory for the doctor.

As parliament rose last night for its long winter break, it was clear that Dr Nelson had made some progress with voters.

He had offered the public some relief from the global fuel crisis, by offering to cut the Federal government’s fuel levy by 5 cents a litre.

At least one voter, in the electorate, was attracted by that.

She told ABC radio that, with four children, including a disabled son, she was heavily dependent on her car.

And the government had “done nothing” to cut petrol prices, this voter said.

She certainly won’t be alone.

The by-election has been precipitated by the resignation of the sitting National Party member, Peter McGauran.

The Nationals, the successors to the old Country Party, have held the seat since 1922.

A Queensland National, Barnaby Joyce, was more optimistic than Dr Nelson.

“I think we’ll win it,” Senator Joyce said.

The Labor party’s, probably slim, chance of victory rests, overwhelmingly, on coal workers in the electorate.