Growth:Access backs Stevens

Access Economics is backing Glenn Stevens’ prediction of good global growth, around trend levels, this year.

It says its assessment is that the world will post another year of good growth in 2008 as Asia’s momentum offsets US weakness.

That, broadly, is the view the RBA chief also took, in a speech he delivered in London last Friday.

But, perhaps wisely, Access is hedging its bets.

“The risks are rising fast,” the forecaster says in the latest issue of its Business Outlook, which it published today.

“We don’t forecast a US recession, but one is quite possible.” it adds.

“And both Japan and Europe have the wobbles.”

Access is advising its clients to keep watching commodity prices.

“…they will stumble if the globe does too,” it says.

Access says any weakness in global commodity prices might well be the first indicator of a potential problems.

And while Access still expects global growth to be strong, on balance, this year, it is also predicting some softening next year.

It warns, also, that Australia is presently loaded with “inflation risk.”