The West – going West?

West Australians have been celebrating the State’s boom in great style, but the question now is can it last?

The spectre of a US recession is making that question urgent.

WA doesn’t sell much directly to the United States, but its big customers, Japan and China certainly do.

And there’s the rub.

There’s been hopeful talk suggesting that growing domestic demand, in both of these countries might fill any shortfalls they might face in US orders.

But that’s just what it is, at this stage. Talk. No more than that.

The West Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry reports that spending on hospitality and services in the State rose by a massive 6.7 per cent in November.

To put it another way, West Australians spent an extra $18.5 million on those items that month.

That is, certainly, starting the party season in great style.

And why not? West Australians have a lot to celebrate, right now.

At 3.4 per cent, their unemployment rate, is significantly below the national average of 4.5 per cent.

The State’s total employment rose by 3.1 per cent over the year.

As other Australians decided to seek their fortunes by going West, in the June quarter of last year, the State chalked up a net gain of 1,355 from net interstate migration.

But that was swamped by the 5.642 migrants who arrived from other countries in the same time.

That was beginning to look like those of the old goldrush days, when the Golden Mile, between Kalgoorlie and Boulder, shone like a beacon to the world’s young and ambitious.

Over the same brief period, the State’s net gain, from overseas migration, was no less than 5,642.

Once again, too, they came for the money.

Average weekly earnings in the State rose by 5.7 per cent in the 12 months to the end of August and that, once again, was significantly above the national average of 4.9 per cent.

Established house prices rose by a relatively modest 2.8 per cent in Perth, over the 12 months year. Who, though, would be surprised at that after they had risen by a almost 50 per cent, in the previous 12 months.

The State’s exports, particularly in times of drought, are overwhelmingly mineral based. And, despite the boom, it’s economy is still relatively thin.

All this means that any significant cut in still booming iron ore orders, from Japan and China, could bring the State’s boom to a very sharp halt.