• Emissions trading:Explaining the costs
• Tough times? Head for the coffee shop
• The stimulus saved us:PM
• Investment boom possible:Economists
• Reserve Bank springs a surprise
• Subsidised child care still expensive – and needy kids miss out
• Corporate crooks to face big fines – and long jail sentences
• Why spending cuts could hit you soon
• We won’t take more:Treasurer
• Cut fuel bills? Yes you can
• “Why I’m pushing productivity” PM
• Will we see a financial hub – or a drubbing?
• Who will pay for climate change?
• Why neglecting your super isn’t a super idea

The latest

The Dow Jones index sinks below 10,000, falling 103.84 points to 9,908.39

The $A was fetching 86.82 US cents early today

Tony Abbott planning a six month paid parental leave scheme

Federal Parliament to continue debate the government’s emissions trading scheme today

Federal government withdrawing bank and State guarantees as economy stabilises

Australia wins $70 billion coal sale to China

Statistics; January’s unemployment figures Thursday

Many more stories, see the separate categories=================>

Sometimes the best explanations come from the most unexpected sources.

That happened in Federal parliament, when Malcolm Turnbull explained the proposed Emissions Trading scheme.

The proposed scheme is complex – and even the Federal government, which is sponsoring it admits it is having trouble explaining it.

The Former Opposition Leader, though, displayed his forensic skills brilliantly,
when he compared the proposed ETS – with the rival plan, that his successor, Tony Abbott, is offering.

Mr Turnbull’s speech is displayed in full on the ABC’s website www.abc.net.au, in The Drum section.

It’s a good read,  especially for those who  are still confused over what should be done about climate change.

Mr Turnbull says, for example, the government’s scheme, as amended, is now very similar to the one John Howard proposed, shortly before his government was defeated.

Surprisingly, perhaps, Turnbull also concludes that the ETS will be cheaper, in the years ahead, than Tony Abbott’s alternative.

He says the best policy, to cut carbon emissions, must have a price signal.

Mr Turnbull declared his belief “as a Liberal” that market forces would deliver “the lowest cost” and “most effective” outcomes.

He warned, too,  that alternatives, which rely on direct regulation and subsidies “would be more costly to the economy.”

Mr Turnbull quoted from a letter, that he had received from a senior public servant, to emphasise that point.

It said:”While I worked in government for a significant part of my life, I am horrified by the prospect of a ‘fund’ from which public servants give handouts to grow trees.

“It just does not work.”

Summing up, Mr Turnbull said:”This legislation is the only policy which can credibly enable us to meet our commitment to a 5 per cent cut in emissions by 2020.”

He said the proposed ETS would also have the flexibility to enable Australia to move to bigger cuts, when they are warranted.

Western civilisation owes a huge debt to ancient Greece.

But it’s the level of debt that modern Greece has chalked up,that is worrying financial markets at present.

Greece is finding it difficult to meet its obligations, in the wake of the global financial crisis.

And international markets are unlikely to stabilise, until that situation is addressed.

Sharp falls, on world stock markets last week showed that very clearly.

So a meeting to be held in Europe on Thursday, their time, will be watched very closely.

The main actors at it will be Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank and the finance ministers of the EU’s financially strongest nations, France and Germany.

The world is looking to France and Germany to rescue their Southern neighbour.

Allowing Greece to default on its debts is unthinkable.

Bank collapses are bad enough. Defaults on the sovereign debt of nations, are much worse.  They could send financial markets into outright panic.

That’s why it will not be allowed to happen.

There is no doubt, though, that the EU, itself, will be tested at that meeting.

The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, carefully avoided direct mention of this danger at the weekend.

He merely warned Australians not to be complacent about economic recovery.

But he was confident enough to announce that the Federal government will withdrawing the bank and State funding guarantees that it put in place, after the global economic crisis struck.

Mr Swan also welcomed the stronger domestic growth forecasts that the Reserve Bank released on Friday.

He described the withdrawal of the guarantees as both “very significant” and “market sensitive.”

“I’m pleased to mark a very significant milestone in Australia’s recovery from the worst global recession in over 75 years,” the Treasurer said.

But he added a rider.

“I want to be very clear to all Australians that today’s announcement does not impact on the Financial Claims Scheme.

“This scheme will continue giving over 16 million Australians certainty over their deposits of up to $1 million, with that cap to be reviewed in October 2011.

“This deposit guarantee provides automatic free coverage for an estimated 99.5 per cent of all deposits.  It’s very important to distinguish that from the removal of the wholesale funding guarantee and the large deposit guarantee.

“Over the past 18 months, our financial system has proved itself one of the strongest in the world, thanks in large part to sound regulation and first-class supervision,” Mr Swan said.

“But we have been by no means immune from the effects of the global financial crisis,” he added.
More at www.treasurer.gov.au

Australians look for a strong coffee when times get tough.

And perhaps a light meal, as well.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has confirmed this, noting that the nation’s cafes, restaurants and take away food stores have continued to record strong trend growth.

In fact, their trade has now increased by at least 1 per cent a month, in trend terms, over the past 12 months.

The bureau also noted that, on raw figures, turnover in Australia’s shops increased by 24.5 per cent in December, as Australians bought their Christmas presents.

After seasonal adjustment, though, retail sales in December actually fell by 0.7 per cent.

But that figure did no discourage the Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan.

He told Parliament that, in value terms, retail sales in December 2009 were 2.1 per cent higher than those of the same month, in the previous year.

Mr Swan also said that retail sales in the December quarter were 1.1 per cent higher than those of the September quarter.

He said, too, that building approval figures, that the Bureau has just released, also reflect the relatively strong performance of the Australian economy.

These show that total home building approvals rose by 2.2 per cent in December to a level 53.3 per cent higher than that of December 2008.

The government’s subsidy for first home buyers undoubtedly contributed to that result.

The Housing Industry Association was also pleased, saying building approvals are “moving in the right direction.”

The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd strongly defended his government’s economic stimulus plan yesterday, on the first anniversary of its launch.

Speaking in Federal parliament, Mr Rudd said:”The nation-building economic stimulus plan is delivering on what it promised.

“Jobs for today, and infrastructure for tomorrow.”

The Prime Minister also said the $42 billion plan “represents the largest Commonwealth infrastructure project in our nation’s history.”

He said:”The government introduced the plan with two key goals:-

•    to protect Australia from the worst global recession in three-quarters of a century, and
•    to build Australia’s future with investment in long-term infrastructure.
“At the time, I said that this plan would support jobs and small businesses in the short term and build schools, energy efficient housing and transport,” Mr Rudd said.

He admitted that the Australian economy had also received support from the Reserve Bank’s emergency low interest rates ,over the past year.

Mr Rudd acknowledged, too, that Australia  had  been helped, too,  by strong  growth in the Chinese economy.

” But let me be absolutely clear,” he added.

“The difference between the strengthening growth in the Australian economy today—and being engulfed by the global recession like eight out of our top ten trading partners—is the government’s economic stimulus strategy.”

An “all out” investment boom is possible in Australia over the next two years, according to Access Economics.

These now privatised former Treasury economists reached this conclusion – with some reservations – just a few weeks after Perth’s proud home town newspaper, The West Australian, published similar projections.

Access said the giant Gorgon LNG project – and government infrastructure projects – could boost Australia’s investment spending this year by more than $69 billion. However the private forecaster warned that even a strong investment recovery would still be a “patchwork” affair.

The usually cautious economists at Access predicted boldly that any boom would be dominated by mining projects in Western Australia.

In the latest edition of their regular publication Investment Monitor, they say “Western Australia remains the centre of the action for growth in investment at present.”

Access says this State has more than twice the value of definite investment projects under way than its nearest rival, Queensland.

“…and it continues to extend that margin,” Access added.

Its economists say that there are currently 145 projects, worth some $161 billion, awaiting final approval this year.

“Indeed, all of these projects are proposed to commence in 2010,” Access added.

Most are mining projects.

“The decisions on those project will mark the difference between investment stabilising at a high level and a further move up to an all out investment boom over the next couple of years,” the forecaster said.

But it added a caution.

“That said, it would be a patchwork boom rather than an even handed one.

“The high $A and relatively weak global demand is still wreaking havoc in some sectors.”

Access said these include manufacturing, outside the resource sector, international tourism and the construction of new office blocks.

The Federal government expects the Reserve Bank’s decision to keep interest rates on hold will help to sustain Australia’s economic recovery.

The Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, explained why, at question time shortly after Parliament resumed, for its autumn sittings.

“Today’s decision means that a families with a $300,000 mortgage are still paying around $600 a month less than they were paying 18 months ago,” Mr Swan said.

The Reserve Bank’s target rate was still 7.25 per back then. It is just 3.75 per cent now.

These rates have a big influence on home loan interest rates.

And the extra cash, now in the monthly budgets of several million young to middle aged families, packs a wallop, at suburban supermarkets and in local businesses throughout the country.

There was, of course, never any question of the Reserve Bank now returning to anything like the target rate, that it had set, back then.

At most, a rate rise of 25 – or perhaps even 50 – basis points might have been expected.

Even that, though, would have led to another round of rises in home loan interest rates.

And that would have further eroded the spending power of many Australian families.

The first three rate rises, that the Reserve Bank announced late last year, have already had that effect.

And the Reserve Bank board learnt, just three hours before it announced its decision, that business confidence slumped late last year, after the last of those three rate rises was announced.

The board’s decision, though, should be seen as a reprieve, rather than a firm declaration that Australia’s interest rates won’t rise anytime soon.

They are still well below levels the bank regards as normal.

What happens now?

The Treasurer spelt out the government’s plans as he continued his answer.

“…we are committed to a long-term strategy here,” he said.

Mr Swan said the government would do  everything it could to expand the productive capacity of the economy.

It would also do everything in its power to lessen inflationary pressures.

“We on this side of the House are determined to do everything we can to see sustainable growth which lifts living standards up and we are determined to make the necessary investments for the future,” Mr Swan said.

The Reserve Bank surprised many today, by deciding to keep its target interest rate on hold at 3.75 per cent.

The Bank’s Governor Glenn Stevens, noted that the global economy is growing, and said world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011.

But he added:”The expansion is still likely to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity.”

Mr Stevens did say that in Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, recovery has been much quicker so far.

But he noted that the Chinese authorities are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economy.

“Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago,
Mr Stevens said.

” Credit conditions nonetheless remain difficult in the major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness.

“Concerns regarding some sovereigns have increased.”

He said  economic conditions in Australia had  been stronger than expected, after a mild downturn a year ago.

But he added:” The effects of the fiscal stimulus on consumer demand have now faded.

However Mr Stevens added”… household finances are being supported by strong labour market outcomes and a recovery in net worth.

“Public infrastructure spending is now boosting demand, as is an upturn in housing construction.

“Investment in the resources sector is strong.

“The rate of unemployment appears to have peaked at a much lower level than earlier expected.”

Mr Stevens said tha has, as expected, inflation had declined in underlying terms from its peak in 2008.

That had been  helped by several factors.

These had included the fall in commodity prices at the end of 2008, a noticeable slowing in private?sector labour costs during 2009, the recent rise in the exchange rate and a period of slower growth in demand.

“CPI inflation has risen somewhat recently as temporary factors that had been holding it down are now abating.

” Inflation is expected to be consistent with the target in 2010, Mr Stevens said.

Credit for housing has been expanding at a solid pace, and dwelling prices have risen significantly over the past year, the Reserve Bank chief said.

“Business credit, in contrast, has continued to fall, as companies have sought to reduce leverage, and lenders have imposed tighter lending standards and in some cases sought to scale back their balance sheets.,” he added.

The decline in credit has been concentrated among large firms, which generally have had good access to equity capital and, more recently, to debt markets; credit conditions remain difficult for many smaller businesses.

With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board had moved at recent meetings to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker.

Lenders have generally raised rates a little more than the cash rate over recent months and most loan rates have risen by close to a percentage point.

“Since information about the early impact of those changes is still limited, the Board judged it appropriate to hold a steady setting of monetary policy for the time being,” Mr Stevens said.

Interest rates to most borrowers nonetheless remain lower than average, he added.

” If economic conditions evolve broadly as expected, the Board considers it likely that monetary policy will, over time, need to be adjusted further in order to ensure that inflation remains consistent with the target over the medium term,” Mr Stevens said.

Two factors make another rate rise today all but inevitable.

The first is that Australia’s underlying inflation rate – of 3.6 per cent – is already above the Reserve Bank’s target range.

The second is that the nation is now emerging from the slump that followed the global economic crisis.

As Chris Richardson, the director of Access Economics notes, this is not a comfortable place to be at the start of an upturn.

A  former Treasury official, himself, Richardson is well place to know how Australia’s “official family” thinks on these matters.

The Federal Treasury and the Reserve Bank are both members of that “family.”

And they have a habit of thinking alike, when assessing the current state of the economy.

However that kind of thinking is far from universal.

Employer organisations, for example, are warning that the Reserve Bank could stifle Australia’s still week recovery if it raises interest rates too quickly.

And home buyers aren’t eager to see Australia’s  interest rates rise too quickly from their recent record lows.

Accees warns, though, that despite three recent rate rises, the upward movement in rates still has further to go.

But it added a caution.

“That said, there is no great rush to raise rates,” Access said.

“In the next six months underlying inflation will head down, rather than up,”it added.

At 2.30pm today, we will all know if the Reserve Bank’s board agrees with that assessment.

Thousands of Australian families struggle to meet their child care bills, with mid level fees, at government approved centres, reaching $285 a week.

That national figure, from a report by the Productivity Commission, is for full time care, of 50 hours a week.

Even the  fees, for approved family day care are not much lower, at a mid level of $267 a week.

As child care fees are commercial charges and the amount of time children spending in care, weekly expenses do vary widely.

But Canberra families, which face the nation’s highest fees, must find more than $300 a week for full time child care, either at their local centres or in appproved family care.

The report, by the Productivity Commission, also exposes significant inequities in the way government child care subsidies are spent.

It shows, for example, that many of the Australian children who most need help miss out on their fair share of subsidised child care places.

These include kids with a disability, those living in remote areas, Aboriginal children and children of migrant families, who don’t speak English well, if at all.

The report says children in all of these groups get fewer places, in subsidised child care, than those from the broader community.

But poor kids don’t.

The Commission, says children from low income families get child care places at much the same rate as the broader community.

Child care subsidies, in various forms, are a big – and rapidly rising – expense for Australian governments.

The Commission reports that Federal, State and Territory governments spent $4.5 billion on these subsidies in 2008-09.

In real terms, that was a 51 per cent rise over their spending in the previous 12 months.

The Australian notion of a fair go suggests that big ticket government spending, like this, should be spread evenly throughout the community.

However the report says only 13.2 per cent of  children from non-English speaking backgrounds benefit from subsidised child care, against 18.8 per cent of the broader community.

The participation rate for Aboriginal children was just 2.3 per cent, although they make up 4.4 per cent of the population.

The Commission also said:”Children aged 0-12 years with a disability had a lower participation in child care (3.2 per cent) compared with their representation in the community (7.7 per cent).

And only 1 per cent of Australian kids, living in remote areas, get subsidised child care, even though 3 per cent of the nation’s children live in remote areas.

Australian investors will be better protected against corporate crime, under tough new laws that the Federal government will introduce later this year.

The Financial Services Minister, Chris Bowen, who made the announcement, said corporate crooks will face big fines and longer jail sentences, under new laws.

He said they would  will be easier to catch, too,  because corporate crime prosecutors will get new powers to listen to their private telephone conversations and intercept their emails.

Mr Bowen was blunt, when he was asked if corporate crime is  a serious problem in Australia.

He said the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which prosecutes this kind of crime, had alerted him to a “noticeable trend.”

That was “…often an increase in a firm share price before market sensitive announcements are made.”

Mr Bowen, though, refused to comment directly on high profile cases, that are still before Australian courts.

He said the new penalties, which include up to ten years’ jail would be among the toughest in the world.

Mr Bowen said, too, that they would compare well with those in the United States.

He also said the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, which prosecutes these offenders, would be given access to telephone and other electronic interception powers.

“These changes will ensure that ASIC is properly equipped to investigate and prosecute serious corporate misconduct, ” Mr Bowen said.

This kind of misconduct had the potential to cause significant harm to the economy and investors, Mr Bowen added.

At present, fines for individuals, who indulge in this kind of cheating, are limited to $22,000.

That will rise to eikther $500,000, or three times the amount at stake in the particular crime.

“Whichever is the greater,” Mr Bowen said.

The new maximum for corporate offenders will be $5 million, or three times the amount at stake in the particular crime.

A penalty of 10 per cent of the offending corporation’s annual turnover will also be available.

“To ensure compliance and increase deterrence, the maximum term of imprisonment for these offences will be increased from five to 10 years,” Mr Bowen said.

At present, the Telecommunications (Interception and Access) Act restricts the use of telephone and other interception techniques to investigations of “serious offences.”

Mr Bowen said that law would be changed, to class market crimes and insider trading as “serious offences.

“This will enable ASIC to obtain direct evident of inside information, such as the content of conversations, rather than simply relying on circumstantial evidence, such as the mere existence of suspect telephone conversations, Mr Bowen said.

He said the government would bring the new laws into effect later this year.

The price of innocent summer pleasures have been rising almost as fast as capital city temperatures.

Fruit prices, for example, leapt by 15.9 per cent, over the final three months of last year, as bad weather hit many orchards, leaving shops short of fruit.

And that traditional summer break at the beach was more expensive than ever, with the price of domestic holiday travel and accommodation jumping 6.6 per cent, in the same time.

Even staying home, feeling sorry for yourself was expensive, too, with  beer prices rising  2.1 per cent, in the three months leading up to Christmas.

There were offsets, though, with petrol prices falling 2.8 per cent, as the Aussie dollar put on a little muscle.

Computer prices fell by 7.1 per cent and the price of pharmaceuticals dropped by 5.3 per cent.

Overall, though, the Statistician reports, Australia’s prices rose by 0.5 per cent in the December quarter.

Following the  1 per cent rise chalked up in the September quarter – and an earlier rise of 0.5 per cent – that took Australia’s annual inflation rate to 2.1 per cent.

Sadly, for home buyers though, Australia’s underlying inflation rate was even higher at 3.6 per cent.

The Reserve Bank looks at these “underlying” rates, not the raw CPI figures, when it reviews Australia’s interest rates, as it will next Tuesday.

And as that rate is still above the 3 per cent that the Reserve Bank is prepared to tolerate, another round of rate rises can be expected next month.

Another round of interest rate rises  became a virtual certainty today, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the nation’s inflation rate is rising.

The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.5 per cent in the final three months of last year, to produce an annual headline inflation rate of 2.1 per cent.

That’s up from 1.3 per cent in the 12 months to the end of September.

The Reserve Bank aims to keep Australian’s inflation rate in a 2-3 per cent range, over the course of a business cycle.

However, it uses what it calls an underlying inflation rate, not the bureau’s raw CPI figures, to make its calculations.

And, on that measure, Australia’s inflation rate – at 3.6 per cent – is already above the bank’s target range.

The fact that if fell slightly – from a revised 3.7 per cent – at the end of the September quarter won’t help homebuyers avoid another rate rise.

As the private forecaster Access Economics noted earlier today, a point above the Reserve Bank’s tolerance line is not a good starting place, as an economic recovery gets under way.

“Interest rates will head up alongside the Australian and global recoveries, as they should,” Access director Chris Richardson said.

The Reserve Bank board will meet next Tuesday to review the bank’s marker rate, which now stands at 3.75 per cent.

Mr Richardson said that rate would probably hit 5 to 5.5 per cent by the first half of next year.

Other information, also released today, confirms that another rate rise, as early as next month, is now even more likely.

The Westpac Bank reported that its leading indicator, which points to the likely pace of economic activity over the coming three to nine months, surged in November.

Chris Richardson is speaking more frankly about the need for Federal spending cuts, than Kevin Rudd.

The Prime Minister has been delivering a rather obtuse message over the past week, warning that Australia’s productivity must rise over the years ahead, to offset the challenges that Australia’s rapidly ageing population will present to the Federal budget.

That baffled many people because productivity is a technical economists’ word meaning the relationship between output and industrial units of things like labour and capital.

Mr Richardson, a  former Treasury official, who now guides the private forecaster,  Access Economics,  would, certainly knows that. But the many of the people he might meet, on his  bus to work, would not.

Access, though, clearly endorses growing calls for cuts in Federal spending, saying they will be needed in both this year’s Federal budget and  the next,  noting that the first will come before the next Federal election and the second afterwards.

Make no mistake.

If the Federal government does make big cuts in its spending  this year, as Access recommends, your family’s finances will be affected too, one way or another.

In the private forecaster’s latest Business Outlook, published today, Richardson says this all comes down to a single word.

“Courage.”

Richardson has been around Canberra long enough to know that this word will set off alarms.

He would remember, too, that  Sir Humphrey Appleby, of the Yes Minister series,  defined “a courageous decision” by any government, as as one that will cost it the next election.

The forecasster’s message, on Federal spending, was blunt.

“There is a big need to save taxpayers’ money, because longer term Federal finances are skint,” it said.

In a string of speeches delivered around the nation, in the week leading up to Australia Day, Mr Rudd, virtually accepted that.

And, while he isn’t saying  much about spending cuts, his government has, in fact, already started to rein in its spending.

It has done that very quietly.

The cuts also go well beyond the gradual phasing out of its stimulus package, which is already well under way, as the Federal Treasurer, Wayne Swan, has noted.

Some changes go right to the heart of the system.

Australians, who believe they might be entitled to some payments from Centrelink,  for example, could once arrange a private meeting with an adviser from this welfare agency,to find out precisely what their entitlements are.

Now, people seeking that agency’s advice, are told to go to its website, instead,  to review their situation.

That’s no easy task, for a 63 year old Italian woman, who is not  all that familiar with English, let alone the internet.

The government will have no shortage of ideas, though, if  it does decide to cut spending in its May budget.

That’s because a Razor Gang, headed by the Federal Finance and Deregulation Minister, Lindsay Tanner, has been working quietly on proposed spending cuts, since last September.

Access says the Federal opposition, too, has responsibilities, when it comes to Federal spending cuts.

“…it is always…easy to argue for spending cuts in in general and to disagree with them in the particular,” it warns.

“So let’s hope that Canberra’s New Year resolution, on both sides of the Hill, is for a little extra courage, it adds.

What else, then, does Access see ahead?

• A “mild” recovery this year, rather than a “wild”  boom, for one thing.

That might dampen hopes in some places, like Western Australia, where the local newspaper is already predicting a return to roaring times, in the near future.

• Access says, too, that Australia will benefit from  a resurgence in China, which chalked up very strong growth last year.

But there will be a price, in the form of greater exposure to China, if anything goes wrong there.

“If China sneezes, Australia will catch pneumonia,” Access  says.

• Recovery in the retail sector will be muted, Access says, noting that Australia’s shopkeepers have already benefited greatly, from Federal stimulus spending.

• It says, too, that business will continue to be restrained by the banks, as they struggle to overcome setbacks suffered in the global financial crisis.

• It warned also that Australia’s interest rates would gradually return to  more normal levels, as the Australian economy gradually recovers.

More at www.accesseconomics.com.au

Australia’s married women do most of their paid work in their twenties and forties.

This is confirmed in research by Dr Lixin Cai, which the Productivity Commission has just published as part of its visiting academics program.

Economists have known for years that married women have been making ever bigger contributions to both Australia’s national economy and their own families’ finances for decades, by increasingly taking jobs outside their homes.

But detailed research on this important social and economic trend has been scarce.

That has meant that successive governments have found it hard to draw up appropriate policies to deal with this major social phenomenon.

Lixin Cai’s works will help to plug the gaps.

Her paper, called Work Choices of Married Women:Drivers of Change, adds much urgently needed detail to previous studies.

It shows, for example, that just 15 per cent of Australia’s married women take full time jobs outside the home, while they have a child under three.

And fewer than 18 per cent do so when they have even one child aged three to five.

Dr Cai’s research also shows that the participation of Australia’s married women in the nation’s workforce falls off rapidly above the age of 56.

Almost 47 per cent of married women, in that age group, do not take paid work outside their homes.

It is that figure, above all, that will grab Kevin Rudd’s attention.

The Prime Minister has been touring the country over the past week, telling Australians that the nation’s rapidly ageing population will put heavy pressure on Federal finances in the years ahead.

He wants all Australians – including married women – to remain financially independent as long as possible.   And for most of us, that means staying at work.

So don’t be too surprised, later this year, if the Rudd government offers some nice tax breaks to encourage older Australians to keep working.

Dr Cai’s conclusions may not be revolutionary, but they will be welcomed.

She confirms, for example, that the age of children, education levels, partners’ incomes and proficiency with English, all affect married women’s participation in Australia’s  workforce, as do age and health.

Her paper is not always an easy read for those who are not academics. But  Dr Cai publishes enough of her sums to allow her peers to tick, or fail, her work.

That must be respected.

There will still be strong public interest,though,  in Dr Cai’s conclusions.

That’s because she has much to say about the way married Australian women take full or part time employment, over the course of their life and family cycles.

She  reports, for example, that between the ages of 18 and 25,  43 per cent  of Australia’s married women have full time employment, while  23 per cent have part time work.

Only 34 per cent  in this age group, are not employed. (Some might be studying).

The proportion working full time drops to just 32 per cent, among  26 to 35 year olds, while another 34 per cent have  time jobs.

Once again 34 per cent do not have paid work.

Among  36 to 45 year olds, 30 per cent have  full time jobs, outside the home, while  45 per cent have part time employment.

Only 25 per cent do not have paid work.

With 46 to 55 year olds, 38 per cent have full time outside jobs, while another 39 per cent are working part time.

Only 23 per cent do not have paid jobs.

See the full report at www.pc.gov.au